It is difficult to be optimistic about the EURUSD pair, at least until the market situation changes. Here it is worth noting that the author is a medium-and long-term trader (at least in his forecasts).
But what's important...
There was another global shock. A crisis that affected the entire Planet. We traders were waiting for events. And they came. The price on the charts has already formed strong fluctuations in both directions several times. And now...
A question hung in the air: 'Buy or sell?'
It is better to do without the third option: 'Stay out of the Market.'
The trader wants the Market to work for him, and therefore wants to act right now.
So, after all? Buy or sell...?
This is a very good question.
Everyone will answer it differently.
But it is already known that there are only two options. Which is good enough. This reduces the search for a solution by half.
Forex is very volatile. Especially in times of crisis. Fluctuations are so ' ragged” that even the most advanced expert risks being confused. Traders with less training do not allow profits to grow, and losses are often fixed when the price as a result goes in the right direction, throwing off the “impatient” bidder. Professional traders do not fix the profit they have already made, and it melts before their eyes, leaving them “with their own”.
No one-neither beginners nor professionals, can successfully jump on the “ragged” trend and ride with the wind. Of course, a few manage to do this. But the vast majority, as a result, lose money, or just 'stand still'.
How do I make myself one of those “units'...?
How to jump on a trend with high volatility and ragged lightning fluctuations...?
The answer may seem very complicated. But if you look at the situation from afar, you can build an approximate order of actions.
If you imagine a person who is located in a locality and who needs to analyze it... The city is large and it is impossible to see everything in its entirety from inside. If you don't go above it, for example, in a helicopter.
The further the helicopter rises into the sky, the more visible it is...
Namely, the longer-term chart you look at, the clearer the picture becomes. It is impossible to observe what is happening inside the day. You need to be a banking insider to extract profit from the rapid sharp waves of intraday. Traders, for the most part, are simple people and do not have insider information. This means that we need to act differently.
Because of the thirst for profit or fear, any forecast made for the medium-and long-term Outlook is blown to smithereens, as soon as the Market creates fluctuations in both directions for an impressive distance. You can sit at the monitor all weekend, carefully thinking and planning your actions in the Market, and on Monday morning be in a state of incomprehension of what is happening. At the same time, after some time, it becomes clear that the original intentions were correct... The market has already 'thrown off' the trader, and we can only reproach our own discipline...
Being on the stadium stand, it is easy to understand where to roll the ball, or where to run the football player - everything is visible. But it is difficult to make the right exact decision while on the field, when well-prepared opponents are running towards you. This is again, by the way, about the picture as a whole.
If you are unlucky enough to be an insider , you should not be discouraged. And you need to resort to the tactics of mid-term \ long-term (within reasonable limits, of course, from a technical point of view), which significantly increases the chances. History shows that such tactics are most profitable and less risky. And most forecasts are often correct, but not worked out, as seen initially, for all the same reasons mentioned above.
Any analyst from any field will confirm that the longer the time period is considered, the more accurate the analysis is.
So isn't there a whole half of the solution to the problem...?
That is, you need to be very patient, and even believe your forecast. And look less at the intraday charts. Only then can you start planning directly.
It is possible to discuss for a long time why the European currency has worse prospects than its American competitor...
But the analysis was done.
The fundamental picture is clear.
Power levels are visible.
The possible risks are known.
All that remains is to “line” the pending orders on the charts.
At first glance, it may seem like a grid (martingale). But no. This is not true. Placing orders should be carried out on the power (psychological) levels: peaks and troughs, borders of channels and triangles... And if you clearly use only them (levels), the number of pending orders placed will be small (for example, 4-5). And this can't be called a martingale. This is a competent averaging, in accordance with the forecast.
After all, it is already known that it is difficult to catch a peak or a depression. Averaging helps you enter the trend and not miss a possible continuation of the movement. In reasonable amounts (in relation to the balance), this is not fatal and even useful, if the forecast is correct, of course.
If the trader has put aside the 'wrong' forecast and adopted the “correct ' forecast, moreover, he is confident in it and in himself, then this is the second half of the solution to the problem.
It would seem that this is all science...
But then comes a difficult waiting period - the main job of a trader, during which the Market will repeatedly affect the psychology of each bidder. And this is where the main danger lies - the Psychology of the trader.
It is not difficult to predict the price movement. It is not difficult to interpret the technical picture on the charts. You can get used to and learn the characters and behavior of currencies. You can even be a good fundamental analyst.
But it is very difficult to control yourself. This is always the most difficult obstacle to overcome. And by the way, not only in trading, but also in life. For example, everyone knows that you can't smoke, but many people do. Everyone knows that you can't drink, but many people do. And most importantly, everyone knows that you can't lie, but they still lie.
These are the most striking examples of the difficulty of overcoming the psychological barrier.
Writing these kinds of articles, reviews, and comments usually helps the author's discipline as well. Everyone finds ways to overcome the psychological obstacle for themselves. Then it's all good. The main thing is that it would work.
Therefore, the initiative of the ForexDengi portal to create a NetAir for traders ' diaries is a very popular idea. And, as practice shows, it is very effective if you apply a comprehensive approach. But this is already from the category of strategy.