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How to improve the odds in trading

JC (johncarrus)
Feb 01 2014 at 00:47
42 posts
Donex posted:
johncarrus posted:

I'm not here to argue either and I truly Value everyones thoughts and opinions. Can you guys post your favorites accounts on myfxbook so i can take a look at them?


Those are great points.. as this (Theory) is just an experiment at this point. I do hear that swing trading is the way to go for big money. My main goal here is to be right 80% of the time.. which so far I am with 50 trades on my belt. I don't think that's luck because I screen my trades very closely. But again.. This is just a test :)

Also.. can you guys post your personal trading accounts? I would love to see how you guys are doing.. Thanks!


Hey JC

I don't think anyone in this thread is arguing or being belligerent, but rather as yourself just giving opinions.

I'm sure like everyone else, I wish you well and hope you achieve your quest. Unfortunately in FOREX, forward testing is governed by time. Would be nice to forward test a system for 1 year in 1 week, but the reality is that to forward test a system for 1 year, it actually takes 1 year and of course it also needs a fair sample size of volume.

Your results are great for a month, but it's just a month. Your trading strategy goes against all the mathematical probabilities so that is why I feel in the long run it will fail. But hey, I hope I'm wrong. I know you said you're filtering out the bad trades and taking only the good ones, but unless you have a reliable crystal ball then that will also eventually fail you. (Again, I hope I'm wrong)

There are plenty of people selling winning systems in roulette. Most of them work but only short term. In the long run, the mathematical edge cuts in and they will lose all their winnings and capital.

In my experience, you can't fight the maths, the maths will always win and conquer. Better to get the maths on your side rather than against you.

Again, I wish you well and I hope you prove me and the others wrong. I'll be the first to admit that I was wrong and congratulate you for doing the seemingly impossible. Good luck with it, and that's a genuine good luck.

You can view members systems by going to their profile, and if they have any public systems you'll be able to see them.


I agree with everything you said :) The thing is... . I don't see many people winning in this market with those rules. I've experienced the huge drawdowns with BIG money and i personally want to minimize risk in any and every way. Thanks for the tip!! :)

When the waves are good- Ride them, If they are not, wait for the next set
JC (johncarrus)
Feb 01 2014 at 00:50
42 posts
Donex.. your trading looks great btw! Did you create an EA?

When the waves are good- Ride them, If they are not, wait for the next set
Donex
Feb 01 2014 at 03:07
90 posts
johncarrus posted:
Donex.. your trading looks great btw! Did you create an EA?


Hey JC

Thx, but it's still early days, 6 months is not a large sample, nevertheless it is a sample. If it can maintain those stats for a year, 2 years, 3 etc, well I won't complain. But it's a big 'If'. All I can do is just let the EA do it's thing and see what it's like in another 6 months.

My backtesting showed long periods of stagnation, 2-3 months of stagnation is common, the worst was in 2008 which had 6 months. Live trading is also giving me these long periods of stagnation but it's just part of my system.

I've tried everything possible to increase the win rate which decreases the stagnation. I can increase the win rate, but then it affects the avg win/avg loss. What you take in one hand you have to give in another. You just can't have everything. Just need to find a tolerable reasonable medium.

Yes, I wrote the EA myself. I know java programming, so didn't take too long to work out MQL4.

Hate your losers more than you like your winners
JC (johncarrus)
Feb 01 2014 at 14:58
42 posts
Very good! I like how you vary the risks. Since your an EA programmer.. have you seen any EA's on this website that are worth purchasing?

When the waves are good- Ride them, If they are not, wait for the next set
Donex
Feb 02 2014 at 00:38
90 posts
No I haven't. But you seem like a smart fella. You really think anyone would sell an EA or a manual system that performs really well? Wouldn't they more likely setup a MAM/PAMM account.

I subscribe to certain youtube 'FOREX experts'. I'm a little disturbed, I love to hate em. I don't know, I seem to get a kick from listening to them. They are almost all con men selling systems or robots.

Lately, one particular fella is selling an EA for $2500. His done a whole heap of funky videos showing how good this EA is. I mean I wanted to buy it (just kidding, but these guys are good) He claims this EA last year made 810% with a max DD of 10%. He claims people that already have the EA are making 9% a week.

Now, if anyone believes that, then they deserve to lose the $2500. Sure, I feel sorry for the simple vulnerable type, but those with half a brain and still purchase this EA, well no sympathy for them. In the comments section of the vids, you have no idea how many people were queuing up to buy this EA. It's sad.


Hate your losers more than you like your winners
JC (johncarrus)
Feb 02 2014 at 16:50
42 posts
Yah everyone is clinging to hope and lose their rationality. I've been a sucker myself and have learned my lessons. I blame my young age for my ignorance lol.

You made a very good point about (You really think anyone would sell an EA or a manual system that performs really well? Wouldn't they more likely setup a MAM/PAMM account.)

It's sad to see people lying constantly and selling crappy systems. I used to be in the business sector and had to leave it because i saw way too many scumbags pushing crappy products just to make a buck.

When the waves are good- Ride them, If they are not, wait for the next set
Donex
Feb 02 2014 at 23:02
90 posts
johncarrus posted:
Yah everyone is clinging to hope and lose their rationality. I've been a sucker myself and have learned my lessons. I blame my young age for my ignorance lol.

It's sad to see people lying constantly and selling crappy systems. I used to be in the business sector and had to leave it because i saw way too many scumbags pushing crappy products just to make a buck.


Hey you're not alone being a sucker. I've been sucked in plenty of times, but not anymore. I will never ever be sucked in by these shysters again, but I've had to pay (with dollars) for that wisdom and experience by being sucked in. Tough and hard way to learn, but I don't know of any other way. I now know their tactics and methods.

I wish I didn't have a conscience, I would be doing exactly what they are doing (I think I could even do it better) and make a fortune.

Hate your losers more than you like your winners
wlk1
Feb 03 2014 at 14:55
69 posts
I did sign up for an online course when I first began in 2010. I'm not sure if I'm allowed to name it here, but the site pops up on the first page if I google 'learn to trade forex'. He teaches how to trade price action with nothing more than candle patterns with support and resistance. I have to admit that it is not a complete waste of time/money. If you really didn't know a thing about trading forex, and needed a primer it would have been a decent place to start.

He had some pretty good ideas, strategy and tips. I did it for a few weeks/months and I was breaking even. In hindsight, the system that he was teaching may actually have been profitable in the long run. Its a pity his training materials were not very well presented or organized, and I gave up.

I would't consider myself a sucker, but I did pay money to learn. :)


9% a week ? Thats like almost 900% a year with compounding. If I start with USD1000, I would have USD88,320 at the end of the year, and by the end of year 2, I'd have USD780mil. Where do I sign up ?


The market will go up, failing which, it will go down.
JC (johncarrus)
Feb 03 2014 at 18:43
42 posts
wlk1 posted:
I did sign up for an online course when I first began in 2010. I'm not sure if I'm allowed to name it here, but the site pops up on the first page if I google 'learn to trade forex'. He teaches how to trade price action with nothing more than candle patterns with support and resistance. I have to admit that it is not a complete waste of time/money. If you really didn't know a thing about trading forex, and needed a primer it would have been a decent place to start.

He had some pretty good ideas, strategy and tips. I did it for a few weeks/months and I was breaking even. In hindsight, the system that he was teaching may actually have been profitable in the long run. Its a pity his training materials were not very well presented or organized, and I gave up.

I would't consider myself a sucker, but I did pay money to learn. :)


9% a week ? Thats like almost 900% a year with compounding. If I start with USD1000, I would have USD88,320 at the end of the year, and by the end of year 2, I'd have USD780mil. Where do I sign up ?



Yah we all need the beginners course on forex. What's your quote about by the way?

When the waves are good- Ride them, If they are not, wait for the next set
wlk1
Feb 03 2014 at 19:39
69 posts
@johncarrus : it was something @Donex mentioned. Some guy selling an EA that does 9% a week.

Most of the time, people end up paying alot more that their course fees for their 'beginners course' 😁

I think one of the greatest problems that people new to forex face is the sheer amount of noise/misinformation out there. My favorite : there's a system, strategy or method that can predict where the markets are going. 😂

The market will go up, failing which, it will go down.
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