Happy to comment...I agree, and of course I have been pretty worried since the USD fell significantly against most currencies at the same time as the AUD shot up...other charts were affected too, but AUD/USD was by far the biggest concern. Any straight Martingale system would have lost all my money for definite, but as the FFR system allows you to set the maximum string length now, which I had set to the default of 10, it still gives me some scope for recovery.
It has been correctly pointed out earlier in this thread that any Martingale-based system have an inherent weakness in that if currencies Trend it can mean it doesn't bounce back before your money runs out. At least with FFR I was able to set a backstop to the loss so it only traded 10 times. This is the biggest chart movement I have seen on Forex for some time, with the chart reaching 29 year highs, and I still have a chance of recovery. I am at the mercy of the USD, but I understand that this is unavoidable when trading Forex as the USD is by far the most traded currency.
I am trying all the time to learn from what is happening in the markets and to be safer I will reduce my maximum trades down to 9 as a first step...FFR does give you the power to influence the outcome and control the risk, but events like this do test your default settings. Still keeping my fingers crossed that the AUD doesn't continue to rise to even higher record levels.
The questions now are: What now? Are you going to continue using the robot on your other real account (FFR1)? Do you believe that you will find the perfect settings for the robot? Maybe try other robots? Will you ever consider manual trading?
I have just lost considerable amounts of (real) money using Fielding's system. I'm thinking I may just cut my losses and ditch it. Anyone else out there wondering whether to get into it - my advice so far - and I've only been trading since the 7th April - is don't. It's sold as a very automatic and safe system, and my experience is that it's not.
I will post again if I get help from them and manage to recoup some of my disastrous losses. But if the markets were very unstable, then bearing in mind they are selling to people who have never dealt in Forex before, they should have sent us an email or something to say stop trading until things settle down.
traderlight posted: I'm sorry that your FFR3 got stopped out. The questions now are: What now? Are you going to continue using the robot on your other real account (FFR1)? Do you believe that you will find the perfect settings for the robot? Maybe try other robots? Will you ever consider manual trading? Regards.
Yes, I will be continuing to use it. I have looked again at my settings and reduced the maximum length of the strings to around 7 and 8 on my charts, which will protect me from similar repeats of what happened with the AUD/USD chart (which hit a record 1.10 today)
I am not sure if there is ever a perfect setting, but I have done some work reviewing the impact on equity levels of different string lengths measured against different lot sizes, and it is possible to eliminate any such losses by reducing the string sizes...this may well be through sacrificing some of the higher profits, but clearly I am keen on having no repeats of this recent loss!
No, I will not consider manual trading...I was hoping the robot would bring in passive income...i really don't have the time or interest in full time manual trading. Having now adjusted the settings to prevent exposure to bigger strings, I am really hoping this will now start to built some profits to repay both my loss and my original investment (plus the FFR fees).
Autopilot...sorry that you have also lost money on FFR. I guess that there is a high chance of anyone who had deals in the AUD/USD chart losing money recently...the chart gained something like 650 pips during April, and if your deals were traded at just the wrong times, then the value of those open deals would test all bar the largest of fund balances.
I am giving it another go...am now transferring some money from my Green account into Red and trying again...I am not adding any new money into the robot though...just splitting out my remaining cash over the two accounts. If you keep the Max String settings low then that will protect your capital sums so you don't lose any more cash.
Did you attend the Family Day in April?
I have now developed a spreadsheet that I can use to model the risk of different string lengths and lot sizes so I have a better understanding of how big the strings need to be to safeguard my capital (I wish I had done that before going live with Gill's default settings of 10 deals...but at least I feel more in control of the robot now). I am happy to share the spreadsheet if it is of interest. If so, drop me a Message.
Hi David - I did attend the family day in April, and that was the day I started trading, having pushed some money into the account which arrived that day. Gill makes it sound so easy and automatic, and as I started trading it did all seem to be going so well - until the dollar dropped and I lost about 40% of my original.
I would be very keen to look at your spreadsheet and if I can dream up anything hopeful I will return the favour.
The way I see it is that to limit the risk you have to limit lot sizes (less profit) limit the strings (ditto) and limit the drawdown (more likely to hit it). Based on current experience it clearly is possible to make a good profit on a daily basis, but then lose it all again when the market changes. I think I will try and trade for another month (with very low exposure!) and if it does not show a profit I will have to bale out.
Thanks traderlight - I wish I had read your comments before I got involved.
davidjellis posted: If you keep the Max String settings low then that will protect your capital sums so you don't lose any more cash.
I'm sorry, I don't think this protects your capital. I think it will still lose your money, only at a bit slower rate. Still true if you use smaller lot sizes.
And I think April was a usual month in forex. How did Gill do last month herself? Or does she not trade her own robot? Happy new month!
To explain my comments - My loss last week was caused by a string of 10 deals on AUD/USD which, when first occurred, only accounted for about 20% of my equity...but as the chart continued to rise the value of those 10 deals rose until they were worth 100% of my equity and the account was cleared out.
Now, if I had limited the number of strings to say 7, the value of those open trades would be a lot lower (as each deal doubles the previous one), and my equity would have had enough margin to survive until the chart reached 1.21 (which realistically is unlikely to happen) so unless the chart never comes down again that would offer a lot of protection to my capital. Does that explain it?
Gill is surviving on her charts (which are published on here - user ffrtrader) - her Amber chart is down to 74% equity and her Red account down to 92% but she is both using her system and trading successfully.
davidjellis posted: Now, if I had limited the number of strings to say 7, the value of those open trades would be a lot lower (as each deal doubles the previous one), and my equity would have had enough margin to survive until the chart reached 1.21 (which realistically is unlikely to happen) so unless the chart never comes down again that would offer a lot of protection to my capital. Does that explain it?
1.21 is pretty far, fair enough. I'm a newbie myself, so I don't know if we can reach that level in approximately a straight line without coming down low enough to save martingale trades. I guess martingale systems can work. But when it does not work, it loses a lot.
traderlight posted: 1.21 is pretty far, fair enough. I'm a newbie myself, so I don't know if we can reach that level in approximately a straight line without coming down low enough to save martingale trades. I guess martingale systems can work. But when it does not work, it loses a lot.
I guess the nature of Forex trading is that you cannot predict easily (if at all) what the charts are going to do...AUD/USD has been in a long-term climb, but generally over that climb there has been sufficient movement in both directions for Martingales to work effectively. I totally understand and accept that Forex trading is risky...it is classed as Spread Betting by the UK Tax and Excise body, so that does tell you something!
You are correct in that when Martingale-based strategies fail they tend to fail big style. The advantage that FFR has over most Martingale robots is that it has a lot of different mechanisms to balance the risk and/or control your losses in a way that a pure Martingale robot doesn't. The difficult bit is understanding how best to set those controls. For example, the latest upgrade - allowing you to set the maximum number of strings the robot trades - is a significant enhancement in the controls the user has.
I think Autopilot has made a valid point that Gill has sold the FFR system as being a lot easier than it actually is. All the sales pitch does make it sound so easy, and of course, many of us have found out the hard way that whilst operating the FFR system is easy, understanding how to set the controls to match your own personal risk appetite and fund levels is something much more complex.
I am confident that there are ways of using the FFR system that will steadily make profits without ever hitting drawdown, and having now lost twice I am favouring a safer strategy using smaller string sizes, even if it means the profits will be lower.
Reviewing the myfxbook blog (https://blog.myfxbook.com/) you will see that the results for the latest competition winners showed that only 7% of traders in that competition made profits, 36% broke even, and 57% made losses. In total 45% of traders had their margins called. So, it is clear that Forex isn't as easy as many traders make it out to be, and although not perfect, the FFRS system does give novice traders a high degree of control over reducing the risk of losses. Sure, Gill has sold it in a way that over-simplifies Forex, but I am sure there are many worse options out there!
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