Reasonable monthly/ annual returns

10% no, I have 20% curse. This time I actually first time reached and crossed 20% but before 18-19% was my limit before the fall. it is pure psychological problem.

mcyoyok posted:
    How about risking 10% to get 20-30% per month :
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/mcyoyok/project-4/103900

Its hard to break 10%...even 20% equity, just take a look :)

See other portfolio also.

cheers

Well see also :
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/mcyoyok/super-5-alpari/110530

If you like to have a 10% average / month with very low risk...I believe in extreme condition it will hard break 5% floating.

Or for a very2 low risk 5%/month....it will also hard to break 2.5% floating and so on :)

I always talk with data, and my data is all here :
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/mcyoyok

I can explain all the information, freely to PM me...I would like to talk about my money management system and the technique of my robots.

Surely if the investor knows what the inside of the engine, they will have the safety riding.

cheers

12% per month

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/iticsoftware/expert-advisor-toft/65539

previously i was so agressive, manage to earn > 60% a month. then the market fluctuated so much an I lost a lot.
earn big, lost big. I kept changing the lot size each time I got profit of USD200. Then it back fire...

now I choose moderate mode, target at 40% a month, hope I can achieve this for next monthsss to come.

uda7805 posted:
    previously i was so agressive, manage to earn > 60% a month. then the market fluctuated so much an I lost a lot.
earn big, lost big. I kept changing the lot size each time I got profit of USD200. Then it back fire...

now I choose moderate mode, target at 40% a month, hope I can achieve this for next monthsss to come.

Nice result...surely it will race with mine https://www.myfxbook.com/members/mcyoyok/project-4/103900 :)

goodluck

mcyoyok posted:
    

uda7805 posted:
    previously i was so agressive, manage to earn > 60% a month. then the market fluctuated so much an I lost a lot.
earn big, lost big. I kept changing the lot size each time I got profit of USD200. Then it back fire...

now I choose moderate mode, target at 40% a month, hope I can achieve this for next monthsss to come.

Nice result...surely it will race with mine https://www.myfxbook.com/members/mcyoyok/project-4/103900 :)

goodluck

good luck to you too. your's better than mine, low dd. I have huge dd, nearly busted. Not in anyway to race with you.
saw that big news will release on GBP, hope nothing really bad happen to all.

Oh 40% is a moderate? 😲

I am happy with 5-6%.

just need to break this 20% line

Best in the world does......Kadish....30% per annum.....

Chikot posted:
    Oh 40% is a moderate? 😲

I am happy with 5-6%.

i saw a lots of accounts that achieve > 100% a month, that's out of my mind. Tried to reach 100% before but too risky and nearly busted. I believe with this free-of-charge EA that I got from a friend, we can get average 50~70% but better stay low. I'm not full time trader, just spend 3-4 hours a day on fx. Thus I can't set target too high. 40% is realistic. Hope there is no other tsunami...

5-6% a month is good. 60~70% a year. No bank can give us this return.

As Fx manager, ussualy i followed investor request. If they want high return, risk will follow high. But if they want slow and steady result, then the risk can be minimize. Average return will be different for each person.

Do people actually realise just how HUGE a 5% monthly profit actually is?

Sure, if your forex account balance is $1000, it's going to take a long time until you're sipping cocktails on the beach with your laptop in front of you.

But if you have a relatively low risk profile and a more substantial account balance, 5% a month (consistently) is fantastic.

being profitable consistently is good enough. high returns mean high risk and eventually big dd or worse.
if I make 30-40% this year I will be very happy.

they do not get it. even 2-3% is great. This is why traders should not trade small accounts of small investors who have $10 000 and think trader can make them millioner.
btw, day trading stocks is more money efficient than trading Forex by far. I already can see it clearly.

yoohoo999 posted:
    Do people actually realise just how HUGE a 5% monthly profit actually is?

Sure, if your forex account balance is $1000, it's going to take a long time until you're sipping cocktails on the beach with your laptop in front of you.

But if you have a relatively low risk profile and a more substantial account balance, 5% a month (consistently) is fantastic.

with 2% risk no problem to manage 10-15 % monthly on average trading conservatively.

yoohoo999 posted:
    Do people actually realise just how HUGE a 5% monthly profit actually is?

Sure, if your forex account balance is $1000, it's going to take a long time until you're sipping cocktails on the beach with your laptop in front of you.

But if you have a relatively low risk profile and a more substantial account balance, 5% a month (consistently) is fantastic.

Hi,

I am fully agree with you. That's why i am always with 5% monthly return.

Regards,
SIM

The problem is that most of us here don't have the account balance to make 5% a moth enough to pay the bills, let alone live the millionaire-playboy lifestyle that we are after. That being said, what's reasonable depends on the risk taken to achieve it - making 5% a month whilst risking 10% per trade and trading 5 times a day is ridiculously inadequate.

People who look at the likes of Warren Buffett, who averages about 30% a year as a benchmark for traders forget that he is not a trader. He can count the number of transactions he makes every year on the fingers of one hand and his preferred holding time is 'forever'.

Here is a relevant quote from Buffett himself : 'If I was running $1 million today, or $10 million for that matter, I'd be fully invested. Anyone who says that size does not hurt investment performance is selling. The highest rates of return I've ever achieved were in the 1950s. I killed the Dow. You ought to see the numbers. But I was investing peanuts then. It's a huge structural advantage not to have a lot of money. I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could. I guarantee that.

The rest of us, who hold trades for hours, not years and who can jump into and out of positions without the market even knowing we exist have a huge advantage that most billion-dollar hedge fund managers don't and in principle we should be able to outperform them simply because we have a larger number of good opportunities available. That of course assumes the same skill level and access to information.

Now to answer the original question - In my view, 10% a month is reasonable with a risk of 1% - 1.5% per trade. Whenever I tried to do better by increasing the risk, the psychological effects of larger drawdowns started clouding my judgment, I started revenge trading to chase my losses and it blew up in my face with a spectacular equity nose dive. And when I tried to do better by trading more instruments I just stretched myself too thin and was unable to adequately manage my positions, which again led to big drawdowns (not as big as increasing risk per trade though...).

For Forex day traders about 4-5 pairs, 1-1.5% risk and 10% seems achievable and possible to maintain over a long period.

0AFK0 posted:
 The problem is that most of us here don't have the account balance to make 5% a moth enough to pay the bills, let alone live the millionaire-playboy lifestyle that we are after.

 Whenever I tried to do better by increasing the risk, the psychological effects of larger drawdowns started clouding my judgment

With the greatest of respect, I think your post highlights where the majority of retail forex traders are going wrong. I'm not aiming this at you directly, it's just that your post offers a good opportunity to raise a couple of related points.

If you are having to make high monthly returns 'to pay the bills' then you shouldn't really be making that cash from forex. I know it's not easy in the current economic climate, but your bills should be paid by something that carries less risk (i.e. a job!).

So, if you need 20% per month to pay the bills, why not get a job, save up some cash, and then when you return to forex with more capital you will only need to make 5% a month to pay the bills.

I think too many people see forex as an 'easy' way to make good money. I see it as the opposite. It's an easy way to LOSE good money!

You've also talked about the psychological effects of larger risk and drawdown - so again, why not capitalise yourself sufficiently so that you don't need to take higher risk?

Say, for example, a trader needs $2,000 per month to live.

Example 1.

He starts with a bank of $10,000. The trader needs to make 20% EVERY month just to survive. That's a hell of a lot of psychological pressure, never mind a tricky figure to reach!!

Example 2.

Trader starts with a bank of $40,000. The trader only needs to make 5% every month to survive.


Clearly, you've got to find that $40k to start with, which will be extremely difficult for many people. But the question still remains, should you be risking $10k of capital to make 20% per month just to pay the bills?

I'd just get a job instead and use the spare cash for forex.

I'm perhaps coming at this with a slightly different perspective though. I don't (and am never likely to) use forex to pay the bills. I'm a corporate finance lawyer, so forex is a hobby related (indirectly) to my work, which I really enjoy and helps to pay for nice things when I have a good quarter/year.

I can't imagine how hard trading must be to pay the bills, and I admire people who are able to bear the psychological burden.

I think that under capitalisation is one of the leading causes of good traders going bust. You can have the best strategy in the world, but when you're trying to achieve monthly figures which are putting a large amount of your capital at risk, it's a disaster waiting to happen.

In an ideal world......high capital, low monthly return, low risk, minimal DD.

But hey, if we lived in an ideal world we wouldn't be risking money on forex eh?!! ;)

The truth is, it is not guaranteed that after putting aside those hard earned money to be able to pay bills with 5% monthly return the guy will not lose it all as having funds to trade doe snot mean the skills is there...
If someone doe snot have the funds to make a living the only way is to develop skills. Smaller amounts than those that Buffet has doe snot mean that trader should aim at doubling tripling accounts as math is not working like this. 30-50% annually would be great and would certainly attract investors thus making good life for them and for the trader who possess necessary skills to make such returns consistently without risk of blowing up.

yoohoo999 posted:
    

0AFK0 posted:
 The problem is that most of us here don't have the account balance to make 5% a moth enough to pay the bills, let alone live the millionaire-playboy lifestyle that we are after.

 Whenever I tried to do better by increasing the risk, the psychological effects of larger drawdowns started clouding my judgment

With the greatest of respect, I think your post highlights where the majority of retail forex traders are going wrong. I'm not aiming this at you directly, it's just that your post offers a good opportunity to raise a couple of related points.

If you are having to make high monthly returns 'to pay the bills' then you shouldn't really be making that cash from forex. I know it's not easy in the current economic climate, but your bills should be paid by something that carries less risk (i.e. a job!).

So, if you need 20% per month to pay the bills, why not get a job, save up some cash, and then when you return to forex with more capital you will only need to make 5% a month to pay the bills.

I think too many people see forex as an 'easy' way to make good money. I see it as the opposite. It's an easy way to LOSE good money!

You've also talked about the psychological effects of larger risk and drawdown - so again, why not capitalise yourself sufficiently so that you don't need to take higher risk?

Say, for example, a trader needs $2,000 per month to live.

Example 1.

He starts with a bank of $10,000. The trader needs to make 20% EVERY month just to survive. That's a hell of a lot of psychological pressure, never mind a tricky figure to reach!!

Example 2.

Trader starts with a bank of $40,000. The trader only needs to make 5% every month to survive.


Clearly, you've got to find that $40k to start with, which will be extremely difficult for many people. But the question still remains, should you be risking $10k of capital to make 20% per month just to pay the bills?

I'd just get a job instead and use the spare cash for forex.

I'm perhaps coming at this with a slightly different perspective though. I don't (and am never likely to) use forex to pay the bills. I'm a corporate finance lawyer, so forex is a hobby related (indirectly) to my work, which I really enjoy and helps to pay for nice things when I have a good quarter/year.

I can't imagine how hard trading must be to pay the bills, and I admire people who are able to bear the psychological burden.

I think that under capitalisation is one of the leading causes of good traders going bust. You can have the best strategy in the world, but when you're trying to achieve monthly figures which are putting a large amount of your capital at risk, it's a disaster waiting to happen.

In an ideal world......high capital, low monthly return, low risk, minimal DD.

But hey, if we lived in an ideal world we wouldn't be risking money on forex eh?!! ;)