TP = SL (by Columbus) Einfache Statistik
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TP = SL Diskussion
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Mprinze

Mitglied seit Oct 06, 2010  5 Beiträge Mprinze Nov 11 2010 at 22:28
Hello would you mind give a hint of what type of analysis your using? smiley

Forwarder

Mitglied seit Oct 25, 2010  3 Beiträge Forwarder Nov 12 2010 at 11:22
Hello,
does anybody try to understand a logic of this system? Let's try together.
I have try and think that Franz uses a trailing stop, which moves in minus... for example... He has a position with TP 10 and SL 10.. If price goes to +1, sl moves to -9, if goes to +2 sl moves to -8 etc... but we should understand does his EA use SL 10 or less... step of Trailing (because I have never seen a trade in history with -10 pesult).
The biggest lost, which I have found in recent history is -7. So.. If trailingstop is 7 (for example) and stop loss is 7 and step is 1 we will have:
-7 if price goes to negative
-6 if price goes to 1 pip from open price
-5 if price goes to 2 pip from open price... etc.
Some trades will be closed in minus by Trailing stop, some in plus by Trailing stop, some hits TP +10.
It's just my suppose... what do you think? let's discuss..
PS I have an EA, which moves SL im minus


Mprinze

Mitglied seit Oct 06, 2010  5 Beiträge Mprinze Nov 12 2010 at 18:27
Forwarder,

That idea doesn't seem to bad it requires some testing also I see plenty of by short trades and long trading in row, maybe some kind of moving average is in use, The hit rate is 47% meaning the indicator in use hasn't got a large statical advantage

My shot as follows buy every bar open (5,15,or 30 TF) above X period average use TP=10 and SL =10 Trail stop until either profit is hit or stop loss.

Peter

kami190

Mitglied seit Jul 10, 2010  129 Beiträge kami190 Nov 12 2010 at 23:41
hello
I send you email , and pm , please answer me ?
why dont answer yet ?

fpuschmann

Mitglied seit Oct 09, 2010  56 Beiträge Falk (fpuschmann) Nov 15 2010 at 12:04 (bearbeitet Nov 15 2010 at 12:07 )
Mprinze posted:
    Forwarder,

That idea doesn't seem to bad it requires some testing also I see plenty of by short trades and long trading in row, maybe some kind of moving average is in use, The hit rate is 47% meaning the indicator in use hasn't got a large statical advantage

My shot as follows buy every bar open (5,15,or 30 TF) above X period average use TP=10 and SL =10 Trail stop until either profit is hit or stop loss.

Peter


I don't think so, the statistical advantage of the used indicator must be indeed very high if the system reaches a hit rate of 47% using tp=10 and trailing sl=7+spread. Writing an ea using the asumed tp and sl values is quite simple, but the key to success are the used indicators/filters.

Mprinze

Mitglied seit Oct 06, 2010  5 Beiträge Mprinze Nov 15 2010 at 13:09
Hello, The point I was trying to make is that the advantage is not that great considering it only has a 3% advantage when compared to tossing a coin at 50% The first thing I would do is to place the stop and the profit target at 10 pips . If we buy every bar the hit rate should be around 50%. We can then add a filter to see if we can improve the performance.

Currently I have a bar pattern that can average around 60% strike. We can add this as a filter also

Peter

Columbus

Mitglied seit Oct 11, 2010  6 Beiträge Franz (Columbus) Nov 15 2010 at 13:22
Hi guys, sorry I couldn't answer all the posts, but I am trying to improve this system and also have my own plans. I will not sell the system, but I might do Money Management if somebody is interested. Write to ausfranzlbichler@gmail.com and I will send you some more info.
Cheers.

fpuschmann

Mitglied seit Oct 09, 2010  56 Beiträge Falk (fpuschmann) Nov 15 2010 at 13:26 (bearbeitet Nov 15 2010 at 13:37 )
Mprinze posted:
    Hello, The point I was trying to make is that the advantage is not that great considering it only has a 3% advantage when compared to tossing a coin at 50% The first thing I would do is to place the stop and the profit target at 10 pips . If we buy every bar the hit rate should be around 50%. We can then add a filter to see if we can improve the performance.

Currently I have a bar pattern that can average around 60% strike. We can add this as a filter also

Peter


I think the comparision to tossing a coin is bad, if you open order in random direction you still have to mess around with the spread. So the probability of closing the random order with tp ist about 30% depending on spread. Vica versa probability to hit sl ist 70%.

umairejaz

Mitglied seit Oct 30, 2010  17 Beiträge umairejaz Nov 15 2010 at 14:19

Columbus posted:
    Hi guys, sorry I couldn't answer all the posts, but I am trying to improve this system and also have my own plans. I will not sell the system, but I might do Money Management if somebody is interested. Write to ausfranzlbichler@gmail.com and I will send you some more info.
Cheers.

Franz I want to have information regarding money management. I sent you an email , Please give me information at umair.ejaz@hotmail.com , I am looking for your response smiley

Mprinze

Mitglied seit Oct 06, 2010  5 Beiträge Mprinze Nov 17 2010 at 22:09

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Falk Posted
I think the comparision to tossing a coin is bad, if you open order in random direction you still have to mess around with the spread. So the probability of closing the random order with tp ist about 30% depending on spread. Vica versa probability to hit sl ist 70%.
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Yes I agree with spread but if you only buy you can average around 53% which is an advantage in itself. The point I'm trying to make is that having 47% strike rate with money management is all that is required. There we only have to work on our Risk to reward. I'm sure Franz system is not complicated.

Peter

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