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Global CRASH -this September Take your money and run or what ???

AliKhan1 (AliKhan1)
Sep 01 2015 at 06:31
124 posts
RedRhinoLab posted:
theHand posted:

All we need now is a trigger event. If one of the top 5 banks go, they'll all go. 2008 was 1 bank. Imagine they all fail at once.
.
Not even close to 1 bank. The list of bankrupted banks takes a few scrolls of the mouse.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_banks_acquired_or_bankrupted_during_the_Great_Recession

History always repeats itself and one mans lose is another mans gain. These events create the perfect opportunity for conglomerates to become stronger and/or new creation of them.

What we've seen this month is just a simple flash back of how quickly the tickers turn red, panic spreads, and wealth is shifted to another.

We can see a 25% appreciation/depreciation in FX currencies in the next 4-5 months, 100% in Commodities in the next 1-2 years, and stock markets moving 2-5% daily.


Which commodities you mean 100%? thanks

To achieve 3-5% portfolio growth a month
theHand
Sep 01 2015 at 09:47
365 posts
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-31/russian-military-forces-arrive-syria-set-forward-operating-base-near-damascus

As I mentioned previously, there's a strong motive to have this conflict, which doesn't have anything to do with Syria.


DrVodka
Sep 01 2015 at 11:20
297 posts
theHand
Sep 03 2015 at 19:37
365 posts
@DrVodka

This is probably the reason why dollar is so strong. It's technical, has nothing to do with long term outlook. It's the fx equivalent of a short squeeze. I wouldn't bet against it.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-03/global-debt-deleveraging-it-our-doorstep

FXtrader2010
Sep 04 2015 at 02:40
724 posts
theHand posted:
@DrVodka

This is probably the reason why dollar is so strong. It's technical, has nothing to do with long term outlook. It's the fx equivalent of a short squeeze. I wouldn't bet against it.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-03/global-debt-deleveraging-it-our-doorstep

 You think the dollar is strong because of technicals!??! What technicals precisely. Lot of 'ifs' here.

theHand
Sep 04 2015 at 07:49
365 posts
I don't mean technical in terms of this indicator or that indicator. There's an issue in the market that needs to be resolved before the fundamentals can come back into play.

In this case it appears that a lot of dollars were borrowed (nearly for free) and used in say emerging markets (which would require selling dollars to convert to local currency). As the dollar gets stronger fx losses occur on whatever the money was used for. So the investment needs to be closed and dollars bought to return the free money.

Stronger the dollar gets the more this happens and you end up with what we have here where it essentially becomes a squeeze. So no matter what the fundamentals are saying, it's a technical move. And will continue till the issue is resolved, then the fundamentals will come back hard and fast.

We had exactly the same thing in 2008. That's why when we expect the dollar to be under pressure it isn't. And this is looking a hell of a lot like 2008, but with about 7 times more debt if I remember correctly.

theHand
Sep 04 2015 at 09:13
365 posts
I don't really know what the exact mechanism is. It doesn't matter. It's a bit like driving a modern Merc. I know there's internal combustion at work, but I don't know what all the other stuff bolted onto the engine does. Nor do I need to know. I just need to handle the things that keeps it going, like put juice when its empty.

My point is fx will do what it wants to do for reasons that might not be apparent at first. Commen wisdom is you look at the fundamentals and then trade technically in that direction.

Well that doesn't work, becuase of technical moves like this, where the fundamentals are temporariliy inconsequencial.


DrVodka
Sep 04 2015 at 11:29
297 posts
i 100 % agree with you theHand . its called - dead cat bounce if u know what i mean ..😎

i notice one thing .just before FEDS ( almost agreed ) to raise the interest rates - markets went CRAZY . imagine what is going to happen if they do it for real !!!

P.s can't wait to see that happen

theHand
Sep 04 2015 at 13:53
365 posts
I don't think a multi year trend can be called a dead cat bounce. Trillions that need to be unwound here. QE started in 2008 still going. A heck of a lot of time to print money.

DrVodka
Sep 04 2015 at 17:50
297 posts
Dow J down 2 %
S& P down 2 %
FTSE down 2.5 %
NIKI down 2 %

this been going on for weeks now .And i don't see the end of it . soon the currencies will turn against the dollar . fundamentals are always right ( well , most of the time anyway ) .😀

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