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Use of martingale strategy
以前的 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 .. 15 下一步
mayanksaini11

从……加入成为会员 Sep 23, 2010  19个发言 Mayank Saini (mayanksaini11) Nov 16 2010 at 14:45
hmm, underlying system is important.

Everything belongs to God!
ttfx

从……加入成为会员 May 30, 2010  23个发言 Tom (ttfx) Nov 16 2010 at 15:14 (最后编辑时间Nov 16 2010 at 15:22 )
mayanksaini11 posted:
    hmm, underlying system is important.


it's not only important - it's the only thing that matters. Any long-term losing trading system with martingale will behave the same way in the long run: the sum of account blowouts will always exceed the sum of money withdrawn from its previous profits. And if the system is profitable as-is, its gains can be maximized with a lot of safe money management strategies. In fact, ANY money management approach (whether it's martingale or not) will NOT save any system with negative expectancy; I recommend Van K. Tharp's books to anyone who would like to get a clear insight in this.

But if my trade goes wrong and I decide to take some action (for example google Nanningbob's Recovery) in sync with market conditions and DON'T OVERSHOOT MY GLOBAL RISK CRITERIA, then it can be an another story. But that's no martingale anymore - it's a part of the TRADING system.

trading
Karlo

从……加入成为会员 Oct 09, 2010  5个发言 Karlo (Karlo) Nov 27 2010 at 16:56
Using martingale without other techniques to make it survivable is a losing method. It can last a few months or years but, the chances of it lasting more than 5 years is less than 5%.

Trading since 1988.

Trading is half luck, which you have no control over. However, you do have control over the other half.
ttfx

从……加入成为会员 May 30, 2010  23个发言 Tom (ttfx) Nov 27 2010 at 17:28 (最后编辑时间Nov 27 2010 at 17:40 )
Hi Karlo,

seeing this is your 1st post here, welcome :-). Wow, since '88 ? A lot of respect to you.


    Using martingale without other techniques to make it survivable is a losing method.

Yep. A Big Truth. But there's so many people persisting in blindness.


    It can last a few months or years but, the chances of it lasting more than 5 years is less than 5%.

This depends on initial trade size. It can last more than that and/or have a higher probability of not blowing the entire account. But would I initially trade one microlot with a million dollar account if I knew it is prone to kill it? Even if the chance would be 1% in 100 years; that event might come just tomorrow. Am I willing to watch huge drawdowns shooting for a few bucks?

No thanks. The profits aimed for never outweigh the risk with martingale. And due to unpredictable exponential drawdown, it makes position sizing (compounding) difficult. We never know if this tiny stupid trade we've entered is a killer one or not.



trading
Karlo

从……加入成为会员 Oct 09, 2010  5个发言 Karlo (Karlo) Nov 27 2010 at 19:05
If a trader could stay with tiny tiny trade sizes in relation to NAV, he could survive but, he wont be able to do that. There is too much temptation. That is why I stretched the survivors to 5%, because there are some rare traders that can stay so small in trade size. I use a version of marty myself but, with a lot of modification.

Trading is half luck, which you have no control over. However, you do have control over the other half.
ttfx

从……加入成为会员 May 30, 2010  23个发言 Tom (ttfx) Nov 27 2010 at 19:48 (最后编辑时间Nov 27 2010 at 19:51 )
Karlo posted:
    If a trader could stay with tiny tiny trade sizes in relation to NAV, he could survive but, he wont be able to do that. There is too much temptation..

Wise words.. if there were only the math (and no psychological) issues involved in practical trading, it would be a bit different animal ;-).. May I have a question? What markets do you trade/were trading?

trading
Karlo

从……加入成为会员 Oct 09, 2010  5个发言 Karlo (Karlo) Nov 28 2010 at 08:12

ttfx posted:
    Karlo posted:
    If a trader could stay with tiny tiny trade sizes in relation to NAV, he could survive but, he wont be able to do that. There is too much temptation..

Wise words.. if there were only the math (and no psychological) issues involved in practical trading, it would be a bit different animal ;-).. May I have a question? What markets do you trade/were trading?


Currently Shorting USD/CHF, Shorting EUR/AUD, & Shorting EUR/USD. Trading very small size relative to NAV. Being very cautious on the USD/CHF and EUR/AUD Shorts since they have more potential to move up fast at this point.

Thanks for the Welcome.

Trading is half luck, which you have no control over. However, you do have control over the other half.
Youngmogul86

从……加入成为会员 Nov 24, 2010  6个发言 Youngmogul86 Nov 30 2010 at 08:37
Hey Karlo,

Welcome to the forum... Im new here as well, just a week or two since I found this great tool... I have a question thats off subject, but it seems odd to me... You are short the eurusd, AND short the usdchf? why not just short eur/chf? Saves the capital from being tied up in two seperate trades that are both going to be affected in the same direction.. Secondly.. You have traded forex since 88?! HOLY SHIZA! Thats amazing.. because everyone I have ever spoke with that traded in the 80's and 90's... well, 1. They are loaded... 2. Have absolutly NO time to search the internet to discuss martingale strategies...

The truth is.. If the 1R(amount risked)<=1 Then its a bad trade PERIOD.... No matter how many times you allow yourself to 'double down'... No form of bet manipulation is or ever has proven profitable EVER over the long term. What has proven profitable? ACCURACY, EDUCATION, DISCIPLINE, PATIENCE. I'l be the first to tell you about statistics if you would like to know more.. I've made myself a bundle, lost that bundle... and now pay my bills with forex money... i'm 24. Don't fall victim to people who try to sell you on a betting strategy when trading.. Thats the difference between a pro and an amateur... An ameteur has no consistency in his risk base... He judges his lot size by how 'sure' he is of the move... And aims for different amounts of pips based on lack of emotional control... He closes the trade once it is half the way to the 'goal' (if he has one) for fear of the line turning around.... A pro... Risks the same or close to the same thing EVERY trade... Uses position sizing as a TOOL manipulating the risked % of NAV to be achieved at different distances from entry... And if the trade turns around.. It doesnt matter... He will be accurate 55%+ of the time... And is satisfied with 110 winning trades and 90 losing trades a month.


ghanima

从……加入成为会员 Dec 13, 2010  9个发言 ghanima Dec 13 2010 at 13:32
you can't make a rule of how a good trader behaves

anyway, martingale is crazy, I keep at distance. There are so many other tools, why risk losin my mind

paulng

从……加入成为会员 Aug 13, 2010  43个发言 Paul Ng (paulng) Dec 22 2010 at 12:07
I've learned a lot from you guys, and have been experimenting with multisize concepts. It seems to me that there are 2 opposing categories to multisize a position. One expects price to breakout from a range, and the other expects a retracement after the trend or impulse.

I've the theoretical results of both prototypes on my blog, where there are no losing months in all the 10 years of EURUSD data. You can say that there are no losing trades if we regard the whole series of steps as one bundle position. The position begins with a small size of 0.1 lot, but requires an enormous capital of $100,000, to standby for a series of wrong steps. The more steps you want to be able to withstand, the more capital you require for the ever increasing size of the position. Furthermore, due to spreads, slippage and/or commissions, it requires more than just doubling in size. I don't have such money to test live, and even if I have the money, I don't have the courage to risk such a huge amount for the 'steady' small profits. The reward-to-risk does not appeal to my personality. With that large amount of money, I will prefer to try other concepts and fail 10x $10,000, than to worry constantly that the next trade might just be the one to exceed what my account balance can handle.

Let's see if I can attach the pictures.

<a href='' target='_blank'><img src=''/></a>

<a href='' target='_blank'><img src=''/></a>

If the pictures fail to appear, you can go to my blog, click on the picture to enlarge and view it. http://paul-autotrade.blogspot.com/

The concept of exiting at breakeven after triggering a certain number of 'steps' is very interesting, and may be very useful in modifying the 2 prototypes. I have a question for folks who are good at programming EA: how do I see the overall P&L for my positions?

Do I need to OrderSelect one by one and sum up the OrderProfit()? Or is there an easier way to see the P&L so that I can close all the positions?

Cheers,
Paul
附件:

"The first rule of forecasting should be that the unforeseen keeps making the future unforeseeable." - David McCasland (January 5,2012, Our Daily Bread)
以前的 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 .. 15 下一步
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