Morgan Stanley analysts point to two reasons for the rising of the euro. First, last year foreign investors have cut the rate of currency hedging in debt instruments in euros, reinforcing the upward pressure on the currency. Second, over the past few months accelerate the process of diversification of foreign exchange reserves in favor of the euro.
The EURUSD had a bearish momentum last week. Price slipped above the trend line resistance but closed back below the trend line resistance created a false breakout bearish scenario as you can see on my H1 chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.1100 – 1.1065 region. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.1220. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term retesting the trend line resistance and 1.1280 – 1.1300 region
Yesterday EURUSD rose with a wide range and closed near the high of the day, in addition managed to close above the previous day high, suggesting a strong bullish momentum.
However the pair did not had the strength to close above the 10-day moving average that is acting as a dynamic resistance, however is still above the 50 and the 200-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic support.
The key levels to watch are: The previous swing high at 1.1342 (resistance), a daily resistance at 1.1237, the 10-day moving average at 1.1205 (resistance), the 50 day moving average at 1.1110 and daily support at 1.1097.
The EUR/USD is trading higher today due to support level reached yesterday. The pair made a high of 1.1225 and is currently trading at 1.1215. Please be aware that we have important statement from FED's Chairman Janet Yellen in less than a couple of hours.
The euro recorded a second consecutive increase against the dollar on Tuesday. The growth of the single currency was significant and came suddenly before the end of the session. As a result, resistance at 1.1244 has been overcome. If the bullish trend continue in the future, the pair will test the key level at 1.1343.
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