To use chat, please login.
Back to contacts

HIT MULTI PAIRS (By hannahis365 )

The user has deleted this system.

HIT MULTI PAIRS Discussion

profix
Jul 30 2017 at 09:26
131 posts
Please, don't be naïve. Not a single mt4 broker will let you go away with such insane profits.

vocasla
Jul 30 2017 at 09:52
35 posts
What's the chance the results are due to start date bias? I.e. start date turned out to be lucky; if started at a different date, performance could have been worse.

Can you show results of the backtest? Are your EAs for sale?

Cool cheers for sharing!

Trade systematically. Trade algorithmically.
hannahis365 (hannahis365)
Jul 30 2017 at 14:45
14 posts
Hi Profix, yeah any scam borker will sabotage this system. Hence, got to choose brokers wisely. You mean to say there isn't a single honest brokage firm? Either way, if you are with a scam broker, even if you have a winning system, you still lose. So the moral of the story is...start looking for credible ones even before you trade.

And if what you said is true, then we all should quit forex cos either way we are all going to lose. We are then really wasting our time here.

Thanks Profix, I know you mean well. Make money, but don't make too much :)

Look for a broker that is not a money maker so that it doesn't matter how much I'm winning. In fact a real honest broker would love to have such portfolio cos it generate lots of volume and commission for them.



Hi Vocasia, I agree that when you start this portfolio will have the impact on initial results.

Most systems are either breakout or ranging system.

So if I started out this system on a prolong ranging period. It would have affected the initial results dramatically (likewise, which systems don't rely on trends).

However, in the long run, this portfolio should be able to weather through (I certainly hope so...as long as ranging period don't last too unusually long.)

Sorry this EAs aren't for sale, so if I don't even want to sell, do you think I'll give it away for free :) I'm not eager to make people happy, that's not my aim. I don't believe in rewarding laziness. If people can't put the time and energy to learn how to trade. They shouldn't be trading at all.

I don't believe in this kind of sharing. It breeds greed and contempt. And it is unfair to me cos I spent years to 'perfect' my systems to get such insane results (hopefully it last, time will tell). I don't believe such results happened by chance cos then I'll be too many times lucky considering that it traded 1643 times in 5 days. It's too many time to be so lucky. Plus, my trade win is 64% so most of the time, this portfolio make more correct trades than wrong ones. And if it loses, it lose small but win big. These are definitely not the work of some random lucky streaks.

Anyway, it's still too early to tell. But one thing I do know that this system's weakness is in ranging so I'll be developing the next stage EA that will improve it's performance further by not taking too many random trades during ranging and that will cut down the loss.

In forex you 'make' money both ways, 1) make money by taking in profits and 2) by not losing them back again, keep your profit. In this way, our accounts can grow faster. Why most people don't make money in forex, it's not because they aren't winning. It's because they can't stop losing. A good system not only bring in the profit, it also plug the holes.


Sound Trading Theory = Good Profit
hannahis365 (hannahis365)
Jul 30 2017 at 15:33
14 posts
Lastly Vocasia,

If this portfolio continues to do so well, how much do you think I should price this system?

It make 2.5 times the capital.

1st week $5k, end of the week made $12,500 profit.

End of the month make $50,000

Begin 2nd month with $55k ($5k + $50k previous profit),

End of the 2nd month made 2.5 x more = $135,500

Begin 3rd month with $1.925k




And it goes on and on...now tell me how much would you price this System?

Of cos, all the above calculation is hyper hypothetical....but I certainly hope it will come true to me. Wish me best of luck :)


Let's hope the subsequent weeks won't crush my dream and if it does, I'm not lost (cos my dreams have been crashed so many times that I have learn to make better and better system over the time till I get such results...so all is not lost especially when you know why you fail cos you will then know how to avoid those failures better in the future, the worst part in life is, not to know why we fail).


Sound Trading Theory = Good Profit
vocasla
Jul 31 2017 at 11:41
35 posts
hannahis365 posted:
Lastly Vocasia,

If this portfolio continues to do so well, how much do you think I should price this system?



Good exercise question.



Let's judge the value of an algorithmic trading system based on some basic performance metrics:
1) Absolute gain divided by drawdown (risk-adjusted growth)
2) Duration of live forward-test (in months)
3) Pairs in profit / total currency pairs (measure of successful diversification)

(being very liberal and ignoring things like max. stagnation period / stability index / sharpe ratio etc.)



Next, let's look at the price of other decent EAs on the market.

Let's take SFE. It sells for up to $2000. Some sell upwards $4000 and beyond. It is also a breakout system, and well diversified via lots of currency pairs (another important variable to consider). It appears to be a very robust system. Again being very generous here.

1) Abs.gain/dd = 193.1/17.87 = 10.81
2) Live duration = 23 months
3) Profit pairs/total pairs = 13/15 = 0.87

Assigning a value factor to make it a fair valuation:
= $2000 / (10.81*23*0.87)
= 9.25 (the value factor)

Double checking:
= 9.25 * 10.81 * 23 * 0.87
= ~$2000



So to price your EA:
1) 302.76/42.07 = 7.2
2) 0.25 (since it's only been 8 days or ~quarter of a month)
3) 6/7 = 0.86

= 9.25 * 7.2 * 0.25 * 0.86
= ~$14.32



That's also not considering that what is currently shown is a demo forward-test only (or the fact that there's no backtests for additional assessment).

Of course the duration variable could be argued as irrelevant in this case, but I thought it's worthwhile to add just to account for the potential of survivorship bias (edit: it might have been better if I had counted only the months in profit).

In time your EA could be 'worth' more.

The output looks ridiculous I know. I might personally have priced it higher without such calculations, just for the record (and just to make the point that I'm not having some kind of negative bias against what you made or anything).

Trade systematically. Trade algorithmically.
hannahis365 (hannahis365)
Jul 31 2017 at 15:31
14 posts
Hi Voasia,

Very interesting concept.

No worries Voasia, nothing personal, thanks for taking your time to demonstrate your model of calculation.

I always enjoy a good discussion and not take things personally.

Furthermore, this system is too new to be priced correctly. Time will tell and I do need time to evaluation this system properly before trading it live with my real money.


Sound Trading Theory = Good Profit
hannahis365 (hannahis365)
Aug 02 2017 at 06:32
14 posts
As mentioned this system weakness is in ranging and from what I observed yesterday, I'll be adding some filters to the EA algo rules to cut down wrong entries during this period.

I'll set up another portfolio once I've improved on the algo formula. Meanwhile I'll use this portfolio for comparison.

Meanwhile, I've already added a 'profit' filter to send out only profitable trades to this portfolio as a measure to reduce potential wrong entries, i.e. losses.

So stay tune with an improved version of this portfolio.

Sound Trading Theory = Good Profit
Please login to comment .