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"Just Oil"
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walker36

Mitglied seit May 13, 2011  1341 Beiträge Steve Walker (walker36) Feb 07 2012 at 17:40
good luck with Livewink

Trade The Trend! Defend To Price!
Professor53

Mitglied seit Dec 15, 2010  728 Beiträge Professor 53 Author of Quail Notes on Amazon EBooks. (Professor53) Feb 07 2012 at 18:53
I think it would be safe to buy oil and hold for a month or longer... find a dip and buy. No EA needed

Click on my Name to see My Live Charts and Bio.
mattdillonfx

Mitglied seit Feb 05, 2012  2 Beiträge mattdillonfx Feb 07 2012 at 22:04



Chikot

Mitglied seit Jan 14, 2010  2196 Beiträge Chikot Feb 07 2012 at 22:12


I would say good luck with live again... I just made a break of a week and some days.


   walker36 posted:
   good luck with Livewink

Chikot

Mitglied seit Jan 14, 2010  2196 Beiträge Chikot Feb 07 2012 at 22:14
I am not long term trader. I trade only intra day moves... But I think to buy someone should wait for some dip.

walker36

Mitglied seit May 13, 2011  1341 Beiträge Steve Walker (walker36) Feb 07 2012 at 23:21
again ( I assume followers knows the story )

   Chikot posted:
   

I would say good luck with live again... I just made a break of a week and some days.


   walker36 posted:
   good luck with Livewink


Trade The Trend! Defend To Price!
Chikot

Mitglied seit Jan 14, 2010  2196 Beiträge Chikot Feb 08 2012 at 01:04 (bearbeitet Feb 08 2012 at 01:05 )
Well, I have been trading all kinds of things since the mid of December. This is when I started turning things around.
I came to conclusion that main reason of my losses was too aggressive break out oriented style. i took other kinds of trades but tended to have pretty big stops on break out trades. i would not mention that break out probability is always lower than probability of failure. I am aggressive trader by nature and rarely hesitate to pull the trigger.
When I traded full time it was forgiving to me cause I could wait for better things but with current schedule I got murdered.
so, I came to conclusion that I must stop trading break outs when they are happening cause risk is pretty high, probability is not very good and generally, failures tend to have better R;R and trade goes into profit faster. I can also risk far less pips.
so, this is what i am looking for, various failures or if break out, i am looking to enter from another side. It happens often. I started thinking that only suckers and amateurs take break out when everyone can see them. Pros are already in those trades from another side.
I risk far less pips now which let me have better r:r ratio. as I mentioned before I am looking at maximum 1:2 R:R but will take anything starting with 1:1.25.
Tonight I came to PC and saw price moving above $97.00. previous high was 97.42. Price stalled 13 pips below and started coming down. I got it and shorted at 97.22. Hesitated a little was going to sell at 97.24. stop was 16 pips and target 32 pips. Took 26 pips. It went much further making total 1:5 R:R.

11354314 2012.02.07 09:48 sell 0.01 oil 97.22 97.22 96.88 2012.02.07 10:16 96.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.60

In any case, I see it now how math works. i almost always wait for retracement/ pull back now as even few pips can make a difference in R;R department. had I taken as I wanted trade from 97.24 and I would have stop of 14 pips and with closure at the same price I would have had 1:2 R:R. instead I got something 1:1.625.
My rule is simple. If I win first trade the day is done and I am off till next day. If I lose, I keep watching for another opportunity until I am about to go to work and if nothing, it is a down day. Trading for now is from 2:30 a.m. EST till 5:30 a.m. EST.

Chikot

Mitglied seit Jan 14, 2010  2196 Beiträge Chikot Feb 08 2012 at 08:09
went long pretty good entry. break out before break out, risk was 20 pips hence I am looking for 25-40 pips. stop to BE so, no risk anymore. nearest resistance 99.47-99.60 but it might be moving towards 100.00 most probably. unless it falls back. it is btw the break and bounce form higher time frame trend line which has held for sometime.

http://www.myfxbook.com/files/Chikot/oil_Fs.bmp
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Chikot

Mitglied seit Jan 14, 2010  2196 Beiträge Chikot Feb 08 2012 at 08:49
out for +31 pips. took long as I expected stronger move. decided to close and not wait for 40 pips as it is so slow I even started thinking it is going to break back under broken resistance, but it held.

Chikot

Mitglied seit Jan 14, 2010  2196 Beiträge Chikot Feb 08 2012 at 09:03

http://www.myfxbook.com/files/Chikot/oil_yC.bmp


I think it is might be picking orders from 99.41 level but still. with oil gotta be careful so I am happy top get out with 31 pips. it might drop like a stone to get to some lower level or some sell off. it has tested 99.47 twice to the pip hence level is important. I had it on my chart since yesterday. Might break it but my day is done. now it is breaking under 99.40. if it falls under 99.27-99.20 it might go some way down. No one knows how far. winner is bigger than risk so far so good.
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