I wouldn't be too optimistic about the rate hike news given. Altho the market prices a fair chance for a December hike. As Brent is down from levels above 55$ since late Desember, Natural gas is also below 3$ with a dipping momentum. US oil rigs are picking up pace. Metals are flattening out. This could pushing PPI and inflation lower again.
Think back to the US rate hike news, it took quite some time from the door was opened for it, till the hike came. And the EU still have poor employment (EU-28 unemployment at over 8%) and risky economies (Greece, Spain etc).
EURUSD is very likely to be a capped by 1.0950-1.10 level for all of 2017.
EURUSD is losing 0.27% at 1.0737 and a breach of 1.0704 (low Mar.16) would open the door to 1.0650 (100-day sma) and then 1.0634 (55-day sma). On the other hand, the next up barrier is located at 1.0765 (high Mar.17) followed by 1.0829 (2017 high Feb.2) and finally 1.0873 (high Dec.8 2016).
EUR/USD formed three spinning top candlesticks on the four-hour time-frame at the resistance at 1.0780 and started moving to the downside. The retracement will likely continue at least until it reaches the support at 1.0700.
The euro fell against the US dollar on Friday. By the close of US trading, EUR / USD is trading at 1.0738, losing 0.26%. I believe that support is now at around 1.0597, Tuesday's low, and resistance is likely at 1.0783, the high of Friday's trading.
On the last Friday’s session the EURUSD fell with a narrow range and closed near the low of the day, although the currency pair managed to close within Thursday’s range, which suggests being slightly on the bearish side of neutral.
The currency pair is trading above the 10 and the 50-day moving averages that should provide dynamic support but continues to trade below the 200-day moving average that should act as dynamic resistance.
The key levels to watch are: the 200-day moving average at 1.0855 (resistance), daily resistance at 1.0819, daily support at 1.0713, the 10-day moving average at 1.0653 (support), the 50-day moving average at 1.0653 (support), a daily support at 1.0622, other daily support at 1.0527 and other daily support at 1.0462.
At the moment EUR/USD is gaining 0.32% at 1.0772 facing the next up barrier at 1.0829 (2017 high Feb.2) followed by 1.0873 (high Dec.8 2016) and then 1.1300 (high Nov.9). On the other hand, a breach of 1.0726 (low Mar.17) would target 1.0704 (low Mar.16) en route to 1.0647 (100-day sma).
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