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FXCharger (by fxcharger)

Gain: +1912.72%
Drawdown: 57.29%
Pips: 1088.9
Trades: 564
Won:
Lost:
Type: Real
Leverage: -
Trading: Automated
Profits (JapaneseGroupFx)
Mar 07 2020 at 06:37
77 posts
Fxswdn posted:
Coronvirus came with a lot of opportunities for the trend following systems and all the systems based on direction
And has came with alot of pain to the systems which based on corrections and retresments.


Corona virus really made us huge profits I must admit.

MicF
Mar 08 2020 at 11:36
95 posts
Now it happened, that the stop loss hit a second time shortly after a first one.
I can recall the discussion, that it 'statistically' can't happen and hence you could increase the risk to 100% after a hit to catch up the loss.

Unlikely doesn't equal impossible.

BTW the statement is mathematically wrong anyway.

frickshow
Mar 12 2020 at 14:35
19 posts
MicF posted:
Now it happened, that the stop loss hit a second time shortly after a first one.
I can recall the discussion, that it 'statistically' can't happen and hence you could increase the risk to 100% after a hit to catch up the loss.

Unlikely doesn't equal impossible.

BTW the statement is mathematically wrong anyway.


math is not really my strong side - can you explain it to me?

MicF
Mar 12 2020 at 15:14
95 posts
It is called stochastically independent i. e. if you roll a dice your chances to get a 6 is 1/6 at the first try and will be 1/6 at any further tries.
So even if you rolled the dice 100 times and didn't get any 6, the chances you would get a 6 in the 101st try are still 1/6.

fxcharger
Mar 12 2020 at 15:25
73 posts
MicF posted:
Now it happened, that the stop loss hit a second time shortly after a first one.
I can recall the discussion, that it 'statistically' can't happen and hence you could increase the risk to 100% after a hit to catch up the loss.

Unlikely doesn't equal impossible.

BTW the statement is mathematically wrong anyway.


Hello MicF,
Yes, double loss is very sad for us and for our clients. But anyway, we never told that it's impossible, do not change the meaning of our words, please. And about your words 'BTW the statement is mathematically wrong anyway. ' - I would like to draw your attention to the fact that this is not about mathematics at all, but about probability theory. This is a big difference 😄

Here is my old post about it:
'If you do not take into account all the factors, then you are right. But in our situation, you need to take into account history. A simple example: What is the chance of eagle side of the coin, when you toss it? It's easy, the chance of each side is 50/50%. If we toss coin 100 times, approximately we will get 50 eagles and 50 tails. But if will be the situation, that we toss the coin 50 times, and get the eagle side only 10 times and 40 times of another side of the coin. For the next 50 times of tosses, the chance will be the same 50/50? Or we understand that now probability theory will 'try' to balance the scales of probability and next 50 times of tosses, will have approximately 40 eagles and 10 another side of the coin.

This is a primitive (rough) example, but it shows approximately what I mean. There are many factors that make an effect on the probability. We can't get guaranty from probability, but we can have it on our side and use it.'


As I told previously (old post) in the last sentence, we can't get guaranty from probability theory (unlike math). We just try to get the probability on our side and made some profit from it. Unfortunately, the situation at the market very and very dangerous, there are many not typical movements at the market - it caused the second stoploss. That is why we stopped trading at the moment and will restart it a little bit later when the situation will stabilize.


MicF
Mar 12 2020 at 16:08
95 posts
You are right and I am wrong ;-)

3165
Mar 12 2020 at 23:11
23 posts
You are all focusing in the wrong reason that caused this loss.
My set of params for the same strategy is in profit. All the way.
Look at screenshot for the last few months.




Attachments:


MicF
Mar 13 2020 at 06:47
95 posts
More description would be nice :-)

DojiSan (TheForexGuru)
Mar 19 2020 at 18:37
6 posts
This is a basic strategy of semi martingale. Basically open 2 initial positions 0.01 lots each, long and short with a take profit of 100 pips. Wait for one to trigger and martingale the losing position by adding incremental lots once a day at the end of the day. Do until 1% of equity is hit and close all the losing positions. The key questions are how many to positions to add and at what lot increments per position to add? One can examine by looking at the trade history.

"Trade to trade well, not to make money, when you trade well, money will come!"
3165
Mar 20 2020 at 14:56
23 posts
The key questions are NOT what you think.
The most important conditions do not apply in this strategy, unfortunately.
It's all about timing of when do you open another martingale position and when you close all positions at once.
Hint: '1% of equity is hit' is not the right target to close all positions.

Look at this:
https://www.myfxbook.com/community/trading-systems/fxcharger/1247157,36#postRow350614
No losses in the outcome in this critic period.

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