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Automated systems with 95% profitability - can this be true ?

posisipuncak
May 28 2015 at 11:50
19 posts
FxMasterGuru posted:
Being a victim of two EAs - supported by VERIFIED REAL MyFxBook accounts' results run at 'bucketshop' brokers, I would consider an account REAL and VERIFIED only if run at a highly regulated mainstream broker. The rest get a HUGE RED FLAG from me.


Sure skepticism is good, but he's not the only one getting great results

Alex
Look009
Jun 19 2015 at 13:19
224 posts
ScalpingRus posted:
mavericks posted:
theodoros1 posted:
I am watching some of the automated systems with profitability decisions of 95% meaning that 95 of all decisions going long or short was correct. ( example vortex trader pro ). I am wondering how is it possible to get an automated system so accurate ? And If you get it why the owners of it are not ultra billioners ? why people are not following them only instead of making own decsions ?


are those presented systems true ? or they found a way to present a fake true ? do anyone knows something more ?


Most of the times systems that accurate fail in the long run. Beeing accurate at that rate means relatively tiny take profit compared to stop loss.

Iam not saing that those systems are bad or all of them fail.
But most of the time its just a matter of time.


 I think that one would expect for a system to work in the long haul is what the problem is. It's like marriage... you want your partner to be loyal, but you yourself aren't, but you expect your partner to be. I think we should find managers who can run up an account, withdraw, and repeat. This way you get rid of expectations, which would of course encourage you to withdraw the profits which you have earned.



I agree.

cenetti
Jun 20 2015 at 10:56
9 posts
DD is the most importing parameter on a performance sheet. Trader could have 100000% Gain with 100% win but usually with over 40- 50% DD. That's a disaster waiting to happen.

That's a clear indication that the trader is keeping his losing positions open in a high leverage account. Ask yourself what if the position never comes back.. ? It's game over for everybody.

Low leverage + Low DD + Consistent and steady gain + high win rate = Good trader...

alexforex007
Jun 22 2015 at 04:30
774 posts
You have to run those EAs on live accounts for a few months or even a year to make sure it is really good, but it is interesting to ask why the creators dont use it for their own advantage only? humm.

vontogr (togr)
Jun 22 2015 at 13:12
4862 posts
95% profitability does mean nothing.
Important is DD and profit and pips

KATSUO KEI (KATSUO)
Jun 24 2015 at 14:04
84 posts
togr posted:
95% profitability does mean nothing.
Important is DD and profit and pips


exactly.

good system did not show monthly dd larger than 5% and gain less than monthly drawdown.

in reality if you see monthly stats :
gain 10% and dd 2% (good)
gain 1% and dd 5% (bad)
gain 5000% and dd 50% (bad)
gain 50% and dd 5% (very good system)

KATSUO KEI (KATSUO)
Jun 24 2015 at 14:04
84 posts
theodoros1 posted:
I am watching some of the automated systems with profitability decisions of 95% meaning that 95 of all decisions going long or short was correct. ( example vortex trader pro ). I am wondering how is it possible to get an automated system so accurate ? And If you get it why the owners of it are not ultra billioners ? why people are not following them only instead of making own decsions ?


are those presented systems true ? or they found a way to present a fake true ? do anyone knows something more ?


in your example, their system is high risk. in bad luck, they will get bigger loss than their average gain.

Ivan (StoneHeart)
Jun 24 2015 at 16:06
131 posts
The HIGH % WINNERs is not problem, it is possible.
Problem is even 1% LOSERs ... what to do with them ?
... If you have solution (for some % losers), there is NO PROBLEM !

Small GAIN, big WIN
Ivan (StoneHeart)
Jun 24 2015 at 16:09
131 posts
@KATSUO DD is EXTREMELY dependent by DEPOSIT !!!
If I TEST some new system, I will sure make it on LOW DEPOSIT ==> result is HIGH DD !!

@togr POSITIVE Pips result is definitely GOOD !

... everything else is DEPOSIT !!!

Small GAIN, big WIN
IXBONE
Jun 24 2015 at 21:31
97 posts
there are 2 dd's
dd= magnitude
mdd= duration

if you are 50% in profit and you magnitude to -50%, you are now be, you have lost time but no money!
if you start and reach -50% dd, this indicates a potencial loss IF you close your orders! if you further stay in, no money is lost! and now calc the mdd how long you need to recover from dd -50%, but keep in mind, as long you have not closed your orders, you have not lost any money!!!

as Ivan said Deposit, Deposit..
with 100k, 1k open orders are dd of 1%! with 25k in open orders, now we have 25% dd, which most trader acccept,
so relate you open orders to your deposit!

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