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"Just Oil"

Chikot
Jul 04 2012 at 22:10
2299 posts
I think adding after the signal and first entry would increase my risk. on the other hand if any of speculative trades turns into real signal, there might be profit taken and more added per signal as if previous entry did not exists. I am watching. have got quite a few speculative trades.

Chikot
Jul 05 2012 at 09:27
2299 posts
5% + unrealized. what if it will move in my direction further. cross fingers.

minosd777
Jul 05 2012 at 10:21
44 posts
My experience tells me that the market can move in both direction immediately after the news, it's better to wait one hour to let the big boys determine what the real impact of 'the decisions' will be, if there is any trend comming out of that I will be happy to ride the trend but with tight SL and small position. My week has been good, yours too, no need to take unnecessary risks

Chikot
Jul 05 2012 at 10:35
2299 posts
I know I know but then the whole trend can be missed. once train left the station I am not watching that pair until another ema's cross.
I closed a couple of trades by mistakes especially my eur/aud short. it is about 800 pips by now had I stayed. the risk I take on each trade is relatively small.
In any case I will be trying to get on the trend if trend changes. whipsaws are inevitable. but If i start closing trades lkike this I will miss good trends. 1 good trend might mean 3:1 to 6:1 R:R

Chikot
Jul 05 2012 at 12:01
2299 posts
set some TP and going to walk a baby for an hour. let's see. about 7% floating unrealized.

minosd777
Jul 05 2012 at 14:12
44 posts
The rate cut had a bigger impact than I anticipated..I could have made a lot more if I kept my positions open, but no regrets :)

The EUR/$ looks very weak now, the trend is in place:

1. A rate cut is always negative for a currency
2. The Italian 10-year yield is back above 6%, this will weigh on the pair
3. another rate cut in China
4. Continued bad economic news out of Europe

Taking all this together I don't see how the pair can rise, I expect at least a test of the pervious low of januari at 1.2280, below that there is not much resistance until the midpoint of the all-time range at 1.2130 and the low of may 2010 at 1.1880. So we may be in for a big move! I started to open a few short positions around 1.2380, I will add if it goes my way and I want to ride this trend for a while, stops at 1.2460.

Chikot
Jul 05 2012 at 14:22
2299 posts
closed half position on e/u for 250 pips., think too early , but ok. it is almost double what i risked. target was 280 pips. gbp/usd is closing to my profit taking target. will be interesting to see how things will work. 7+% floating. if I am really right that will be a kill.

Chikot
Jul 05 2012 at 14:24
2299 posts

   minosd777 posted:
   The rate cut had a bigger impact than I anticipated..I could have made a lot more if I kept my positions open, but no regrets :)

The EUR/$ looks very weak now, the trend is in place:

1. A rate cut is always negative for a currency
2. The Italian 10-year yield is back above 6%, this will weigh on the pair
3. another rate cut in China
4. Continued bad economic news out of Europe

Taking all this together I don't see how the pair can rise, I expect at least a test of the pervious low of januari at 1.2280, below that there is not much resistance until the midpoint of the all-time range at 1.2130 and the low of may 2010 at 1.1880. So we may be in for a big move! I started to open a few short positions around 1.2380, I will add if it goes my way and I want to ride this trend for a while, stops at 1.2460.


I simply think that probabilistically speaking it is a toss. once news go against you, next time with you. the key is to let profitabvle trades be bigger anbd cut losers. 1% on 100-140 pips stop is not much of a leverage.

Chikot
Jul 05 2012 at 19:28
2299 posts
not every pair has been running like e/u so took 20% of total position on all pairs where got 1:1 pip wise. 80% of positions left runing. looking to close another 30-40% of those positions while have 2:1 to 3:1 pips wise and leave the rest running.

Chikot
Jul 06 2012 at 13:10
2299 posts
Nice , all trades continued moving in my directions but some lags. Still have not received my funds. was told it takes up to 5 business days. may be it is because Monday was holiday in Canada and Wednesday holiday in USA. anyway, I missed many trades I could have taken live.

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