The EURUSD pair is trying to recover. But in an ongoing pandemic, sellers show themselves as soon as the pair grows back. On the daily chart, the price is near the descending moving average. And all this happens inside the descending channels, and even at the lower border of the global triangle. From a technical point of view, this market positioning implies the continuation of the southern trend. However, the eagerness of buyers to enter at profitable low levels does not allow the trend to continue. As a result, we have a swing in the flat. Bears sell on growth, bulls buy on decline. Here you need a good trigger to push the Market. And it may happen today. The first attempt will be made at the time of the release of US GDP data. Second attempt during the fed's press conference. The EURUSD price will be subject to increased volatility. But it is possible to move “back and forth”. As a result, the price will return to its previous levels, from which it will be possible to forecast more clearly.
While in the current conditions, nothing should be touched, even if the price rises above the market entry level (1.0866), we should still expect a resumption of the downward trend. This means that the growth of the pair should be considered as an opportunity to sell at more profitable levels. In the case of a rising pair, sellers should not be made worse by selling on every rise. You need to allow the price to overcome the distance to the previous daily peak (~1.0980). Near this level, sellers can be activated. Within the current southern trend, there is still confidence about the direction of movement. This facilitates tactical maneuvers.
The EURUSD pair on Thursday sharply tore North, breaking through the bottom-up border of the hourly channel, thus ending the multi-day red tape in the side corridor. Traders decided that they should buy. Well. The movement has appeared, we are working with it. When I reached the level of 1.0962, I manually sold 0.01 lots (I didn't wait for the price to equal the previous peak on the daily chart and trigger a pending order). All the same, if up — means up. But if down, then the distance traveled would not want to miss. So I sold it manually. Thus increasing the total volume of the transaction twice, to 0.02 lots. At the same time, the level of the first entry into the Market (1.0866) moved exactly half the distance closer to the current price level. If the initial entry was at 1.0866, now it is at 1.0914.
At the time of writing the review, the pair has already overcome the previous daily peak and continues to move higher, already to the next power level ~1.1117. Where the pair should be sold again. If you double the volume again, up to 0.04, you will be able to count on more than a thousand profit points multiplied by 4, which is quite good. If the level of 1.0990 falls before the onslaught of the bulls, and they can push the price North, closer to the next daily peak, then the bears will aggressively protect the height, because in the current situation, it is a mistake to buy risky assets.
The previous daily peak at ~1.1145 is psychologically significant, because it is located near the upper border of the weekly southern corridor (it looks good on the Daily). In addition, if this is a correction within the downward trend, it will be too long after reaching 1.1145, and it is time to continue the trend to the South. But we can assume that the pair can continue to grow until it becomes clear that the cancellation of restrictive measures was hurried.
We are talking about the second wave of the crisis. For example, in Germany, the number of diseases has jumped again. And in the World in General, the spread of the virus has not yet been contained. It is not clear what opening of economies politicians are talking about. The virus is not defeated. And people will be put in serious danger if they are released from their homes. The crisis will strike again. The quarantine will continue.
The growth of the EURUSD pair should be considered as a sale at a better price, i.e. sell on growth with the goal of parity (~1.0014).
The flexibility of the account allows you to go into a safe drawdown. No matter how far North the price moves, I will be able to pull my entry level closer to it (to the current one). At the same time, the volume will increase, which is the desired outcome. That is, when the position reaches the parity level, it will be at least 0.04 lots.
Well, if the “unthinkable 'happens, and the price of EURUSD, breaking out of all channels, goes further North, then it should be allowed to trade calmly to the 'unthinkable' level - the first daily crisis peak ~1.1460 (I put the Sell Limit lower: 1.1404). In this case, the risk premium will increase to 0.08 lot. And this is the distance of 2000 points to parity, multiplied by 8. After this scenario, if the position goes far South into the positive zone, you can look at entering the Market with another instrument.
The zone of the first crisis peak ~1.1460 is almost the last line of defense of the bears. Reaching this area will mean deciding the fate of the entire trend. This is either a continuation to the South or a u-turn to the North. Therefore, if there are clear signs of the intention of the price to continue moving up, you should conduct a special operation to exit sales, while not fixing a loss. In case of a negative Outlook for an open position, the maximum approach of the entry level to the current price will be made. This will allow you to 'jump out' without losses from a bad deal.
But this scenario is too sad. Although, during the time of observing the Market, I noticed one pattern: All the worst that can happen-always happens. There will be no miracle. Knowing this, the trader should worry in advance about what he will do if he goes into a 'no-exit' drawdown. A trader is not a God. It is impossible to always correctly determine whether a global trend is continuing or is already unfolding. Practice shows that in about 6-7-8 cases out of 10, the trader opens the correct positions. And to close the gap on the wrong positions, you should apply mechanical influence on the situation. In my case, trading is conducted on the MetaTrader 5 terminal, which allows you to correct these most erroneous market entries when trading on the Netting type of transaction accounting, getting away with it in the literal sense.
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