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Honest truth about forex.....

Jason Rogers (jasonrogers)
Nov 23 2016 at 07:27
272 posts
Charles_F posted:
Parmenides posted:
Charles_F posted:
Parmenides posted:
The honest truth is that 95% of us don't make money. We just keep deluding ourselves that we make money (while we kept our losses secret) and keep refueling our account.


You mean for living, over the long term or at all?


I meant for most of us, we either quit and take up new hobby or we keep refueling the account for another go at it.
We follow simple ideas we found in a book read by countless others and decide to trade it. We might do some backtesting on such idea while ignoring that real trading is more than just about picking numbers on where to buy/sell.There is requote, low liquidity or even black swan events.

If the market efficient theory is true( got massive evidence that the market is at least weakly efficient). It means looking for profit's opportunities is very difficult. And looking for opportunities isnt even the trading part yet.


Got your point. When it comes to the profit opportunities, I think they will always be there for us to take them. But it depends on your perspective tot he markets. FX is close to the ideal competition model in my opinion.


You make a great point, @Charles_F

While trading is not for everyone, the opportunities do exist. FXCM's guide on the traits of successful traders explains how the minority who make money overall tend apply certain best practices which the majority ignore either due to lack of knowledge or discipline.

For example, open nearly any book on trading and the advice is the same: Cut your losses early and let your profits run. When your trade goes against you, close it out—better to take a small loss early than a big loss later. But how many traders actually put this into practice?

Historically, this simple adage has been difficult to for most people. Take the EUR/USD. Our data show EUR/USD trades closed out at a profit 61% of the time. But the average losing trade was worth 83 pips while the average winner was only 48 pips. Traders lost 70% more on their losing trades than they won on winning trades. Remember that past performance is no indication of future results.

Why the imbalance? Human behavior toward winning and losing can explain. People don't like accepting a loss, so most will hold onto a losing trade for longer than they should. Conversely, they don't let their winners for long enough, because they want to satisfaction of booking even a profit, and fear it will turn into a loss if they hold out for more.

A key trait that sets the profitable minority apart from the losing majority is that profitable traders tend to have winning trades that are at least as big as their losing trades in terms of pips. Of the traders who followed this rule, 53% turned a profit; of those who didn't, only 17% turned
a profit. Traders who adhered to this rule were three times more likely to turn a profit—a substantial difference.

Nina (NEEnah)
Nov 23 2016 at 08:32
71 posts
I think the key to success in trading is the ability to identify and follow the trends with whatever tools and instruments.
@jasonrogers What you say about psychology is true and it has been extensively discussed all around the web 😄 It's the human nature that stops most of the people to follow these basic rules and ignore the risks. Unfortunately, many brokers make very good profits out of this.

Ben (ben08in)
Nov 23 2016 at 13:24
47 posts
jasonrogers posted:
c3po posted:
For real. FXCM is 'regulated' but they will wait right before a sell off and as soon as everyone gets ther stoplosses set, FXCM jumps their Ask price up 10x like from 3 pips to 30 pips and shreds everyone's stops....and THEN they drop the Ask price again and let all the algos replace their sell orders then they JUMP the Ask line up again 10x and pop all those orders... THEN they drop Ask back to 3 pips and let algos replace orders again, then Jump up again.... rinse repeat...

you can watch thier Ask line jump from 3 pips to 30 about 10 or 15 times until all accounts blown and/or until the sell off proceeds. Total scam cheating bastards. OH BUT THEY'RE REGULATED. by who? a bunch of crooked friends?


CliveCampbell posted:
I think this is a classic example of stop hunting.


@c3po and @CliveCampbell, FXCM does not hunt stops.

For Standard accounts (5k minimum opening balance) and Active Trader accounts (25k minimum), we use No Dealing Desk (NDD) forex execution. That means each client order is offset one-for-one with the best prices from competing liquidity providers. Therefore, we don't profit from client losses or lose from client profits on the NDD model, and have no reason hunt stops.



Furthermore, it's worth noting that we use the same base price for DD execution on Mini accounts (before adding the spread markup) as the base price we use for our NDD execution (before adding the commission). That's a key reason you can have confidence trading with FXCM regardless of the account type you choose.

FXCM and its affiliates are regulated on 5 continents, so it's important to keep in mind that in compliance with NFA rules regarding price slippage and price re-quoting that were finalized in 2012, FXCM US provides daily trade reports to the NFA which monitors and supervises FXCM US's activity including information on the price where all client orders are filled and the corresponding price where those orders are offset with our liquidity providers.



All of FXCM's global trading entities including FXCM UK and FXCM Australia execute client rolling spot forex transactions as a riskless principal with FXCM US, so the same execution standards are applied for all of our clients worldwide. There are no re-quotes at FXCM, and all our clients around the world can benefit from positive slippage whenever it's available. The latest execution stats from January 2015 through March 2016 showed the following:

* 78.71% of all orders had NO SLIPPAGE.
* 12.77% of all orders received positive slippage.
* 8.52% of all orders received negative slippage.
* 50.2% of all limit and limit entry orders received positive slippage.
* 39.9% of all stop and stop entry orders received negative slippage.

This includes data from both the DD execution we provide to Mini accounts and the NDD execution we provide to Standard and Active Trader accounts. It is FXCM's goal to be an industry leader in providing you with transparency regarding our execution which is why we provide these details on our website: https://www.fxcm.com/uk/why-fxcm/execution/?CMP=SFS-70160000000MusRAAS


It's good that you provide clarity on the subject. Based on the facts you mentioned, you got me interested in learning more about the average slippage for that period and if you have more recent data to share with us. Still, I am wondering why FXCM is using the DD for smaller accounts? When it comes to the stop hunting, the information you wrote does not actually prove that FXCM is not doing it for accounts less than 5k. c3po mentioned that that FXCM is waiting for the stops to get set so this means FXCM can see the stop loss levels of the traders if I understood correctly. Is FXCM trading against the traders with accounts smaller than 5k?
It could be good if c3po provides some illustration of his statement so we can all see the case 😄

Trade fast, learn fast, never regret!
c3po
Nov 23 2016 at 19:27
51 posts
jasonrogers posted:
c3po posted:
For real. FXCM is 'regulated' but they will wait right before a sell off and as soon as everyone gets ther stoplosses set, FXCM jumps their Ask price up 10x like from 3 pips to 30 pips and shreds everyone's stops....and THEN they drop the Ask price again and let all the algos replace their sell orders then they JUMP the Ask line up again 10x and pop all those orders... THEN they drop Ask back to 3 pips and let algos replace orders again, then Jump up again.... rinse repeat...

you can watch thier Ask line jump from 3 pips to 30 about 10 or 15 times until all accounts blown and/or until the sell off proceeds. Total scam cheating bastards. OH BUT THEY'RE REGULATED. by who? a bunch of crooked friends?


CliveCampbell posted:
I think this is a classic example of stop hunting.


@c3po and @CliveCampbell, FXCM does not hunt stops.




I didn't say FXCM hunts stops. i said THEY CHEAT by jumping their Ask line up a factor of 10 immediately before a selloff.

Furthermore the USA government regulators channel customers to FXCM based on the fact that they are USA regulated and naive USA clients think thats a good thing, whereas in fact, the over-restrictive rules are not conducive to increasing acct balance for tiny accounts; the govt agents are no doubt in collusion with this FXCM cheating scam and enforce it. I hope Trump will end yalls scam.

if you have an account big enough to handle their manipulation of the Ask price, then you can succeed shorting, that is if you ALREADY HAVE ENOUGH MONEY to have big giant stop losses. people in poverty working to scalp to increase a tiny account (and going short as this specific complaint is specific to shorting) with tight managment (tight stoplosses) are lunch for FXCM as hedging is prohibited to US clients so we cant hedge the loss thanks to USA law makers. we have to take the loss.

i guess if you never short and only go long so you dont get raped by the Ask line jumping up then no problem. This though is only one of the issues with FXCM. they are up to other stuff too that make them very unattractive to the small investor.

Clive (CliveCampbell)
Nov 24 2016 at 09:42
47 posts
c3po posted:
I didn't say FXCM hunts stops. i said THEY CHEAT by jumping their Ask line up a factor of 10 immediately before a selloff.

Furthermore the USA government regulators channel customers to FXCM based on the fact that they are USA regulated and naive USA clients think thats a good thing, whereas in fact, the over-restrictive rules are not conducive to increasing acct balance for tiny accounts; the govt agents are no doubt in collusion with this FXCM cheating scam and enforce it. I hope Trump will end yalls scam.

if you have an account big enough to handle their manipulation of the Ask price, then you can succeed shorting, that is if you ALREADY HAVE ENOUGH MONEY to have big giant stop losses. people in poverty working to scalp to increase a tiny account (and going short as this specific complaint is specific to shorting) with tight managment (tight stoplosses) are lunch for FXCM as hedging is prohibited to US clients so we cant hedge the loss thanks to USA law makers. we have to take the loss.

i guess if you never short and only go long so you dont get raped by the Ask line jumping up then no problem. This though is only one of the issues with FXCM. they are up to other stuff too that make them very unattractive to the small investor.


Well, to my understanding what you are saying is pure stop hunting. And stop hunting applies to both long and short positions as stop losses can be set to both. I understand that you are referring to shorting particularly, though. What you say makes sense only if the broker trades against the client and is able to see where the client sets its stop losses. I read the questions posted by Ben and it would be useful to all of us to get the answers.
Once again - thank you for raising up this issue.

vontogr (togr)
Nov 24 2016 at 09:57
4862 posts
CliveCampbell posted:
c3po posted:
I didn't say FXCM hunts stops. i said THEY CHEAT by jumping their Ask line up a factor of 10 immediately before a selloff.

Furthermore the USA government regulators channel customers to FXCM based on the fact that they are USA regulated and naive USA clients think thats a good thing, whereas in fact, the over-restrictive rules are not conducive to increasing acct balance for tiny accounts; the govt agents are no doubt in collusion with this FXCM cheating scam and enforce it. I hope Trump will end yalls scam.

if you have an account big enough to handle their manipulation of the Ask price, then you can succeed shorting, that is if you ALREADY HAVE ENOUGH MONEY to have big giant stop losses. people in poverty working to scalp to increase a tiny account (and going short as this specific complaint is specific to shorting) with tight managment (tight stoplosses) are lunch for FXCM as hedging is prohibited to US clients so we cant hedge the loss thanks to USA law makers. we have to take the loss.

i guess if you never short and only go long so you dont get raped by the Ask line jumping up then no problem. This though is only one of the issues with FXCM. they are up to other stuff too that make them very unattractive to the small investor.


Well, to my understanding what you are saying is pure stop hunting. And stop hunting applies to both long and short positions as stop losses can be set to both. I understand that you are referring to shorting particularly, though. What you say makes sense only if the broker trades against the client and is able to see where the client sets its stop losses. I read the questions posted by Ben and it would be useful to all of us to get the answers.
Once again - thank you for raising up this issue.


Guys,

it may be perhaps better to use hidden stop loss instead accusing broker of such practice as it is very difficult to prove it.

c3po
Nov 24 2016 at 10:37
51 posts


Well, to my understanding what you are saying is pure stop hunting. And stop hunting applies to both long and short positions as stop losses can be set to both. I understand that you are referring to shorting particularly, though. What you say makes sense only if the broker trades against the client and is able to see where the client sets its stop losses. I read the questions posted by Ben and it would be useful to all of us to get the answers.
Once again - thank you for raising up this issue.

Guys,

it may be perhaps better to use hidden stop loss instead accusing broker of such practice as it is very difficult to prove it.

No, you are missing the whole point.

A hidden stop will NOT prevent FXCM from manipulating their ask price up a factor of TEN right before a selloff.


thats like me having a loaf of bread on the shelf all week priced at $3 (relative to a 3 pip spread all day for example every day in middle of week) then just as the cashier rings it up, by the time you walked from the bread isle to the cashier the price increased to $30! BUT THERES NO RETURNS AND ITS ALREADY charged to your card. you cant do anything a bout it except go find a more honest broker, which is real easy to do in the case of FXCM.

its simply manipulation of the customer to make money and its fraud and they are colluding with somebody in the US government to regulate this sort of obscene behavior. I hope Trump catches wind and puts them in their place.

c3po
Nov 24 2016 at 10:45
51 posts
CliveCampbell posted:
c3po posted:
I didn't say FXCM hunts stops. i said THEY CHEAT by jumping their Ask line up a factor of 10 immediately before a selloff.

Furthermore the USA government regulators channel customers to FXCM based on the fact that they are USA regulated and naive USA clients think thats a good thing, whereas in fact, the over-restrictive rules are not conducive to increasing acct balance for tiny accounts; the govt agents are no doubt in collusion with this FXCM cheating scam and enforce it. I hope Trump will end yalls scam.

if you have an account big enough to handle their manipulation of the Ask price, then you can succeed shorting, that is if you ALREADY HAVE ENOUGH MONEY to have big giant stop losses. people in poverty working to scalp to increase a tiny account (and going short as this specific complaint is specific to shorting) with tight managment (tight stoplosses) are lunch for FXCM as hedging is prohibited to US clients so we cant hedge the loss thanks to USA law makers. we have to take the loss.

i guess if you never short and only go long so you dont get raped by the Ask line jumping up then no problem. This though is only one of the issues with FXCM. they are up to other stuff too that make them very unattractive to the small investor.


Well, to my understanding what you are saying is pure stop hunting. And stop hunting applies to both long and short positions as stop losses can be set to both. I understand that you are referring to shorting particularly, though. What you say makes sense only if the broker trades against the client and is able to see where the client sets its stop losses. I read the questions posted by Ben and it would be useful to all of us to get the answers.
Once again - thank you for raising up this issue.


you also miss the point. Let me ask you this, if you open a buy, do they jump the ask price up a factor of 10 between the time you order and the time your order is filled? No they dont, why? because its too obvious.

Whereas, during a sell, often people dont even have the ask price showing, as who would expect spread to jump from 3 pips to 30 pips for about 20 times immediately before a selloff?

Its a very quick jump of Ask price up from 3 to 30 pips to pop everyones sell stoplosses. How is that relatable to going Long--once you put in your order you can forget spread, you already paid it. but for Sells, you dont pay the spread until you close the trade. and you close it at the Ask price right? if the broker jumps their ask price up a factor of 10 or 20 to hit your stoploss, then how is relative to going long? its not, not at all.

Ill bet if you balanced their book, FXCM gets 100% of their revenue from this scamming small and new investors short positions.
 

Clive (CliveCampbell)
Nov 24 2016 at 11:05
47 posts
togr posted:
Guys,
it may be perhaps better to use hidden stop loss instead accusing broker of such practice as it is very difficult to prove it.


Interesting point, thanks for sharing!

c3po
Nov 24 2016 at 11:09
51 posts
CliveCampbell posted:
togr posted:
Guys,
it may be perhaps better to use hidden stop loss instead accusing broker of such practice as it is very difficult to prove it.


Interesting point, thanks for sharing!


you work for FXCM dont you. You are trying to bury my post. The above post is totally irrelevant and NON interesting compared to what im saying

...... ok ill put it in my signature and reply to everything you post.



'I would bet if you balanced their book, FXCM gets 100% of their revenue from this scamming small and new investors short positions by unfair manipulation of their Ask price by a factor of x10 just before a selloff to close the orders and pocket the money.'

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