yes this system is an own development. We develop the Wolfpack system which is a modularized trading system which is instantiated then to trade different strategies. The 'Rat' is a certain personality of a trader, the one who is looking for small gains. in this case it is looking only for 20-30 pips per position to win, never more.
i.e. the Tiger strategy is looking into long movers only, and target 80 -200 pip movers.
the third component is the entry startegy. here it is the Bandit (using BollingerBands) strategy which is a famous commodity trading strategy being used hundreds of times. our reincarnation is classic entries + filters = special BB to avoid too much false entries and a pretty enhanced trade management, which is very close to how a human trader manages positions.
We have been working on these projects since end of last year, and get very confident now, as also forward tests show good results. The goal was to implement successful manual traders behaviour into automated system to be able to trade more than a single human trader can do at the same time.
there are some reasons why I dont spend time on older backtests.
1. I did not watch in realitime last years intraday charts, I know nothing about evenets, etc. so It makes not too much sense to qulify when happens what.
2. regardless hwat backtest we will make, tomorrow will learn us a new story. If you look at last 3 weeks. there was NEVER before such intraday moves as we have seen there. no backtest of data before march 2010 would reveal this to you.
3. We are optimizing the stragey for periods of markets. as we are going to trade them with largeer positions, we look on each trade rather than finding a maximal possible lotsize which made the strategy 'survive' without attention over a year or so. I believe it is a waste of time. I expect a 4 weeks period to be very profitable and the decide what has to be adopted to make the next 4 weeks. you have to decide for what you are optimizing. we decided to get each position right or cut back losses early.
But I wrote above, that we look for talented individuals who are interested in performing backtests and analysis to determine more parameters and possible traps. So if anone is interested to join the team, feel free to apply. That is the main idea to share the project results publicly and gain inspiration as well finding new talented traders.
thats why the backtests you see are selective. we target on that. knowing that the longterm trend of the euro is profitable for 3 monthes in a row means a lot to me, since I know that I will adjust for a single direction and increase the profit target 4 times in such conditions. at first this adjustments are done manually, over time they are added to the system and it gets more clever each time. Right now it has more than 20 different exit strategies and only a single entry strategy.
but you are definetly right a certain strategy works only in the right market conditions. thats why we paused for a month with this one, and waited until the strong amplitudes are back. This strategy requires strong market activity. it does not enter at all if we have a lethargic indecisive market as it was for weeks when the greek discussion cause so lame markets.
the actual strong moves and retracements are perfect for this strategy. in slow markets it does not trade at all.
you may keep an eye on the forward test with the target lotsizes we plan to go life for a month after one month of small-real money-test accounts showed sustainable results. . It appears that these few days we had explicit ideal conditions. It exceeds also my expectations. But I know that this is not the reality for many monthes to come. there will be weeks of suffering as with any system. we just hope to keep the success by training the system to stay at the sideline if the market is not favourable.
the thing is, we are preparing to trade the system life next month on investors accounts. By then we have hopefully fulltime traders in charge who are watching the trades to supervise and intervene if the conditions are no longer ok.
and: we still look for interested traders who want to work for money, trading the strategy on real accounts. we educate and train everybody in that program to be able to trade it manually and understand when intervention is necessary.
during development we never intervene the trades as we want to see when the strategy is trapped by unfortune events.
all this is incomplete info, stay patient we are working also on a website for the project as the business is planned to be expanded in future, and we are going to explain the system vision in more detail on those pages.