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US Elections
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xgavinc

Member Since May 11, 2011  213 posts xgavinc Oct 31 2016 at 21:22
xgavinc posted:
DrVodka posted:
if Trumps wins USD will drop for like 10 % , thats what a hear


And HRC a drop of 20%?

Let's be honest, anyone believing anything from HRC needs a reality check. Disregarding votes, ask who you would trust more to invest your money for you. I would not trust HRC with a dime of my money, but I would trust DT with no more than a Dollar.



I'm retracting my last statement about DT... I would invest more than a dollar with him. The facts from people with nothing to gain is a priority in my books. I'm going to take a stab at it, but if DT wins, I believe sentiment will be bullish on the dollar. (Don't take my word for it though, make your own conclusions).

For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
TiffanyK

Member Since Feb 12, 2016  100 posts TiffanyK Nov 02 2016 at 07:34
Of course, presidential races don't occur in a vacuum, and statistics based on previous elections in no way guarantee what will happen in 2016. On average, the first year of a new presidential term sees the markets rise by 6%. That's below the 7.5% average for all years (going back to 1928), but still a positive signal.

If your strategy has a backup plan, I don’t see how the elections can affect your trading results.

Hope that can help new or unsecure traders :) Cheers!

xgavinc

Member Since May 11, 2011  213 posts xgavinc Nov 02 2016 at 10:11
TiffanyK posted:
Of course, presidential races don't occur in a vacuum, and statistics based on previous elections in no way guarantee what will happen in 2016. On average, the first year of a new presidential term sees the markets rise by 6%. That's below the 7.5% average for all years (going back to 1928), but still a positive signal.

If your strategy has a backup plan, I don’t see how the elections can affect your trading results.

Hope that can help new or unsecure traders :) Cheers!


I also believe this to be the case, first year hype on promises from new president strengthens the currency and the following 3 years depend on delivery of those promises. I also believe, It's ingrained in successful businessmen to beat the bush and deliver and for politicians to beat around the bush and fall short on delivery (this is a proven fact). So regardless of any accusations (a lot of which is / was childish bickering), I think overall Trump would have a greater positive impact on the market based on delivery alone, and Hillary will stifle any progress by conforming to political agenda's.

For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
CliveCampbell

Member Since Oct 01, 2015  47 posts Clive (CliveCampbell) Nov 09 2016 at 07:06
xgavinc posted:
TiffanyK posted:
Of course, presidential races don't occur in a vacuum, and statistics based on previous elections in no way guarantee what will happen in 2016. On average, the first year of a new presidential term sees the markets rise by 6%. That's below the 7.5% average for all years (going back to 1928), but still a positive signal.

If your strategy has a backup plan, I don’t see how the elections can affect your trading results.

Hope that can help new or unsecure traders :) Cheers!


I also believe this to be the case, first year hype on promises from new president strengthens the currency and the following 3 years depend on delivery of those promises. I also believe, It's ingrained in successful businessmen to beat the bush and deliver and for politicians to beat around the bush and fall short on delivery (this is a proven fact). So regardless of any accusations (a lot of which is / was childish bickering), I think overall Trump would have a greater positive impact on the market based on delivery alone, and Hillary will stifle any progress by conforming to political agenda's.


If I understood correctly, you expect the dollar to strengthen its positions against other major currencies if Trump wins and vice versa if Hilary wins?

JacoAF

Member Since Jun 14, 2013  94 posts Jaco Ferreira (JacoAF) Nov 09 2016 at 08:05
Wow... Trump as US President.... Good luck America, you gonna need it with that clown as president.... just my personal opinion....

Keep it simple, be disciplined, get rich slowly and above all protect your equity!
xgavinc

Member Since May 11, 2011  213 posts xgavinc Nov 09 2016 at 09:10
CliveCampbell posted:
xgavinc posted:
TiffanyK posted:
Of course, presidential races don't occur in a vacuum, and statistics based on previous elections in no way guarantee what will happen in 2016. On average, the first year of a new presidential term sees the markets rise by 6%. That's below the 7.5% average for all years (going back to 1928), but still a positive signal.

If your strategy has a backup plan, I don’t see how the elections can affect your trading results.

Hope that can help new or unsecure traders :) Cheers!


I also believe this to be the case, first year hype on promises from new president strengthens the currency and the following 3 years depend on delivery of those promises. I also believe, It's ingrained in successful businessmen to beat the bush and deliver and for politicians to beat around the bush and fall short on delivery (this is a proven fact). So regardless of any accusations (a lot of which is / was childish bickering), I think overall Trump would have a greater positive impact on the market based on delivery alone, and Hillary will stifle any progress by conforming to political agenda's.


If I understood correctly, you expect the dollar to strengthen its positions against other major currencies if Trump wins and vice versa if Hilary wins?


My medium to long term view yes, I'm looking at least for March 2017, short term negative view on Trump win due to sentiment but as the cog starts to turn on policy implementation I see a rise. Erratic conditions immediate term.

For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
TiffanyK

Member Since Feb 12, 2016  100 posts TiffanyK Nov 09 2016 at 11:03
CliveCampbell posted:
xgavinc posted:
TiffanyK posted:
Of course, presidential races don't occur in a vacuum, and statistics based on previous elections in no way guarantee what will happen in 2016. On average, the first year of a new presidential term sees the markets rise by 6%. That's below the 7.5% average for all years (going back to 1928), but still a positive signal.

If your strategy has a backup plan, I don’t see how the elections can affect your trading results.

Hope that can help new or unsecure traders :) Cheers!


I also believe this to be the case, first year hype on promises from new president strengthens the currency and the following 3 years depend on delivery of those promises. I also believe, It's ingrained in successful businessmen to beat the bush and deliver and for politicians to beat around the bush and fall short on delivery (this is a proven fact). So regardless of any accusations (a lot of which is / was childish bickering), I think overall Trump would have a greater positive impact on the market based on delivery alone, and Hillary will stifle any progress by conforming to political agenda's.


If I understood correctly, you expect the dollar to strengthen its positions against other major currencies if Trump wins and vice versa if Hilary wins?


Hi Clive, I was talking in general (not saying “ if Trump wins…”, “If Hilary wins … “ ). This I found when I was reading about the US Elections effect on the currencies. It doesn’t matter who exactly will win – this was just from the statistics.

P.S. At this moment Trump is leading, not what everyone was expecting smiley

RPatell

Member Since Apr 17, 2015  64 posts Raj (RPatell) Nov 09 2016 at 11:11
xgavinc posted:
CliveCampbell posted:
xgavinc posted:
TiffanyK posted:
Of course, presidential races don't occur in a vacuum, and statistics based on previous elections in no way guarantee what will happen in 2016. On average, the first year of a new presidential term sees the markets rise by 6%. That's below the 7.5% average for all years (going back to 1928), but still a positive signal.

If your strategy has a backup plan, I don’t see how the elections can affect your trading results.

Hope that can help new or unsecure traders :) Cheers!


I also believe this to be the case, first year hype on promises from new president strengthens the currency and the following 3 years depend on delivery of those promises. I also believe, It's ingrained in successful businessmen to beat the bush and deliver and for politicians to beat around the bush and fall short on delivery (this is a proven fact). So regardless of any accusations (a lot of which is / was childish bickering), I think overall Trump would have a greater positive impact on the market based on delivery alone, and Hillary will stifle any progress by conforming to political agenda's.


If I understood correctly, you expect the dollar to strengthen its positions against other major currencies if Trump wins and vice versa if Hilary wins?


My medium to long term view yes, I'm looking at least for March 2017, short term negative view on Trump win due to sentiment but as the cog starts to turn on policy implementation I see a rise. Erratic conditions immediate term.


Yes, and you are right - this is what is happening now as Trump is the winner. Erratic conditions. I got surprised personally of the result.

Knowledge is king!
RichardBills

Member Since Mar 25, 2015  74 posts Richard Bills (RichardBills) Nov 09 2016 at 13:49
To add a quick point - it's also about the supply and demand for the dollar. Will there be an increase in inflation now with Trump on the lead? How the falling oil prices will affect the dollar strength? These are some of the questions I am asking myself to determine the next opportunity smiley

xgavinc

Member Since May 11, 2011  213 posts xgavinc Nov 09 2016 at 15:31
RichardBills posted:
To add a quick point - it's also about the supply and demand for the dollar. Will there be an increase in inflation now with Trump on the lead? How the falling oil prices will affect the dollar strength? These are some of the questions I am asking myself to determine the next opportunity smiley


Other than US interest rate I don't think there is anything else for us this year. Trump will start Jan 20th (sworn in), and will most likely only get the ball rolling from March. Inflation is lagging, so a Trump impact won't be seen till much later, if it is a concern for you, keep focus on Obama for next inflation figures, not Trump.

For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
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