You are a huge risk...consider what you did in the US Yen where you placed several trades that were 50% of your account size. It's a matter of time before you go KABOOM! Not even worth wasting my time sorry to say. You must be a rookie! By the way it's not Drag Down it's Draw Down.
Bob, you must be wealthy guy. Capital must be substantial in order to be satisfied with 2%. As I am of hungry type I definitely need more. Especially that I have no funds to speak about of and been trading TST Combines to get funded. To get funded with say $50K account trader has to make 7% in 20 trading days with lots of limit reducing parameters and rules not to be broken and also trailing equity stop to add some spice. I did made it this month. 7% on $50K with $60 max DD but was not able to meet target for some 6 months which says it is not easy to make with proper risk control and size.
I would say 4-5% monthly would definitely satisfy me. As I am trading futures I find it risky to have EA trading unless trader watches markets at all times and especially leaving EA to run things with trades overnight.... limit up/ down move can really hurt. Plus market behavior changes like weather.
But if you have enough funds by all means 2% is nice.
I also enjoy trading and my trading hours are limited some 2-2 1/2 hours daily so it is not a pressure on me. Especially that I hate beaches.
ForexAssistant posted: 'No EA can be successful long term left as is.'
I guess I would have to ask what is 'long term'.
'Market changes and it might change on a dime within just 1 day.'
Possible but if your money management system is in place, any losses will be negligible. Still any actively traded account will do better than a fully automated one, unless better means that you add in all the other benefits of dancing on the beach in the evenings and lazy walks through the markada as apposed to working for a living. Traders should make more they are after all working for it. I am retired, well almost retired. Anyway, I am not going to use my limited time on this Earth doing something that a robot could do and with less stress.
I mean I can make 2% a month without working and about 5% a month by actively trading all month, so I am only making 3% a month for my labor and time. ? Not real appealing to me but if you're hungry, then actively trading can get your portfolio big enough where 2% can take care of all your needs, for now. Needs change fast than the markets do, but a portfolio of $250,000 at 2% a month is $5,000 a month, I can live with that.
Still there is always improvements and you will want to keep up with the changes, both markets and trading options over time but that brings us back to the question, how long is 'long term'?
Getting a higher return is easy, getting a higher return while maintaining a safe risk level, that's what is hard. It's not that it isn't doable, there was that one trader that was using hedging to reduce risk, had 9 pages of open trades which made my head swim but the hedging seems to work. As I showed, I can get 4% with the P-I-G and still be safe but I can also get 2% a month and be even safer.
Every place on all of these forums we see trader carrying the banner of high profits, above 4% a month, 4-10% a month... So what, it is meaningless without also applying some correlation to the risk required to get these large returns.
This is a well establish concept in the older markets but one which evidently needs revisited in the forex world.
Let's use stocks to explain our problems so we don't get too close to anything anyone is doing. Lets say we have $50,000 to invest and someone said that we should invest in penny stocks, and buy 50 different ones putting $1000 into each of the fifty at $0.25 per share. With 50 penny stocks in our portfolio one is bound to take off to $2.50 a share. 1000% return on profits. Wow, at 4000 shares ($1000/$0.25) we have 4000 X $2.50 = $10,000
Oh boy, with a 1000% profit I don't know if I made money or lost it because we don't know what happened to the other $40,000. If they all kept their value then no problem our portfolio grew by 20% but if half of those other companies went out of business then instead of making $10,000 our risk was too high and we lost $10,000.
Percentage of profit without some measure of what risk is involved, is meaningless and inherently dangerous to the poorly informed. And we have the tools to show some relationship, like the profit factor and the Sharp ratio. Of course I realize that they are not able to properly evaluate risk for all types of trading, like a profit factor of 3897.28 is so large it hardly makes sense. So does that mean that there is no chance of loss with this system? that is so stupid, it's not worth discussion but it is an indicator as to a relevant safety factor as it is applied to the profit percentages.
I would like to recommend that we ask managers posts to include something like
name : RISE Yearly profit percentage : 12% Sharp ratio : 3.78 Profit Factor : 3897.28 Trading Stryle : Systemic / fully automated robotic. Limitations : Not usable on US brokers - designed primarily for investors and as a safer addition to balance traders holdings. Additional Information : https://www.myfxbook.com/members/ForexAssistant/rise-audcad/578913 Representing 13 months.
I think that is pretty inclusive and an obvious invitation to any that might be interested without bogging down the conversation and tell the would be investors something real without make everyone have to dig out the facts.
I would add the following to the above strategy description:
Monthly Profit: 0.93% Max. DD: 9.46% -- In other words it takes 10 (i.e. TEN) months (statistically) to recover from a max. DD scenario (like the current one).
Also, it might be also interesting that the named strategy is in constant DD since the end of January, including open positions since January 8th, 2014. Although not pretty, I guess these details add some more valuable information.
Nice? lol far from it. There is a reason why he only has 3 months worth of testing... statistics show that he is piling up the lot size to recover i.e in due time and slowly it will capitulate not to mention a very small profit factor as well as losses are on average bigger than wins. Hence why only a handful of trades. I forgot to mention so far his max DD is 18 which is far bigger then any profitable month. The only thing is his favour is trading small lot size to try and recover losses this might help him stay afloat for a good period of time. Good luck and when you've blown FxMasterGurus' money I will be the first to blow the trumpet.
@FxMasterGuru No, all of that is available in the added information, that's where you got it I believe, so nothing is hidden. Some people understand the difference between systemic trading systems (a subset of fundamental trading) and technical systems. Technical traders had better pay attention to draw down, where its not so important with systemic systems because I can tell you what the draw down will be for any price. It's all mathematical. But if you don't know that then the dd will scare you away and you will stay with the technical systems that you're comfortable with. I will of course help the ones that ask me to explain it to them.
See you looked at the fact that the system was always in draw down, (and it is always in draw down, that is how it works), and assumed that this must be a problem instead of something new that has never been accomplished before. Over 3000 trades with one loss for 8 cents, is not some kind of a fluke and yet, some would rather miss the fact that something is different here and look at what they don't understand which makes them run away. I understand this completely. I wish there was something that I could do to instill logic in an emotional world but in this case, I have reached the boundaries of my limitation, I can not do this. And I think it may even be wrong to try.
@HolyCow 'Bob, you must be wealthy guy. Capital must be substantial in order to be satisfied with 2%'
Hardly, My wife is still working and everything that I do goes right back into the investments. Our first goal is $250,000 but we're not there yet. But 2% isn't all that shabby, if a waitress took $250 for investments a month for ten years at 2%, she would be able to then take out $2,000 for the rest of her life. If she waited 5 more years, before withdrawing any funds, she would have $5,000 a month. 2% and time is a powerful alley. But actively trading an account is still faster, no question.
Note: the systems discussed in the top portion of this post is a different system than the bottom part to HolyCow.
FXMasterGuru - the system only recently started trading on an MT4 account - hence the short myfxbook record. (Most institutional traders wont trade on MT4).
I have for your (and any other interested party) due diligence, 18 months of broker statements for this manager.
Let me know your interest.
So you've come here to show us rubbish and claim you have longer term trading of a better system because lets face it if it were the same you could easily show us longer trading periods of the system you tried to con us into...so does that mean we are supposed to trust and believe everything you say right even though you a scum and scammer want to trade i.e lose other peoples money rather than trade millions of your own which you don't have because your nothing but a failure in life and in forex and can't make more millions except from scamming people, yes? Can you see how stupid you are looking now? Or shall I shred more of you and your pathetic one day wonder system? I recall not long ago you were trying to con people on here to use other crappy systems you had fool only to blow up their accounts. Do correct me if I'm wrong...but last time I was wrong was just before birth.
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