The daily gold (XAUUSD) chart is in another triangular pattern. So now it is a matter of waiting to see which line will be broken. Given the money printing underway it could be a matter of having a small pickup, then move down to lower trend-line and then a more solid move back up to take out previous highs. See blue line below.
If there is a break of the lower trend-line then we could see a move back to the 1560 territory.
It was also interesting to see the comparison between XAUUSD and XAUEUR yesterday. There is obvious bullish sentiment on USD, however it later evened out again.
We have seen a continued sideways movement on gold over the last week with the price coming back to the 1700 mark over and over.
What is odd however is the economic data coming out of the US and the impact on the price of gold. Last week we had ADP Employment going from -27K to -20236K and on Friday had the popular NFP reading from -701K to -20500K with the glimmer of hope being the average hourly earning rate increasing. However, and please note that I am not an economist (and I also believe that economists have no idea what is going on!), this just does not make sense that gold is not stronger.
The NFP yesterday (Fri) we saw the price of gold weaken. Either there is some major manipulation going on or I am clearly missing something. Yesterday gold dropped against both USD and EUR, so it is not USD specific.
Am patiently waiting for trade signals to appear and you can see we are in the middle of the wedge on the daily chart. Still there is going to be a future break of this wedge either to to the upside or downside.
Yesterday we finally saw the breakout on the daily chart and it was a strong move upwards.
What normally happens now is that the price comes back to re-test the back of the upper trend-line, which is around the 1710 to 1750 territory before a stronger move upwards. Will wait and see...
Unfortunately Gold Trader did not pick this move as the over-sold condition was not met and trades are not actioned during that time frame (due to common volatility). Gold Trader tends to pick up the range-bound long trades and not the big moves (up or down).
There was quite a bull-trap on XAUUSD yesterday and massive sell-off due to the strengthening USD (on worse jobless figures!). Normally on gold you get those sorts of moves as bear-traps, so perhaps the bias is changing.
The gold bull in me is looking for a move down to the $1710 region and then bounce off the lower trend-line upwards. However a decent break of the lower trend-line could be on the cards and in that case will reassess.
It is definitely a gold bull market when you look at the daily chart and have seen some crazy moves over the last few months. The longer term traders out there that bought XAUUSD on that dip down to $1450 would be sleeping well at night, same with those that bought Bitcoin when it crashed to $4000!
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