fxanalytics's Beiträge

Portfolio Companion Thread in Erfahrene Trader Sep 29, 2009 at 17:18

people who can argue the last statement are those who come to trading with significant portfolio's... Typically it's money made elsewhere. On average, people are not going turn small portfolio's into large ones in just a few years, forget about just a few months.If you want to trade for a living you need a LOT of cash up front. Not every model is going to make money every year... You need to either be working and making income elsewhere or you need to have enough cash to survive the down times. It's very difficult. The great thing about trading is, anyone can choose the pat...

Portfolio Companion Thread in Erfahrene Trader Sep 28, 2009 at 15:54

I can't give you an honest clear example without giving up a lot of my hard earned knowledge! So I won't bore you with a dance around the bush. Sorry...Please keep in mind it's purely speculation that the model worked for five years; I had to back test up to the old results. Who knows what would have happened in real time... If you find you have to tweak your system after one or two years, you may have over-optimized. That's not a bad thing if you're just trading for your self. If you're trading for others you have a certain responsibility and need to be consistent....

Portfolio Companion Thread in Erfahrene Trader Sep 26, 2009 at 20:42

Well that's the question... If I have any hopes of trading professionally and raising the kind of money it takes to really make it worth while, a methodology has to survive for five years or more. We both know that is a lot easier said than done. When the model was initially developed I was well aware of it's limitations and internal biases so I had addressed those through different filtering processes. It "APPEARS" it held up over time, at least in back-testing from the point we were forced to halt trading. That's worth about a four pack of Charmin TP. The real test...

Tester in Handelssysteme Sep 25, 2009 at 17:31

He can't talk right now... he's instructing his broker to buy the Bahamas <img src='http://static.myfxbook.com/images/smiley-lol.png' alt='😁'/>

Your opinion needed - regarding my choice of indicators in Neue Trader Sep 25, 2009 at 17:28

Shankar,No one can really answer that question for you. There are so many variables here we would have to write a book. First and foremost is the volatility you will encounter taking signals from a daily data-point. It means you will typically be in a trade for weeks while things develop. This can lead to very deep draw-downs. Proper account funding use of leverage are paramount here.Your best bet here is to sit down and learn first and foremost how to properly test a system, then apply your questions to the test method and see what returns are generated. You will need significant data to...

Portfolio Companion Thread in Erfahrene Trader Sep 25, 2009 at 17:17

Thanks for the input...To answer the other question, I'm not a programmer. More of a power user LOL. I tested a lot of different platforms including neural net and finally settled on the one that I felt gave me the least amount of bias. Most people on our level don't really consider the "quirks" that are inherent to that type of computing and forecasting; all these applications have their own internal biases that can skew your forcast and trade entry. This is where all the research comes in; it takes a lot of time and a lot of testing to identify those anomalies. When it ...

Portfolio Companion Thread in Erfahrene Trader Sep 25, 2009 at 16:21

The only instruction I can find on the site are for adding an Oanda or an MT4 account. How do we add an FXCM Demo account? I've set one up, just can't figure or find out how to link it...

Tester in Handelssysteme Sep 25, 2009 at 15:48

I've been reviewing some of these "incredible" systems... they seem to come out of know where... Do people fire up a dozen or so models and then make the profitable one "public". It's not possible that there are only "winning" models in this data-base and the returns that are being presented are neither probable or reasonable. I think it sends the wrong message...

Portfolio Companion Thread in Erfahrene Trader Sep 25, 2009 at 13:52

On a different note, I'm going to use this first model simply as a test of the application here. My trade model can be quite slow to signal, on average it kicks out about a trade a week but I've had periods where it has left me on my thumbs for three or four weeks. I want to see how the analytics work etc so I'm just going to throw some technical trades in there across the few weeks and see how the application works and what kind of information it gives me.

Portfolio Companion Thread in Erfahrene Trader Sep 25, 2009 at 13:49

It's all about the money... After Refco there was very little left. I had spent three years supporting myself, a lot of capital on R&D and on the business itself to turn the model into something that would handle the kind of funding it takes to make it worth while. I also found myself without a way to generate livable income after the collapse. I don't live in one of the financial hubs so running out and landing a Series 3 job wasn't a possibility. Just starting the trading over wasn't an option and to be honest the emotional impact of it took some time to get over as wel...

Portfolio Companion Thread in Erfahrene Trader Sep 24, 2009 at 16:49

I was lucky enough to get my start in finance very young and I worked with a number of successful traders early on. I was also exposed to a lot (A LOT) of unsuccessful traders. It was harder to define in the 80's but you could see trade activity and exposure (leverage and liquidity) seemed to be linked; that was really driven home when LTCM went under. Unfortunately, even in the professional world, the guys who make 100% for a year or two get all the attention, and when they blow up, there is always some other new exciting approach or person who quickly takes their place. People don'...

Portfolio Companion Thread in Erfahrene Trader Sep 24, 2009 at 15:37

My advice to traders has always been, if you're good at trading, then managing funds. That's how you make money as a trader. Trying to generate unrealistic returns to satisfy your income goals doesn't make sense and it doesn't work. The numbers don't lie; people who use large risk profiles simply don't survive over the long term. Unfortunately, digging this information up isn't always easy in the retail market; it's not in the sectors best "business" interest to promote the truth. How many brokers do you see touting: "TRADE WITH US FOR A 95% ...

Portfolio Companion Thread in Erfahrene Trader Sep 24, 2009 at 15:28

Well as we've seen again recently there are other risks in the market place. Banks can fail, single asset classes can cripple entire economies. The real attraction for FX and Futures is the diversification it can add to a portfolio; even if you are only generating returns in line with the S&P 500, the lower correlation to those returns helps smooth volatility in the larger holdings. Risk:Reward is often a larger component than the single investment we are looking at; we have to understand how the risk profile in this area affects us in others.

Portfolio Companion Thread in Erfahrene Trader Sep 23, 2009 at 23:33

To me returns are secondary to survival; if you build a trade model that will survive five to ten years - through all the volatility and unknowns, you'll see years where you loose money, some where you make a couple of percent and some where you make double digits. The key for me as a trader isn't to make "x" a year, it's to be able to trade year in and year out.I realize that's counterintuitive for most traders who set return goals (sometimes monthly) so they can accomplish specific things; it's just my experience that doesn't work over the long term.

Portfolio Companion Thread in Erfahrene Trader Sep 23, 2009 at 19:56

It's probably worth noting here that I actually trade with less than 10:1 leverage; that was the lowest the I could choose. I've never seen much evidence that a trader can survive using levels that high for any significant length of time. I try to keep it around 2:1.

Portfolio Companion Thread in Erfahrene Trader Sep 23, 2009 at 17:31

Well to be honest when I started this, I didn't even realize each system had a discussion thread attached to it LOL! Like I said some "learning" to do. When the mood hits me I tend to write a lot so I'll leave this active for more generalized research that may or may-not find its way into the actual trade model.

Portfolio Companion Thread in Erfahrene Trader Sep 23, 2009 at 17:13

Thought I'd add a companion thread to the model testing. I'll be resurrecting an old model that I used to trade and recently did some new research on. Initially all the trading will be in demo accounts just to get the feel of it again. As I have time I'll add some notes here and there about the research etc.I'm still new to this platform so there will be a little learning curve here as well; making sure the platform can see the account etc. The model portfolio's will be listed as "FXAN x-xx" with the "x's" equaling dates; i.e. the first portfolio ...

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