In the Forex Market, the EURUSD currency pair performed well last week. 100% execution of the expected movements brought more than 100 points of floating profit. And at the end of the trading week, on Friday, the us dollar began to lose previously achieved boundaries on the background of profit-taking by some traders.
The Forex Master strategy is not a “scalper ' strategy. And Friday's growth, which clearly dissolves the accumulated floating profit, is not a reason to close the position. Entering the Market is always difficult and difficult. Almost always after the entry, some drawdown on equity is formed. If Friday's growth stops at the upper limit of the 4-hour southern channel and the price turns on Monday at the auction, it will look like another classic version of working out the technical level. The market does not always show predicted movements. But very often this happens. Therefore, the drawn 4-hour channel should not be taken seriously. This is just a 'help'. In this situation, there is a risk of the pair moving North. After the fall, growth occurs. But where are the reasons for growth? Neither Europe nor the United States has them. But in this case, the EURUSD pair is on the swing (or scales). And if anyone is getting stronger in the current conditions, it is the dollar.
The crisis has not gone away. Fears for the global economy are mostly negative. It is felt that the EURUSD pair is moving down not because of the strength of the dollar, but because of the weakness of the Euro. The fundamental background for the Euro currency is very contradictory and unstable. European politicians have demonstrated their inability to agree on anything. And in the US, decisions are made much faster. As part of the post-crisis recovery, the United States will also be ahead of Europe. The pair calmed down in their bursts and after all the panicked movements up and down again found themselves at the same levels where they were before the beginning of the coronacrisis. Buyers can try to drive the price higher, but sellers will become more active at the upper borders of the descending channels. Selling on growth is still the best tactic. The EURUSD pair has entered its long drawn-out trip to the South. Bulls try to buy at a low price. But why do they think it's time to buy? What if the trend continues?
After such images, and even supported by the appropriate fundamental, you can draw target lines. Zones marked by three depressions, where the first green border will be passed in the direction of parity. After reaching it, the pair will continue to move to the levels of 2000-2002, the second green line at 0.8618.
Now the pair is moving South due to the overall negative background. And then it will move South, because America will recover faster, and emerging macro statistics will cause interest rates to rise, which in turn will continue to play in favor of the dollar. At the same time, a crisis of integrity and unity will break out in the European region. This will put pressure on the Euro in the long term.
The Forex Master strategy includes an offensive campaign to the South on the EURUSD currency pair. If the pair continues to move down next week, it will be possible to state the continuation of the trend and the price separation from the entry level. Having a constant floating profit on equity is always useful for the account. the So-called proto-traded profit zone will help smooth out the inputs for other transactions, and in case they go into the negative, it will compensate them. Positions can be held open for a very long time. The swap is not credited. You can let your profits grow. And while this is happening, nothing prevents you from looking at another currency instrument.
You can add a few touches to the long-term technical picture. The price is located near the lower border of the multi-year triangle and it looks like it intends to break through from the top down. Then there are three depressions from 15-16 years in the immediate vicinity. Then the level of parity becomes attractive. There is ample indirect evidence of the intention of the Market.
Using the three-screen system, it is very convenient to observe the development of events. Intraday timeframes are not confusing, and senior TF objectively show the situation. The long-term fundamental is not in favor of the European currency. Still, the growth of the pair should be considered as an opportunity to enter the sale. The higher the pair rises, the more profitable levels the Market will give us.
The last video summit of the EU countries did not bring any agreements on sensitive issues, in particular the so-called grants and concessional lending. The panelists left the Market confused. We can only observe the harmful consequences of such failed attempts to find a solution for all members of the European Alliance.
There were proposals to use strong incentive instruments in the form of 1 trillion euros. They could be distributed within the budget for the next 7 years. But misunderstandings about where to Finance this rescue operation still prevail.
The German Chancellor said that her country's contribution to the General Fund can be increased, but does not support the idea of preferential loans and grants. On the contrary, the head of the European Commission, von der Leyen, suggests combining funding.
At the beginning of May (06.05.20), another EU summit is expected, which will obviously take place in a tense atmosphere. The Northern countries of the Alliance do not agree with the southern Europeans on the source of funding. Also, the delay in the implementation of such a program of assistance until 01.06.20. and the desire to shrug off the decision-making process, placing this burden on the European Commission. This is very negative news for Europe and for the fate of the Euro currency. After all, the meeting did not come to any decisions that are fundamental to the existence of the European Alliance itself.
Before Friday's profit-taking, when EURUSD started to pull back up, Forex continued to sell the pair on the sly in response to this news. Similarly, Italian government debt spreads tend to expand. The Italian government has very little choice. The pandemic crisis continues to have an impact, and Italians have not yet developed clear plans to leave the European Union, or establish a new Italian currency. In the medium term, the Italian government can find money through fiscal tightening and measures by the European Central Bank as part of the purchase of PEPP. In any case, clouds are gathering again over the southern EU countries.
Unlike the United States, in Europe, politicians take a very long time to make decisions. It takes a lot of time to approve and reschedule meetings. The European car is very slow. If this continues, America may take the lead in the post-crisis recovery race. The crisis affected the United States no less. But unlike their European partners, they can make any decisions in a noticeably short time.
This fundamental will be reflected in the technical picture of the EURUSD pair. This is especially clear on the monthly chart. Still, the best tactic is to sell the pair after growth.
HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors.
Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance.
You could lose some or all of your initial investment. Do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.
Any data and information is provided 'as is' solely for informational purposes, and is not intended for trading purposes or advice.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.