Three scenarios; up, down, and SIDEWAYS, I suppose (it's a belief). zzzero, sideways is the zero of the market movement! and it has the same importance as the uptrend or downtrend. Evenmore, sideways is a powerful signal that take a lot of time and analysis to interpret to read the markets. If you don't know how to read sideways, you may lost money.
Miembro desde Jul 23, 2010 70 mensajesDel(horse1bun)Aug 22 2011 at 22:36 (editado a las Aug 22 2011 at 22:57 )
Or traders that are LONG, SHORT or FLAT. it's always an important consideration to pay attention to who is entering and exiting the market. Although you or I can't know 'who' -per se- we can infer where traders are entering or exiting, and what might be motivating them to those ends. For example, as a ruler guide, look at BOJ interventions in the yen pair. I measured that an estimated 500 billion Yen bought them about 50 pips, or half a yen of upward movement, and you could tell when they had entered the market because of the size of the movements.
By looking at the tape and snake charts you can see movements happening in single tickss, smaller or larger, depending on who jumps onboard with what amount of money. The usual noise you see on tick chart is where individual systems are exiting or entering long or short positions, thus we get the tide motion, or see-saw, back and forth movements, at every level.
Just my observations and opinion about it... I want to delve deeper with this thought.
Miembro desde Jan 26, 2011 1367 mensajeszzzeroAug 23 2011 at 00:11 (editado a las Aug 23 2011 at 00:19 )
i used to have a friend named bob.
bob was a really cool kinda dude.
bob was a sailor that used to run dope and sht in his sailboat from south america.
he was fun to party with.
one time, i went over to his boat to visit him and he asks me if i like lsd.. and when i opened my mouth to answer him, he stuck it on my tongue. too late. i climbed the mast of my sailboat, all the way to the top, and then couldnt get back down... so i just stayed up there for a while..
anyways, my friend bob used to say that as soon as he figures out all of the answers that they seem to change the questions..
belief systems are very interesting, to those that are really in tune with what they mean.
but, even if the chart is sitting idle what will the next move be, up or down?
... mr coetzee has stated over and over and over that it is not possible to predict the direction of price, therefore he will never even attempt to solve the problem. this is my point.
Sometimes, if the chart is idle is because a trend is finishing their force, or market is expecting some external information (for example economic news) to validate or finish the trend. So it's good to ASSUME that the actual trend has ended and get out of that trade, or move your stoploss to the next support/resistance (according if you are going up or down) of the range of the idle movement, an dmove your TP far away. If the trend is continuing you will riding away, if not, you take your profit (or maybe your losses), through your stoploss, and the chart makes a retraction.
But my point with this example is that even if you can't state the direction of price, you can take decisions when you got idle. And here is another difference, and sorry to contradict Mr. Coetzee, but one thing is 'to state' (when you are sure about something and it has/can be proven) based on FACTS or KNOWLEDGE, and another thing is 'to predict', which is an assumption about something based on SUPPOSITIONS or BELIEFS, even if those are supported with statistics.
How beliefs are being constructed? belief is a mental representation of a concept. It's like a map, a map is a representation of a land, for example. but the map can be wrong if it's not validated with measures, tools, etc. So you receive information of a concept (may be trough your senses, or through external info) and you build th map of that concept in your mind.
In forex, there are so many beliefs that are constructed by others, even with the intention of distracting newbies to get them into the business. Have you ever think that the 5% forex winners (by 'statistics`) are throwing false or wrong info into the media to make the 95% losers to believe they can be into the 5% winner group? because the 5% need those 95% to be wrong. For example, if you can't predict the market movement, why there are too much info about technical (statistical) analisys in the forums? Have you think that the 5% winners has a different strategy which don't depend on the direction of the market, and throw that technical information and giving for free indicators to distract the 95% group?
Sometimes I see many traders that explain a new revolutionary idea on how to make profits in a different way in many forums, but soon they are shutted up by some 'senior' members, because the idea is against anygeneral forex belief system: 'Don't think that way! the trend is your friend!! keep your profits high and cut your losses!' (that's an example, I don't saying these assumptions are true or false).
my baby is asking me for attention so I will continue this discussion later.
Miembro desde Jan 26, 2011 1367 mensajeszzzeroAug 23 2011 at 03:43 (editado a las Aug 23 2011 at 03:51 )
a possible example of a belief is the 5% issue that you mention..
where did you get that five percent number from?
others spoon fed it to you from the first day that you began trading.
over and over and over.
they told you that 95% of traders lose.
when the brain receives input, the first thing that it does is that it tries to reject it.
it first looks into it's memory banks for examples of thought with which it can reject that which is fed to it as input.
it will reject that which is fed to it as quickly as it possibly can.
good riddance, the brain says..
get out and go away, the brain says.
but what happens when the brain is fed a thought for which there are no examples to compare it to and can be used to reject said thought?
it does not know what to do with that thought.
the brain wants to reject that thought.
it is my opinion that superstitions are an example of incorrectly formed belief systems.
had a bad stroke of luck? hmmm.. what caused that? uh-oh.. i did see a black cat walk under a ladder, omg..
thats it.. if a black cat walks under a ladder, bad luck is coming.
i met people from mexico that have some strange belief that they refer to as ojo, pronounced oh-ho, i cant remember the exact details of the superstition, but it had something to do with how one interacts with a child, they believe that if this action is taken with a child that you need to place a raw egg under the child's bed to prevent bad luck from coming to you. too weird.
so, anyways, what happens when something is told to you and you have never heard it before?
such as the issue about that a trader can not win every time..
Miembro desde Jan 26, 2011 1367 mensajeszzzeroAug 23 2011 at 05:26 (editado a las Aug 23 2011 at 05:45 )
<b>nice talk</b> my kindest of regards to you, fine sir.
<b>I don't understand why you have been banned by babypips</b> first, they got upset because i was not explaining my trading methods. that is the truth of it all. small minded traders are desperate to gather information, similar to how a pigeon is desperate to locate crumbs of bread and other types of food. traders that are lost do not even so much care if the information that they gather is valid or not, they just simply crave gathering new information. in fact, this is true of most all people, in general. this is why i studied intelligence, so that i might come to have a better understanding of people and why they do what they do. when people speak, it is for a couple of reasons.. they speak to request information, similar to an sql query of a database. they also speak to attempt to provoke another person into giving up information, which is similar to the previous issue of requesting information, but instead of just asking for it they are sortof attempting to trick you into spilling your beans. this is intelligence 101. ever speak to someone and they just wont engage you in conversation? it is a bit frustrating. this is why babypips got upset with me. i was not playing ball.
<b>and why some traders report you for non-sense posts.</b> the most common thing that an intelligent entity does is that it rejects new ideas and new information. some/most traders have never heard some of the things that i talk about, therefore they reject my ideas. when i speak of large concepts, such as castles and mclarens and such, these are new concepts to them, and they reject these ideas quickly.
one time, i had a short conversation with a young lady from los angeles:
me: the most common thing that an intelligent entity does is that it rejects new ideas and new information. she: well, i never do that. me: thank you for proving my point. she: i was not agreeing with you! me: again, thank you for proving my point.
she stomped away from me, cussing up a storm.
<b>this thread has more sense to me than many other threads I have read.</b> how nice of you to say this.
<b>Happy trading.</b> i like to think of it as stealing, legally.
in closing, i would like to clearly state my intentions..
not only do i have the ability to trade currency, i have the ability to literally alter the ratio at which currency is exchanged between opposing economies.
it is my most firm goal that my trading group will have the strength to acquire entire economies.
my trading group will be the strongest and wealthiest and most powerful trading group on earth.
my trading group will be regarded as a trading mafia.
and, btw, the most coveted client to trade for, in my opinion, is a government.
now, do you see why they reject that which i say? thank you.
btw, a castle really doesnt cost that much... it's the upkeep that is gonna be the big deal, lol..
my friend mark jackson will sit as the senior officer in this company.
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