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FXOpen - USD Diskuse
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ForexSeeker

Členem od Apr 20, 2010  727 zpráv(a,y) DoubleTrap (ForexSeeker) Apr 22 2010 at 00:18
Nice setting, Is this Bless 1 EA ?
Have you test out what is the minimum deposit if to ratio it down and what broker can support it ?
As logic, it can get MC as the gird is 30 pip, and probably need open 11 trade to make it have 300 pip range capture.
Well as all the same, the key for martingale is to have a high ROI per month so it can Hit & Run.

Information is Gold when come to organised. http://winterwongforex.com
bestforexea

Členem od Oct 29, 2009  75 zpráv(a,y) Casey Lim (bestforexea) Apr 22 2010 at 03:09
Nope... it is a modified version of Cyborg. But I don't think that guy is selling this EA anymore. And I just included Blessing 5.2 into the equation on one of the currency.

Yes... That was the idea. 30 pip grid and retracting 30 pips in order to be safe. I have tested all the currency pair and so far only AUDUSD and EURGBP does seem to have 30 pip retracement after a big dip and the biggest dip is so far only 250 pips over 10 years before retracting 30 pips.

I think with Martingale it's not about high ROI... I guess a steady ROI with hopes to manage any severe drawdown because the downside is the risk not the upside.

NEVER say DIE!!!
tbuitendyk

Členem od Dec 31, 2009  141 zpráv(a,y) T. Buitendyk (tbuitendyk) Apr 22 2010 at 03:48 (editováno Apr 22 2010 at 03:54 )
Sorry bud... I think martingale's are ugly.

'Ugly Megan'? grin

(No offense intended... perhaps in the right hands they might work. Trouble is it seems that 'the right hands' are few and far between...)

Gear on the left...
ForexSeeker

Členem od Apr 20, 2010  727 zpráv(a,y) DoubleTrap (ForexSeeker) Apr 22 2010 at 10:32
I save you the trouble testing. Here the result of 50k playing 12 pairs.

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/phanom/rambo3/23061

Very steady ROI and already gain 100% can Harvest the capaital.

But the problem is do we have 50k USD ?? So have you ever try to ratio it down see weather it work with 5k ?


Information is Gold when come to organised. http://winterwongforex.com
ForexSeeker

Členem od Apr 20, 2010  727 zpráv(a,y) DoubleTrap (ForexSeeker) Apr 22 2010 at 10:35

tbuitendyk posted:
    Sorry bud... I think martingale's are ugly.

'Ugly Megan'? grin

(No offense intended... perhaps in the right hands they might work. Trouble is it seems that 'the right hands' are few and far between...)


I think martingale is Expensive, you need to be rich so only can be richer. So why you think martingale not working ? Any bad experience martingale EA that blow up your account b4 ? Let's share your precious thinking.

Information is Gold when come to organised. http://winterwongforex.com
stevetrade

Členem od Oct 28, 2009  1224 zpráv(a,y) Steve B (stevetrade) Apr 22 2010 at 10:36
Just open up an account that allows 0.01 lot and use $5000.

11:15, restate my assumptions: 1. Mathematics is the language of nature. 2. Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. 3. If you graph these numbers, patterns emerge. Therefore: There are patterns everywhere in nature.
tbuitendyk

Členem od Dec 31, 2009  141 zpráv(a,y) T. Buitendyk (tbuitendyk) Apr 22 2010 at 17:53

ForexSeeker posted:
    
tbuitendyk posted:
    Sorry bud... I think martingale's are ugly.

'Ugly Megan'? grin

(No offense intended... perhaps in the right hands they might work. Trouble is it seems that 'the right hands' are few and far between...)


I think martingale is Expensive, you need to be rich so only can be richer. So why you think martingale not working ? Any bad experience martingale EA that blow up your account b4 ? Let's share your precious thinking.


No, I've never personally gotten toasted by a martingale, but I've seen plenty of examples where other people have.

I don't know how 'precious' my thinking is, but from what I've read about martingales and probability analysis, they seem to be mathematically guaranteed to fail unless you have infinite finances. For example, using a simple coin toss with 50-50 odds, it's surprising how probable a string of bad bets actually is that would be sufficient to wipe-out the account of anyone with less then VERY deep pockets.

Quoting from Wikipedia:

'As an example, consider a bettor with an available fortune, or credit, of 243 (approximately 9 trillion) units, roughly the size of the current US national debt in dollars. With this very large fortune, the player can afford to lose on the first 42 tosses, but a loss on the 43rd cannot be covered. The probability of losing on the first 42 tosses is q^42, which will be a very small number unless tails are nearly certain on each toss. In the fair case where q = 1 / 2, we could expect to wait something on the order of 242 tosses before seeing 42 consecutive tails; tossing coins at the rate of one toss per second, this would require approximately 279,000 years.

This version of the game is likely to be unattractive to both players. The player with the fortune can expect to see a head and gain one unit on average every two tosses, or two seconds, corresponding to an annual income of about 31.6 million units until disaster (42 tails) occurs. This is only a 0.0036 percent return on the fortune at risk. The other player can look forward to steady losses of 31.6 million units per year until hitting an incredibly large jackpot, probably in something like 279,000 years, a period far longer than any currency has yet existed. If q > 1 / 2, this version of the game is also unfavorable to the first player in the sense that it would have negative expected winnings.

The impossibility of winning over the long run, given a limit of the size of bets or a limit in the size of one's bankroll or line of credit, is proven by the optional stopping theorem.'


Gear on the left...
stevetrade

Členem od Oct 28, 2009  1224 zpráv(a,y) Steve B (stevetrade) Apr 22 2010 at 17:59
In coin tossing nobody decides that it's been heads for far too long and starts throwing tails into the equation.

i.e. most currencies will eventually end up over bought or over sold and retrace at some stage. The trick is to ensure you have enough equity to cover what you think might be the worse case scenario based on historical analysis. Something, you again can't do with coin tossing.

11:15, restate my assumptions: 1. Mathematics is the language of nature. 2. Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. 3. If you graph these numbers, patterns emerge. Therefore: There are patterns everywhere in nature.
tbuitendyk

Členem od Dec 31, 2009  141 zpráv(a,y) T. Buitendyk (tbuitendyk) Apr 23 2010 at 00:41

stevetrade posted:
    In coin tossing nobody decides that it's been heads for far too long and starts throwing tails into the equation.

i.e. most currencies will eventually end up over bought or over sold and retrace at some stage. The trick is to ensure you have enough equity to cover what you think might be the worse case scenario based on historical analysis. Something, you again can't do with coin tossing.


Good point, but better than even odds systems have the same flaw. Yes, you can go longer than the even odds coin toss example, but ultimately it's the exact same problem just delayed a little.
 

Gear on the left...
cateful

Členem od Dec 19, 2009  87 zpráv(a,y) Fill or Kill (cateful) Apr 23 2010 at 03:01
I thought I'd give my 2 cents.

Basically,
Unexpected events happen, all the time.

What is the largest dip before a 30 pips retracement in EURCHF(a far less volatile cross than our dear euro sterling) prior to March 2009? Now if you based your analysis on that, you would be toasted in March 2009 during the CB intervention. You will see devaluation, intervention, war amongst other things. They WILL throw you and your martingale into the toilet and flush you down. You'll never see daylight again. That was how LTCM went down, and they thought there was 1 in a billion chance they could go down.

BTW Nick Leeson, he used martingale. And he also thought the NIKKEI wouldn't move much overnight, which sounded like a rare event to most people, until the next day when an earthquake struck Japan.

First and foremost, always, always protect your ass.

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