great progress!

cateful posted:
    A possible cashing-in scenario:

UK devalues the pound due to its budget deficit and economy. I don't see this happening in the immediate future but there might come a time when they would start considering this. When this happens I will get out.

If ECB unexpected hike rates, I will get out. If Greece problem is solved, I can't say I will get out ex ante but I will certainly consider it.


Looks like you've got it all covered! It's good you have a clear trading plan.

I don't see any issue with the way the growth is calculated. How can you count unrealized growth as growth? That's not the same thing.

Not much to update. Still holding the EURGBP short position, added to it twice on the reaction up. Timing was not perfect but now that the Greece bailout plan has fallen apart I think we will see the down move resuming soon. I was asked why I didn't close the trade on the reaction, and why I keep the position when it was losing money on the 200+ pip reaction. The answer is simple. Europe is still a mess compared to UK. The PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) have serious fiscal problems and they have no way to solve it. The euro rallied when the news of a bailout is being put together by the EU came out. But it is a no brainer to trade against it. Like the legend Paul Tudor Jones said once, 'whenever you have 8 people sit together to come to an agreement, wild horses can't keep me from betting against them succeeding in that.'

Doolittle posted:
    After reading your article, My Trading Method, on Hexun Forex Forum, I came to this site. Your performance has really amazed me and significantly boosted my confidence as a full-time trader. Thank you and you are my hero.
I've got a lot to learn from you. Wish you could answer my questions at your conveniece.
First of all, about stop-loss. It seems that you do not use hard stop-loss, since your record shows sometimes you lose only several pips and other times more than one hundred pips. In your Hexun post, you stressed the importance of controling risk, giving an example of AUDJPY. So my question is: how you decide when to exit a losing trade? My feeling is that, if you exit a losing trade only after a fundamental reversal has already taken place, then it might be too late.
Second, what's your maximum leverage level? What do you mean when you say '3/5 positions' or '5/5 positions?'
Thanks again.
BTW, you mentioned that you had used another ID on Hexun. I'm wondering if you've written any articles using that old ID? If yes, could you tell me where I can read them?



Thanks for the nice words!

I have a pre-determined stop loss for each campaign, this gives me flexibility as to when to close an individual trade. I don't actually put the stop orders in. But I make sure they're taken care of. I do take losses. I love taking small losses but I absolutely hate big losses. I won't allow it. 100 pips in a volatile pair like EURUSD is nothing, it is one day's range. It is a risk I can take. 500 pips would not be acceptable. That being said, I'd like to point out that because my starting position is generally minuscular, a few hundred pip in the red wouldn't really do much to my account. So if anyone asks me for a piece of advice, I'd say start small and think long term. You also have to realize losing is part of the game, it is the cost of doing business.

I do exit a trade BEFORE a fundamental shift. This is discretionary. For example I just closed out all my shorts at/around 8680 level with a healthy profit. If you look at the fundamentals nothing has changed much. But I did it because: 1. I need to close it for a fund administration issue. 2. I think right now EURGBP is not the best pair to express my view on Europe. (Look at EURAUD)

My maximum leverage level if I remembered right was 1:10. I only used it once for the past 2 years. 3/5 positions means that my plan is to have X units of XYZ, but because price doesn't always go as expected, I end up getting only 3/5(60%) of X units. I used 3/5, 5/5 instead of 60%, 100% only because I am a lazy typer and hate holding down the shift key:P

You can add me at QQ 1042863.

And Happy Chinese New Year!