US Elections

xgavinc posted:

DrVodka posted:
if Trumps wins USD will drop for like 10 % , thats what a hear

And HRC a drop of 20%?

Let's be honest, anyone believing anything from HRC needs a reality check. Disregarding votes, ask who you would trust more to invest your money for you. I would not trust HRC with a dime of my money, but I would trust DT with no more than a Dollar.

I'm retracting my last statement about DT... I would invest more than a dollar with him. The facts from people with nothing to gain is a priority in my books. I'm going to take a stab at it, but if DT wins, I believe sentiment will be bullish on the dollar. (Don't take my word for it though, make your own conclusions).

Of course, presidential races don't occur in a vacuum, and statistics based on previous elections in no way guarantee what will happen in 2016. On average, the first year of a new presidential term sees the markets rise by 6%. That's below the 7.5% average for all years (going back to 1928), but still a positive signal.

If your strategy has a backup plan, I don’t see how the elections can affect your trading results.

Hope that can help new or unsecure traders :) Cheers!

TiffanyK posted:
Of course, presidential races don't occur in a vacuum, and statistics based on previous elections in no way guarantee what will happen in 2016. On average, the first year of a new presidential term sees the markets rise by 6%. That's below the 7.5% average for all years (going back to 1928), but still a positive signal.

If your strategy has a backup plan, I don’t see how the elections can affect your trading results.

Hope that can help new or unsecure traders :) Cheers!

I also believe this to be the case, first year hype on promises from new president strengthens the currency and the following 3 years depend on delivery of those promises. I also believe, It's ingrained in successful businessmen to beat the bush and deliver and for politicians to beat around the bush and fall short on delivery (this is a proven fact). So regardless of any accusations (a lot of which is / was childish bickering), I think overall Trump would have a greater positive impact on the market based on delivery alone, and Hillary will stifle any progress by conforming to political agenda's.

xgavinc posted:

TiffanyK posted:
Of course, presidential races don't occur in a vacuum, and statistics based on previous elections in no way guarantee what will happen in 2016. On average, the first year of a new presidential term sees the markets rise by 6%. That's below the 7.5% average for all years (going back to 1928), but still a positive signal.

If your strategy has a backup plan, I don’t see how the elections can affect your trading results.

Hope that can help new or unsecure traders :) Cheers!

I also believe this to be the case, first year hype on promises from new president strengthens the currency and the following 3 years depend on delivery of those promises. I also believe, It's ingrained in successful businessmen to beat the bush and deliver and for politicians to beat around the bush and fall short on delivery (this is a proven fact). So regardless of any accusations (a lot of which is / was childish bickering), I think overall Trump would have a greater positive impact on the market based on delivery alone, and Hillary will stifle any progress by conforming to political agenda's.

If I understood correctly, you expect the dollar to strengthen its positions against other major currencies if Trump wins and vice versa if Hilary wins?

Wow... Trump as US President.... Good luck America, you gonna need it with that clown as president.... just my personal opinion....

CliveCampbell posted:

xgavinc posted:

TiffanyK posted:
Of course, presidential races don't occur in a vacuum, and statistics based on previous elections in no way guarantee what will happen in 2016. On average, the first year of a new presidential term sees the markets rise by 6%. That's below the 7.5% average for all years (going back to 1928), but still a positive signal.

If your strategy has a backup plan, I don’t see how the elections can affect your trading results.

Hope that can help new or unsecure traders :) Cheers!

I also believe this to be the case, first year hype on promises from new president strengthens the currency and the following 3 years depend on delivery of those promises. I also believe, It's ingrained in successful businessmen to beat the bush and deliver and for politicians to beat around the bush and fall short on delivery (this is a proven fact). So regardless of any accusations (a lot of which is / was childish bickering), I think overall Trump would have a greater positive impact on the market based on delivery alone, and Hillary will stifle any progress by conforming to political agenda's.

If I understood correctly, you expect the dollar to strengthen its positions against other major currencies if Trump wins and vice versa if Hilary wins?

My medium to long term view yes, I'm looking at least for March 2017, short term negative view on Trump win due to sentiment but as the cog starts to turn on policy implementation I see a rise. Erratic conditions immediate term.

CliveCampbell posted:

xgavinc posted:

TiffanyK posted:
Of course, presidential races don't occur in a vacuum, and statistics based on previous elections in no way guarantee what will happen in 2016. On average, the first year of a new presidential term sees the markets rise by 6%. That's below the 7.5% average for all years (going back to 1928), but still a positive signal.

If your strategy has a backup plan, I don’t see how the elections can affect your trading results.

Hope that can help new or unsecure traders :) Cheers!

I also believe this to be the case, first year hype on promises from new president strengthens the currency and the following 3 years depend on delivery of those promises. I also believe, It's ingrained in successful businessmen to beat the bush and deliver and for politicians to beat around the bush and fall short on delivery (this is a proven fact). So regardless of any accusations (a lot of which is / was childish bickering), I think overall Trump would have a greater positive impact on the market based on delivery alone, and Hillary will stifle any progress by conforming to political agenda's.

If I understood correctly, you expect the dollar to strengthen its positions against other major currencies if Trump wins and vice versa if Hilary wins?

Hi Clive, I was talking in general (not saying “ if Trump wins…”, “If Hilary wins … “ ). This I found when I was reading about the US Elections effect on the currencies. It doesn’t matter who exactly will win – this was just from the statistics.

P.S. At this moment Trump is leading, not what everyone was expecting 😄

xgavinc posted:

CliveCampbell posted:

xgavinc posted:

TiffanyK posted:
Of course, presidential races don't occur in a vacuum, and statistics based on previous elections in no way guarantee what will happen in 2016. On average, the first year of a new presidential term sees the markets rise by 6%. That's below the 7.5% average for all years (going back to 1928), but still a positive signal.

If your strategy has a backup plan, I don’t see how the elections can affect your trading results.

Hope that can help new or unsecure traders :) Cheers!

I also believe this to be the case, first year hype on promises from new president strengthens the currency and the following 3 years depend on delivery of those promises. I also believe, It's ingrained in successful businessmen to beat the bush and deliver and for politicians to beat around the bush and fall short on delivery (this is a proven fact). So regardless of any accusations (a lot of which is / was childish bickering), I think overall Trump would have a greater positive impact on the market based on delivery alone, and Hillary will stifle any progress by conforming to political agenda's.

If I understood correctly, you expect the dollar to strengthen its positions against other major currencies if Trump wins and vice versa if Hilary wins?

My medium to long term view yes, I'm looking at least for March 2017, short term negative view on Trump win due to sentiment but as the cog starts to turn on policy implementation I see a rise. Erratic conditions immediate term.

Yes, and you are right - this is what is happening now as Trump is the winner. Erratic conditions. I got surprised personally of the result.

To add a quick point - it's also about the supply and demand for the dollar. Will there be an increase in inflation now with Trump on the lead? How the falling oil prices will affect the dollar strength? These are some of the questions I am asking myself to determine the next opportunity 😄

RichardBills posted:
To add a quick point - it's also about the supply and demand for the dollar. Will there be an increase in inflation now with Trump on the lead? How the falling oil prices will affect the dollar strength? These are some of the questions I am asking myself to determine the next opportunity 😄

Other than US interest rate I don't think there is anything else for us this year. Trump will start Jan 20th (sworn in), and will most likely only get the ball rolling from March. Inflation is lagging, so a Trump impact won't be seen till much later, if it is a concern for you, keep focus on Obama for next inflation figures, not Trump.

You can’t really lean on just things you hear. There is no way that USD will drop with 10% for example just because DT will be the new president of USA. Of course there will be movement in the market but I guess this is normal after elections.
I am also surprised by the immediate erratic conditions to be honest, but this is good news for traders of the USD.

Hooray for volatility! The US Elections is a Non-Event: the choice of president won't have a sustained long-lasting effect on forex. It is the eventual policies that come out that will have the effects.

In other words, only trader sentiment has been affected temporarily. Fundamentals haven't yet changed. Technicals have barely been affected - all pairs are returning to pre-Election levels.

A whole lotta hoo-ha over nada. But thanks for the volatility! 😉

Could well be bullish for the USD, he spoke of higher interest rates and cutting regulation, both good for stocks and USD.

Good luck America.

make america great again..yesss😉😉😉

fx4btc posted:

Magiic posted:
Could well be bullish for the USD, he spoke of higher interest rates and cutting regulation, both good for stocks and USD.

Good luck America.

We will need it. America hasn't been globally competitive for the last decade.

Yes! I'm not of the belief that lower tax and less regulation is what you need.

It will definitely give your large companies a boost in earning and the like, but for over-all America, it will expand the issues.

If only America could take a leaf out of the way some of the top European countries run things.

Magiic posted:

fx4btc posted:

Magiic posted:
Could well be bullish for the USD, he spoke of higher interest rates and cutting regulation, both good for stocks and USD.

Good luck America.

We will need it. America hasn't been globally competitive for the last decade.

Yes! I'm not of the belief that lower tax and less regulation is what you need.

It will definitely give your large companies a boost in earning and the like, but for over-all America, it will expand the issues.

If only America could take a leaf out of the way some of the top European countries run things.

Lower Tax and less regulation is a growth driver which would stimulate the economy (create more jobs and more capex expenditure for growth). It won't necessarily drive earnings (eg, less tax won't mean you have a higher salary (income), it means you have more of it available to you), and most companies will use that extra net profit on capital expenditure which in turn creates jobs.

'expand the issues' is vague, could you elaborate on what issues would be expanded on?

xgavinc posted:

Magiic posted:

fx4btc posted:

Magiic posted:
Could well be bullish for the USD, he spoke of higher interest rates and cutting regulation, both good for stocks and USD.

Good luck America.

We will need it. America hasn't been globally competitive for the last decade.

Yes! I'm not of the belief that lower tax and less regulation is what you need.

It will definitely give your large companies a boost in earning and the like, but for over-all America, it will expand the issues.

If only America could take a leaf out of the way some of the top European countries run things.

Lower Tax and less regulation is a growth driver which would stimulate the economy (create more jobs and more capex expenditure for growth). It won't necessarily drive earnings (eg, less tax won't mean you have a higher salary (income), it means you have more of it available to you), and most companies will use that extra net profit on capital expenditure which in turn creates jobs.

'expand the issues' is vague, could you elaborate on what issues would be expanded on?

In theory that's correct, but as far as I'm aware. the less regulation there is, the more the company (top few % of the company) make. Which does not benefit the average American. I'm not sure which regulations should be cut to make business better? Most of it that I see is there for a reason, not to exploit things. Run down economics ( cutting tax for the wealthiest ) hoping they will in turn hire more and pass down the $ they save is completely flawed.

By earnings I meant just the $ the CEO's make.

People are ***ts, why expect them not to be.?

Trump specifically said he would cut regulations that large companies can afford to work with / around, but which squeeze out new and small companies that cannot afford such measures. Many regulations worldwide are there to make the wealthy richer and drive out small competition.

A good example in my country is the most recent regulation that was changed, which was a limit on the minimum capital you could lend before having to register as a financial services provider. This was capped at ZAR 500k, so for example, if you are an individual that lends money on P2P loans, you can lend up to ZAR 500k capital before having to register. This has dropped to ZAR 0 (zero)... to register costs money, there is an initial registration fee and an annual cost (in the thousands). This regulation is blatantly changed to squeeze out lenders with a low capital (the little guys and gals), there is no other reason for it.

Trump will look at those types of limiting regulations and change them.

xgavinc posted:
Trump specifically said he would cut regulations that large companies can afford to work with / around, but which squeeze out new and small companies that cannot afford such measures. Many regulations worldwide are there to make the wealthy richer and drive out small competition.

A good example in my country is the most recent regulation that was changed, which was a limit on the minimum capital you could lend before having to register as a financial services provider. This was capped at ZAR 500k, so for example, if you are an individual that lends money on P2P loans, you can lend up to ZAR 500k capital before having to register. This has dropped to ZAR 0 (zero)... to register costs money, there is an initial registration fee and an annual cost (in the thousands). This regulation is blatantly changed to squeeze out lenders with a low capital (the little guys and gals), there is no other reason for it.

Trump will look at those types of limiting regulations and change them.

If you think D.Trump is for the smaller businesses over large, we shall see.

Everything I've seen has him aligned with big business.