aud/usd !!!! what's ur problem?!?!?!?!

hello guys,

this pair make me crazy... i dropped all my other pairs n am gonna focus only on aud.usd... currently...

am totally bearish on this pair... everything showing south bias... but this pair is still pushing higher...

i believe it will crash ... but the question is when... n why?!! am searching for the trigger for the sell off of that pair...

i will do everything i can to analyse this pair...

so if anyone had some useful thoughts n had some interests in this pair ....

please share ur knowledge...

i will do the same ... when ever i have some thoughts i will share them here...

so be my guest ;)

'Lee Hardman, FX analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that Australia has been one of the losers from Japan’s efforts to devalue the yen with the trade-weighted Australian dollar rising to a new post float record high as investors intensify the search for yield. '

finally good reason for aud/usd action!

I believe the culprit behind this new round of excessive NZD and AUD strength is Chinese and Japanese retail investors in search of higher yields. Japan has one of the world’s largest pools of retail savings and its investors can exert a powerful influence on the prices of foreign assets and currencies.

many analysts said... the boost only coz of speculators not coz of real buyers... they still hold on sell the rally... but the question still remain is when n why?!!

ok....

technical view...

https://www.myfxbook.com/forex-charts/AUDUSD-H1/11802

what do u think?!!

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.94 as 34% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.88; 35% of open positions were long. Long positions are 11.5% lower than yesterday and 28.5% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 8.5% lower than yesterday and 44.5% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 9.6% lower than yesterday and 1.8% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the AUDUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday but unchanged since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.

trade what you see not what you think..90% of all traders are trying to pick top and bottom and only 10% following the trend of the market.if you are a long term trader then stick with you actual strategy based on the fundamentals but if you are a day trader...follow the big players to succeed.

only dead fishes following the stream...

aud/usd erased half of it gains today...

i will keep my positions ... and am still very bearish...

first target 1.04

second target 1.03

final target 1.02

wish me luck ;)

ok nice.... bearish divergence and bearish candle at daily TF.

if that divergence is valid... the target is 1.025

I know this sounds bad but many people concentrate on the wrong thing while trading. They don't understand the market structure cause if they did they would look at it much different. known fact 90-95% of traders lose people search for a winning system the 5-10% that are winning. Why not just trade against the loser? Take alot of the work out of trading. If your having trouble finding the loser and your acct balance is dropping look in the mirror. I am not trying to be mean or rude just stating the truth it used to be me till i realized this and learned how to spot where the loser will lose. but hey i just took first in the last contest here so what do I know.

sfx_systems posted:
AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.94 as 34% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.88; 35% of open positions were long. Long positions are 11.5% lower than yesterday and 28.5% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 8.5% lower than yesterday and 44.5% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 9.6% lower than yesterday and 1.8% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the AUDUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday but unchanged since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.

Why u quoted from FXCM dailyfx plus ?

forexmaxims posted:
I know this sounds bad but many people concentrate on the wrong thing while trading. They don't understand the market structure cause if they did they would look at it much different. known fact 90-95% of traders lose people search for a winning system the 5-10% that are winning. Why not just trade against the loser? Take alot of the work out of trading. If your having trouble finding the loser and your acct balance is dropping look in the mirror. I am not trying to be mean or rude just stating the truth it used to be me till i realized this and learned how to spot where the loser will lose. but hey i just took first in the last contest here so what do I know.

thanks for ur comments but i guess we start to deviate from the topic... if u had any experiences please share it in practical regarding the aud/usd pair only ;)

I am sorry but i was replying to the title of au what is your problem? giving me the feeling there is something wrong with aud/usd most of the time there is no problem with the pair itself but more a problem with the person. the market doesnt follow what you want , it does what it wants and you must change to what its doing.

thats true....

am totally with u in that...

the market does what he wants...

we were discussing here what we think the market will do ...

i was explaining why am bearish on it fundamentally n technically... some share their bullish sentimentally views about it...

i didnt see u talking about the pair from any side ' technically, fundamentally nor sentimentally..'

anyway u most welcome...

please keep sharing ur thoughts...

sfx_systems posted:
AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.94 as 34% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.88; 35% of open positions were long. Long positions are 11.5% lower than yesterday and 28.5% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 8.5% lower than yesterday and 44.5% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 9.6% lower than yesterday and 1.8% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the AUDUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday but unchanged since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.

according to myfxbook... short ratios moved from around 75% to 55% on Friday... i hope that will help on the bearish bias.. since we have more buyers now....

ok looking at the chart i would be a buyer on dips order flow is long right now in the mid to long term
 losers are shorting

lol wish u luck!!!

btw... some majors news coming this week may change the whole game...

looking at 4hr daily and especially weekly chart i would be a buyer 4hr right at old resistance becoming new support i beleive usd will weaken shooting au even higher right along with the yen weakening

'In foreign exchange markets, the yen had depreciated a little further over the past month and the pound sterling had continued to depreciate, reflecting the recent run of weak economic data as well as the UK's sovereign credit downgrade. The Australian dollar was slightly lower against the US dollar and on a trade-weighted basis in February, but it remained at a high level.'

'members judged that there would be scope to cut the cash rate further to support demand, should that be necessary.'

quoted from 'Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board
Melbourne - 5 March 2013'.




note: feb price : open: 1.04 close: 1.02