​EBC Markets Briefing | Turkey's lira hopeless; South Korean stocks roar ahead

The dollar was steady on Tuesday, hovering near a three-month high as a divided Fed spurred traders to rein in interest rate cut wagers. Emerging market currencies largely fell.

Turkish inflation eased to 32.87% annually in October, below expectations, according to official data that could reinforce the central bank's decision to slow but not stop its rate-cutting cycle.

Policymakers cut its benchmark repo rate by 100 bps to 39.5% last month, citing an increase in the underlying trend of inflation in September and flagging "a slowdown" in the disinflation process.

Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said on Friday that it appears difficult to hit the 25-29% forecast target range at the end of this year but added that disinflation would continue strongly in 2026.

Turkey's lira fell to a fresh record low this month amid expectations the authorities will allow it to keep weakening as long as does so less than the rate of inflation.

It has been in a strong downtrend for decades because of the lack of independence of the central bank. Unlike in other countries, the Turkish president has the power to hire and fire the central bank at will.

The lira traded unfavourably below its 50 SMA without any sign of a reversal. Therefore, selling the rally is recommended when the pair hits the resistance level again.

Asset recap

As of market close on 1 November, among EBC products, Amazon shares still led gains. OpenAI has signed a deal to buy $38 billion worth of capacity from AWS, its first contract with the leader in cloud infrastructure.

Kospi surged past 4,200, setting a new record high and ranking as the best-performing major stock index of the year. Several leading global banks recently upgraded their outlooks on Korean stocks.

Merck & Co. shares fell yesterday despite beating earnings expectations. The company revised its full-year profit guidance downward slightly, citing lower estimated tariff costs and other adjustments.

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