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Hi there...
The true value of any given system at any given point in time is measured by EQUITY, not BALANCE.
If one were to close all open trades at market right now, the balance will adjust to equity, as opposed to the equity adjusting to balance.
I believe a fundamental problem with the reporting of system performance in MyFXBook (which I think is a great platform by the way) is that the true value of systems is by default obscured by balance emphasis instead of equity emphasis. My suggestion is that all of the primary reporting of system performance be by equity ranking, not bala......
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Well...
It's clear that the big stop set-up is a problem, but we already knew that.
The plan is to remove the most frequent / largest stop combination, that uses a VL40 & TD360 combination and works with an initial stop of 450 pips. While it has made some good wins in January the losses are simply too big when they hit.
In the meantime a new set-up that is designed to trade with SUSTAINABLE losses is being plugged in. As a result the chart activity will look significantly different going forward.
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About what you wrote -- in the context of our overly large hard stops you are absolutely right about the curve fitting issue. So as you are suggesting, for the past few days our emphasis has been on coming up with a configuration that takes many small losses but even more larger wins.
That's exactly what is running now on another account -- a set-up that enters about 100 trades per month with 57% or so winning and those winning trades being about 57% on average larger than the losers.
That release of the Volatility Trader (r3), running with this new configuration, will be under the acco......
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Thank-you wilkinson, there does seem to be some good potential.
Lately we have been working with signals that go long and short on cable simultaneously with very strong historical back testing results (some with 100% accuracy, both sides -- short and long, 6 months backtesting.) Again here though the trouble is the size of the stops. With that in mind the extreme potential losses and gains as well as averages are being computed for these set-ups using FX options to protect the positions.
In testing the main set-ups under review the results are encouraging, with only 2.3 winning trades ......
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Feb 1/10 update:
Well, we knew it had to happen sooner or later. Interestingly we had a solid month of gains without a single loss, and then it only took one loss to wipe out half of the gains.
Obviously the "Achilles heel" of our system is the SIZE of the losses. The winning trade rate is fantastic, but if a single loss takes out 2 weeks' earnings then either we need a near 100% success rate or we need to manage the loss size somehow.
Accordingly we are working on determining if some combination of new modeling with tighter stops and/or FX options (as insurance) and/or fu......
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2010 January 25 update:
Still going strong; still batting 100 so to speak. Interestingly we are getting differing signals at this point suggesting a potential for another drop in cable over the next few days. (The instance that is signaling short is 100% accurate in 6 month back-testing, so it will be interesting to see if it holds.) Also, due to the differing short-term and medium term signals, the system is currently hedging across chart instances.
Anyway, comments from experienced traders in the gallery are welcome. We have noticed that martingale set-ups and locked open trades ar......
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Just a quick update... With the GBPUSD cross hitting new low territory last night (during the euro session that is) the system closed out its short positions to maintain its 100% average. Will be interesting to see how long it can keep up this accuracy rate.
Note that VTr2 is expected to trade with decent accuracy (at this point!) but not 100% ongoing so if you are following our open trades please be careful as there are no guarantees!
thx, t.
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(That's because the central nervous system is extremely difficult to transplant successfully... And borrowing is probably a mistake anyway - I would suggest a full organ donation programme.)
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Thank-you pavelr.
Our long GBPUSD positions closed today with over 100 pips each... We'll see next how it does on these new short side positions. Still 100% after a couple of weeks.
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FX Traders,
Introducing the latest version of the "Volatility Trader" (Rel. 2.0) running live on a $30K account. All details are pretty much wide open at this point. Currently batting 100% after a week or so -- of course that can change at any time.
As far as can be understood from the design work and testing, this automation could work out well. We've got nothing to hide and a lot to gain if it works, so we thought we would just open it up and let it run. Be advised that there is some potential for floating losses as this is not a scalping system. That being said, VTr2 does n......
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