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Monte Carlo based EA

gatornuke
Jul 30 2011 at 13:56
32 posts

TheCyclist posted:
    Not so sure, weather last six months been so extreme and everyone is being affected. With the tsunami pointing a big finger at nuclear as dangerous, and with the weather doing what it's doing, it seems people are suddenly going to realise climate change is here to stay and it's going to affect everyone, and nuclear isn't the answer.


Actually, the tsunami exposed a vulnerability in a 40 year old BWR design, one that the new plant designs do not have. We now use passive cooling in the event of a complete loss of offsite power, so you wouldn't see what happened in Japan.

It's also amazing how you place so much emphasis on the nuclear disaster. How many people died from Fukushima, and how many died from the earthquake and tsunami? It's easy to loose perspective when scary words like 'nuclear' get thrown out there, but be my guest, cover the whole planet in wind mills and solar panels, good luck paying for electricity and finding a place to live.

PipGnostic
TheCyclist
Jul 31 2011 at 02:56
724 posts
Subsea. Doesn't have to impact land at all.

I work in the oil industry. Had to install a rig a few years ago, thing was like a bloody play-station. Just plugged it in, took 2 weeks. We can easily do the same with a tidal farm. Just plonk em down and plug em in. Not that much of a technical challenge and cost be on par if not cheaper with building a giant nuclear reactor. And scalability. Can easily reduce or increase capacity as required.

South Africa so far spent Zar 22 billion on the new pebble beds and not a single pebble was put down. That's one hell of a lot of generator units they could have put down.

Look I think nuclear is better than anything else we have at the moment. Oil is just as dangerous as the GOM accident highlighted. Whether mass hysteria or not, people don't want nuclear any-more. The cost of an accident is to high. And clearly accidents happen. Oil the same.

We have alternatives and should get behind them. Take a few more accidents, but the time will come where the change comes from bottom up. And we're almost at that point, I believe anyway....

I like the internal combustion engine. Big smelly loud thumping Harley's and ground churning off road machines are my thing, but I think we'll all be on some green electric whiny sounding modes of transport in the not so distant future.

Alanfx1
Jul 31 2011 at 22:21
104 posts

gatornuke posted:
  
I welcome any comments or questions.


Hi gatornuke.

I believe that this software will help you with your EA.

https://www.adaptrade.com/Builder/index.htm

They offer a free trial.

Good job.

Tradingboy

I Trade You Profit. Forex is suitable for smart and patient people...
zzzero
Aug 01 2011 at 01:44
1367 posts
i am sitting here in a coffee shop, some chica has a pdf opened up with a title of:

monte carlo study of correlated continuum.

2 weird/.

position in progess.

balance: 3207
margin used: 1090
profit: -455
target: yes.





zzzero
Aug 01 2011 at 01:57
1367 posts
TheCyclist posted: I work in the oil industry.


do you trade?

just curious..

z/.

gatornuke
Aug 01 2011 at 15:51
32 posts

Alanfx1 posted:
    
gatornuke posted:
  
I welcome any comments or questions.


Hi gatornuke.

I believe that this software will help you with your EA.

https://www.adaptrade.com/Builder/index.htm

They offer a free trial.

Good job.

Tradingboy



Thanks, but I don't see how that could help. I'm using MT4, not trade station, and my EA is fully coded, so it's a little late for a GUI code generator. Besides, I doubt I'd be able to code a monte carlo routine in a canned code generator program, and if so, it's probably be more difficult and less efficient than using the scripting language itself.

In addition, it seems like that software takes a history and optimizes an indicator-triggered trading routine over that given history. Those approaches tend to perform quite poorly during forward/live testing.

Alanfx1
Aug 02 2011 at 01:39
104 posts
Hi gatornuke,
You EA makes it's own Monte Carlo on the fly, is that?

I Trade You Profit. Forex is suitable for smart and patient people...
gatornuke
Aug 02 2011 at 02:18
32 posts
It makes a Monte Carlo simulation on every 1 minute bar, simulates the next two hours of trading, and if the probability of a move in any given direction is sufficiently high, it enters a trade.

zzzero
Aug 02 2011 at 02:22
1367 posts
gatornuke posted:
Thanks, but I'm not really a math guru. I just have a master's in nuclear engineering, which lends itself well to this approach. I just hope it pays off.


i believe you.

there is no need to convince me that you are not a math guru.

not with a demo account that has seen a maximum upside of 4% and is now sitting at -3%, lol.

but, srsly, how did you manage to acquire a master's degree in nuclear engineering, yet you do not feel confident enough to think of yourself as a math guru, especially in this crowd?

exactly what type of person would you consider to be a math guru?

if it isnt some guy with a master's in nuclear engineering, i do not know who it would be...

btw, monte carlo stuff looks and sounds good on paper, it just does not work on the charts.

oh yeah, watch the video.. that way, at least maybe you will have something to work on that might work..

happy demo trading,

zero/.



zzzero
Aug 02 2011 at 02:55
1367 posts
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