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The Martingale strategy i good?

Sep 25, 2013 at 20:49
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135 Replies
forex_trader_136673
Členem od Jun 28, 2013   852 příspěvků
Nov 29, 2013 at 16:55
The basics of martingale is to risk more than can win.

By doubling the position every time the markets go against the trader, is also increases risk. If the trader has very deep pockets, then it is almost a risk free strategy. But no one has pockets that deep. If markets range then it is OK, the strategy will give returns, but sometimes markets can trend of an extended period of time.

Excample: If the trader doubles the position every 80 pips, it needs for the market to move only 800 pips (ten times) for the trader to increase the position from 1,000 to 1,023,000. (1+2+4+8+16+32+64+128+256+512). Remember, when open the last position, 512 lots, there are 9 open positions on floating loss.

One of the first thing I learned on trading is: cut your losses short and let profits run. Martingale doesn't obey that rule, so to me is a big NO GO.
Členem od Jun 28, 2011   465 příspěvků
Nov 29, 2013 at 18:41
'Those are not good charts at this time. One is locked out as private and the other one showed DD.'

Sorry professor, wrong link, here are the right ones.

Phoenix Program Testing Account
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/ForexAssistant/mt4-6040547/570955

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/ForexAssistant/phoenix/570955
 
Pegasus
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/ForexAssistant/pegasus/670938

To down load the programs so you can run them yourself, you have to go to TheSafeInvestor.com and follow the directions to request the program be sent to you. It's free to run on a demo, help yourself.

The martingale is not a trading system, it is a recovery system, and is profitable if you limit the iteration to 8 or so and if it fails you use the long term recovery. See the problem here is that people learn a little about something, get burnt because they only know a little and are afraid to try again to learn how it is done right. If you don't know what a quick recovery system is and how it works in conjunction with the long term recovery, then you are right, don't use a martingale or any kind of recovery system. If you are not willing to learn about these programs and how they really work, do not use these systems. Trading is about learning and what I read on these forums is mostly young traders want something handed to them and refuse to take the time to learn how to make the systems work properly.

I had some workers workers in Nicaragua doing some work for me on a real estate investment. They were afraid to touch a wire that was embedded in a wall that wasn't attached to anything, it was dead but they were still afraid of it. I touched it myself to show it was dead but these grown men were still afraid. I showed them that it was just a piece of plain wire but they were still afraid of getting shocked on a piece of wire that they could see both ends.

Fear and lack of education makes people do and say things that seem stupid to others that have learned about the subject but really, if you don't know what you are doing and what you are talking about, the workers were right, don't touch it. They teach their friends “don't touch it, it will hurt you... and they all miss out on the benefits and so do their equally uneducated friends.

It is unwise to listen to what someone says is a good program and that you should risk your money on it. It is equally unwise to listen to someone who is teaching you their fears and then you avoid learning and using something simply because someone says its bad...

The various recovery systems that people are talking about here and on other forums is old and have been replaced years ago with modified systems that do work. But the workers are still talking about something that has scared them in the past and are stuck on a word or a fear.

This from an old man, if you don't know how it works, don't use it, but it is wrong, evil, to talk good or bad about something that you really don't know about. All of this stuff is in a book, read... and stop listing to other peoples fears.

Learn before you earn, but this is the wrong place to do it. Anyone can post their opinion here but opinions are like rectums, everyone has one, it is just that some stink.

Bob

 
where research touches lives.
forex_trader_136673
Členem od Jun 28, 2013   852 příspěvků
Nov 29, 2013 at 19:11
Real money traders don't need advice from DEMO GUYS or CAR SALESMEN.
Členem od Jun 28, 2011   465 příspěvků
Nov 29, 2013 at 21:14
Of course not because you are already so great and wonderful.
Oh Yes, please stay away from that terrible research stuff. After all, if you can't do it, obviously it can't be done and anyone who disagrees should be properly bullied into submission by the only one who could possibly know anything on this board. What the hell was I thinking to venture an observation in the presence of my betters. Pleeease forgive me...
where research touches lives.
forex_trader_136673
Členem od Jun 28, 2013   852 příspěvků
Nov 29, 2013 at 21:41
I'm not great and never said I am. But I am not desperate. You are.


Who needs research from people who do the research can benefit themselves. Who need to buy EA-s from people who don't win from EA-s themselves. You are a car salesman, who uses blogs for marketing. This is the room for traders.


You bothered me before, I asked you before for real account, you send statements for the year 2007, it is the last month of 2013. Wake up. Even your demos are not impressive.

I am bullying someone who know anything? You say to yourself 'In the presence of my betters'. Big LOL.
Členem od Jun 28, 2011   465 příspěvků
Nov 29, 2013 at 22:37
Actually, you are what we consider evil. You try to hurt others who have never done you harm. You and others like you troll the boards to try to beat up on anyone that you can. I have no respect for bullies. Not on the playground and not on the internet. You are so very brave with your name calling hiding behind the anonymity of the internet. Name calling? Really? How old are you?

Of course I don't really have any problem being called a car salesman, without someone to sell the cars, we would all still be walking. I have said before and will repeat this one more time, I don't sell anything, not even the programs that I create. Nothing to individuals.

I am looking for an intelligent marketer or business person who can see the value of my work and wishes to market it, yes, but you don't have enough money to buy the rights to my research so why do you continue to go on unless you are a troll. A bully that just wants to hurt someone so you can feel better about yourself.

Now ask yourself, is that what you want out of life, to be a cyber bully? Isn't there anything more to you than that? Think about what you are saying and most importantly, why. I don't want anything from you. You can't afford to do business with me so I am not going to show you live accounts or anything that is none of your business. No one has too answer to you no matter how aggressive your tactics. You don't own this board and we are not doing business so there is no point for you to continue, but I just know you will.

However, if there is anyone who has several hundreds of thousands of dollars and would like several ultra stable fully automated programs to market or whatever you would want to do with, please feel free to write to me and I will be happy to meet with you in person and show you all the proof and research behind the work that you could ever want. These programs can do what no human could and rights can be purchased for individual systems or all four programs.

Do you see how I would really doubt that anyone from my market audience would be reading this. It would be nice but those that would be interested in doing business with me aren't here so it just doesn't make sense to waist my time. I am here to help newbies and I will stay here regardless of your attempts to intimidate me, I don't intimidate and will reply to your hostility with the same until you grow up.

Bob
where research touches lives.
forex_trader_136673
Členem od Jun 28, 2013   852 příspěvků
Nov 29, 2013 at 23:12
The thread is about Martingale strategy, not you products.


Car salesmen, i call people who make others sick trying to sell something. You said in this comment 'I don't sell anything' but previous comment 'It will sell my book for $29.95'. 'My EA license is free for demo accounts'

I wrote a comment about Martingale, you call me you don't know anythin, listen this listen that. You said 'Fear and lack of education makes people do and say things that seem stupid to others that have learned'

You are the one who is scared, you did give up on trading in 2007-2008 and are desperate to sell a book or an EA. If you had a winning EA you would trade your money. Of course you need several thousand dollars, others money.

You have no idea about math or martingale, everyone can copy paste a book. Even your demos are not impressive. Rise on luxor is -18,715.40 pips on open position loss. (-1,419.60 loss biggest position) and you call that stable strategy. And you call others bully.

Please... everyone who reads this will know. You are the one who asking for several thousand. You have nothing to show and you call yourself with knowledge and 'presence of my betters'. No one needs your betters, this is the site to share trading strategies and you have nothing to share.


I don't have to be aggressive to you for you to show a real account. This is not the site where people opload their accounts under threat. You have none. Do business with me and I will show you my real account. LOL
forex_trader_136673
Členem od Jun 28, 2013   852 příspěvků
Nov 29, 2013 at 23:17 (Upravené Nov 29, 2013 at 23:21)
If you are here to help newbies, show a REAL ACCOUNT like a pro.


Show a winning real account, and i will apologize to your betters.

About your book, I won't even download it illegally.
Členem od Jun 28, 2011   465 příspěvků
Nov 30, 2013 at 05:05
'About your book, I won't even download it illegally.' ???

You do realize that the things that you say and how you say them tells what kind of person you are? Why would you show a preference for downloading it illegally? I would not do anything that I knew was illegal because that is who I am. However, you wouldn't have to get it illegally, I would give you a copy free just because it could help you. You are hurting young man, I am not talking about your trading capabilities, I'm talking about you personally. I wish I could help, I have some small idea of what you are going through and I feel bad for you. But it doesn't have to stay this way. Ask yourself why you are attacking like this? Can you identify where the anger is coming from? I am nobody to you but there is so much anger in your writing... remember anger and hatred leads to the dark side... (Master Yoda) But all joking aside, you can make the darkness go away, it isn't easy but you can do it.

I would give you a copy of my book if you wanted it but there is another one that will help you a lot more. The title is “The Science of Getting Rich” by Wallace Waddles. It was written in 1908 and is still being quoted today. It is free just do a web search. It's not about making money, it about having control in your life. Making things happen the way you want them to go for you. It's worth the effort because the things that you can learn will also make you more money than trading could ever do.

By the way, just for the record I didn't quit trading in 2007 – 2008, that's when I started. In 2009 I had to move off shore (was using IBFX) because of the FIFO regulations, but I never quit. I did look the word up once though.

have a good night and a better tomorrow.

Bob
where research touches lives.
forex_trader_136673
Členem od Jun 28, 2013   852 příspěvků
Nov 30, 2013 at 10:36
No I'm not anger. But I don't read books from people who don't have trading capabilities.

In trading there are two types of people. The firsf that trade, and the second that realized that can't trade but still stick to trading comunity by trying to sell products. Unfortunatetly you are the second one. That is why I don't like you. Be honest write a book 'how I failed on trading' or prove you win from market and sell products how to win us too. You can upload offshore accounts too.


Writing a book to teach martingale te newbies is just plain stupid. You don't have to teac them to double up their loosing possition. It comes with their nature, that is why they loose.
forex_trader_136673
Členem od Jun 28, 2013   852 příspěvků
Nov 30, 2013 at 17:18 (Upravené Nov 30, 2013 at 17:40)
Dear blog readers, traders and those who are learning to be. I apologize to you for being harsh on him, but he deserves it. Mr wise guy does not have the right to say to someone that his opinion stinks.

Learn before you earn, but this is the wrong place to do it. Anyone can post their opinion here but opinions are like rectums, everyone has one, it is just that some stink.

I just proved that with doubling the position every 80 pips, if the market moves 800 pips the trader would increase the position from 1,000$ to 1,023,000$. How many retail traders do you know that can have enough capital to maintain 1 M position? Mr. wise guy, who has no capital to trade on his own and is in desperate need for a few thousand, has an open position on his demo account -1,419.60 pips. He has been holding it for 8 and a half months (find it attached). Off course it's only a demo account that he chose to publish. He targets 60 pips and currently risk to reward is minus 1:23.66.

Apparently, 1,419.60 pips in losses is 18 times of 80 pips. I did chose on random the number 80, but in his case the loss is so big, it doesn't matter. I can do the math for you and feel free to do it yourself, but if everyone doubles the account every 80 pips. If the market moves 18 fold of that, the position would grow to 524,287,000. I never seen a retail trader that can maintain a loosing position of 524 millions.

Mr. Wise Guy, publishes demos, tries to sell books and EA-s, is desperate for a few thousand dollars of YOUR money, but when he is asked to show his real account, he is shy.

Would you know of Warren Buffett or George Soros if they played only on demo accounts?
Členem od Dec 15, 2010   795 příspěvků
Nov 30, 2013 at 17:48
I have a few martingales that are fun to play with. I redesigned them. But they can still blow the account. Email me to request one from my web site. FREE... no charge.
Garry
Professor53.com
Click on my Name to see My Live Charts and Bio.
forex_trader_136673
Členem od Jun 28, 2013   852 příspěvků
Nov 30, 2013 at 18:10 (Upravené Nov 30, 2013 at 18:11)
Thanks Professor for being honest about martingales. Sure they blow accounts. I'm no big fan of MT4 or automated EA-s in general, but if you can programm semi automated EA-s I have a few ideas, we will keep in touch.


Dear traders, if you are interested attached you will find real account statements mr. @ForexAssistant did send to me. Notice the end of 04/2008 is different from any other month. Mr. Wise Guy can edit PDF-s too.

I am wondering why he wouldn't uppload real account to myfxbook, and still can find a reason. Maybe he did not find a way to edit myfxbook too. Just a guess.
Členem od Jun 28, 2011   465 příspěvků
Nov 30, 2013 at 20:43
To anyone really interested in what is going on here, we have someone talking about martingale recover systems that doesn't care about what makes sense and is just trying to hurt someone.

Notice that the attachment that ardit posted shows a lot size of 0.1 lots. His tirade states that the size of the trade would grow to to a million dollars. With a trade size of .1 lots, every pip cost 1 dollar in draw down. The discrepancy between the -1154 in draw and the -1419 in pips is the conversion between the Australian dollar and the US dollar account. With the the 1154 draw down in pips any martingale would have to be hundreds of lots in size by now, not .1 lots. He posted just one trade from a grid system, not even a martingale. So what does the 1419 pips in draw down tell us? That the price is currently 1419 pips away from the price where the grid switches from buys to sells.

The highest that the price reached on the audnzd since the forex spot market first came into existence is 1.3794 and the lowest is 1.0628 which is a difference of 3166 pips. We only do buys on the bottom half of the grid and sells on the top so we are always trading toward the center. However, the sells cost us swap and the buys give us positive interest on the swap so we would like to have more buys than sells.

Therefore we set the crossover between buys and sells at 65% of the grid (from lowest to highest. There are 50 ranges to this grid, and you can have up to 25 open trades if the crossover was centered. 3166 X .65 is 2058 pips. When added to the lowest historical price you get 1.2685 as the cross over point. Now look again at the price where the trade opened. 1.2615 (the slight discrepancy comes from normalizing the range sizes to 60 pips because 3166 pips / 50 ranges is actually 63.3 pips per range. We just don't trade all the way to the historic limits.

This makes our crossover range the 32nd range from the low. At 50 pips per range and a cost of $1 per pip for a trade size of 0.1 lots we would have an expected profit of $60.00 per trade which means that we would also have a draw of $60. per range when the price goes the other way. With 32 open trades at the historical low we can add all 32 draw downs together to see where we are. The grid calculation formula is the number of ranges times that number plus one all divided by 2. Since our largest draw is 32 ranges we would multiply 32 by 33 then divide by 2. 528 effective ranges in draw. At $6.00 per range we would expect a draw of 528 X $60 or $31,680 Therefore we open with $50,000 so the draw down can always be calculated to be within the comfort zone of the trader by adjusting the trade size.

If you actually open the MyFxBook link for the RISE AUD/NZD you would see that there are currently 25 open trades with a total draw-down of $15, 250 but until the price reverses and begins closing those open trades the draw can grow to $32,000. What happens if the price goes beyond the historical low? We put on a hedge, well, the program does as the system is totally automated. You might also note that the balance is currently $54,239 which means that we are making money. You can remove all of the profits every month and the system will be just as safe as when you opened the account. Rise was designed to give a retiree a nice monthly income without a lot of risk and that is just what it does.

Unfortunately I don't have a true martingale system to compare with to show the difference as traditional martingale recovery systems that most most people have heard about is terrible for trading the forex market and I say so in the book. But there are other similar recover systems that do work well. Pegasus uses a Fibonacci pattern for recovery. Instead of doubling the size of the trade as a true martingale would, you add the two previous trade sizes together to determine the next trade size.

The Fib sizes would then be 1 , 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89 times the base size which could be .01 lots. All the way to the 10th iteration and we only reach a trade size of .89 lots. We will use a trade size of 0.01 lots to start with which means that ever pip in draw is 10 cents and we will use a range size of 10 pips to make the calculations easier to follow. Each effective range will give us a profit or loss of $1.00

We also start with a pretend loss of one range to make sure we get a profit each time the trade closes for a profit. Therefore the first trade has a dollar in draw bur the calculations are determined by the number of ranges lost we just made each range worth one dollar however it will work for any range size. One loss divided by the value of the first Fibonacci iteration which is also one, times the number of pips per range is 1 / 1 times 10 pips equal ten pips. So if we lose that trade we will have a loss of one dollar to add to the basket where a win would make us a profit because the first loss never happened, we just start with one range in the basket.

A loss would give us two ranges in the basket and the second fib value is 2 so our second profit target would also be 10 pips. However if we lost that trade then we would have 4 ranges in our basket, the first two plus the most recent loss. Four ranges in loss divided by the 3rd fib value of 3 is 1.34 multiplied by the range size of 10 pips means that our loss is ten pips but we hold open the trade until the take profit is 13.4 pips. The trade size is .03 lots which gives us a profit of 30 cents per pip times 13.4 pips makes a profit of $4.02 There was a loss of $1 for the first range and a loss of $2 on the second, the profit of $4.00 gives us a profit of $1. However, the price is now further away from center so whenever it moves back toward center in the future those trades will reopen and close for a profit of $1.00 also.

The tenth iteration gives a take profit of 1.6 times the range size and the 15th iteration is 1.62 the range size. In or example the take profit would never be more than 16.2 pips because our range size is 10 pips. 1.62 is known as PHI for those mathematicians out there.

Again you will see a net loss in pips while the balance is positive as the pips measure the distance from center to the current price, that's all. This is not true for traditional trading systems like Ardit uses, he is arrogant as all get out but he is using what traditional traders use. For those systems a negative pip count usually means a negative profit. So understand that when I say the pip count shows how far the price is away from center, that is only for systemic systems.

You can find the myfxbook link for Pegasus in a previous post.

You can also find the one for RISE because ardit did but when you do, open to the history tab and have a look at the win loss record. The aud/nzd is the smallest trading size but we usually use the aud/cad which has an average profit of just over 1% a month. The aud/nzd only makes about 8% a year, good for retirees but traders can do better.

Anyone can see that discussing these new concepts on a forum is next to impossible because to make sense of what we are talking about takes too many pages. This is the type of stuff in the book that ardit refuses to read, systems that you can work out with a calculator and know exactly what to expect from the programs. Systemic trading needs fresh young minds to develop even newer and better systems as time goes on. I am too old to lead this new group of traders/investors into the following years but there is a whole new world of trading on the forex market for you to consider. I am the father of systemic trading, and I am keeping my eyes open for the future of of this mathematically based system, which will be new traders.

And that ladies and gentlemen, is why I am here. Looking for the next generation that wants to learn what very few in the world really know and people like ardit never will.

Learn what else I have been learning about at the research website, forex-assistant.com Nothing to buy, leave your money alone, this is just for learning.

Bob
where research touches lives.
forex_trader_136673
Členem od Jun 28, 2013   852 příspěvků
Nov 30, 2013 at 20:51
Too much to read for someone who does tell others to learn. Can't provide a real account.

Can't stop from promoting his stupid EA-s that cost 495$. You are a SCAM, and a real ONE. Few in the World know? You are one?

Stop telling people about martingale cause you know nothing.

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/ForexAssistant/rise-lucror/422518

Rise on Luxor is -23%, of course you don't mention that. I was talking about that. Research website my rectum. What did you earn in real by your research. Scaming people?
forex_trader_136673
Členem od Jun 28, 2013   852 příspěvků
Nov 30, 2013 at 21:02 (Upravené Nov 30, 2013 at 21:09)
Your Rise on Luxor does not have to be martingale, if it was the account would have blown by now, but it still will be blown.


Wors trade -1,419.60 pips, total -18,715 pips (two whole pages). How about trading in the right direction, you are 1,419.60 pips away. Hope you are alive when it reached the B/E. This is trade and pray. Dear traders his EA-s cost 495$ (he is not cheap eh, he will rip you off).

Quote: 'You might also note that the balance is currently $54,239 which means that we are making money.' Scam others, equity is 39,020$, account is minus 11,000$. Maybe newbies don't know, the system is loosing money not making. EQUITY MATTERS not BALANCE.

And still is SHY TO UPLOAD A REAL ACCOUNT, of course he does not want to lose his own little money.

Hope you find your prey, but not here.

It is fun to expose a SCAMMER who play granddaddy role, just to rip you off.
forex_trader_136673
Členem od Jun 28, 2013   852 příspěvků
Nov 30, 2013 at 21:23
You are worth as much as much as those demo virtual currency you show. Real traders trade real money. They win or they loose, doesn't matter, they are real traders. You are none.

I don't like you because you like to steal from others. So what if I'm angry, people who steal should end up in prison. Cheating online is no different. You don't show real account, F-Off. Your system worth nothing as your copy-paste books. If your system does work, why don't you trade your own money?

Stop treating this post for marketing, stop wasting my time. Withdraw your virtual demo currency and pay your bills.


Have a nice day, good bye. Don't make me come back.

You have the right to write if you upload a real account. PDF EDITOR.

As I said: Real traders don't need advice FROM DEMO GUYS or CAR SALESMEN.
Členem od Jun 28, 2011   465 příspěvků
Nov 30, 2013 at 21:41
You poor kid. Honestly, I'm sorry for you. Please find someone to talk to. Your hate is burning you up.
 
I will not be answering anymore of this kids posts as it is feeding his illness and it is my goal to do good not harm. If anyone else has any questions that I can help you with, please feel free to ask or send me a private post.

We have introduced a new system of trading, different than technical or fundamental systems. Systemic trading is the future of investment trading and we are looking to advance the knowledge of this new third type of trading system specifically made for the forex market.

Bob

where research touches lives.
forex_trader_136673
Členem od Jun 28, 2013   852 příspěvků
Nov 30, 2013 at 21:48
You don't need to be sorry to me, I don't cheat people, you do. And you will be considering cheating until you upload a REAL ACCOUNT.

You talk to your self a good man. You are a SCAMMER ON GRANDDADS MASK.

Yet, you are so desperate, on every blog you cant stop promoting your stupid systems.


If you are so desperate for money, PM me and I will send you few thousand you so desperately need. I will consider it charity. Just don't rip off average Joe.


P.S. Does it hurt to call you DEMO GUY?
Členem od Nov 20, 2013   7 příspěvků
Dec 02, 2013 at 13:18
I think Martingales are exciting but dangerous creatures. They can build your account up faster than any other EA, and they can eventually destroy your account in one fell swoop. No-stops is a problem in itself. Most systems fail miserably without having well defined stops. The inseparable companion of no stops is overstaying the position. Within this time, the price sometimes runs very far away. Great thread, thank you.
I Think, Therefore I'm Guessing
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