If this portfolio continues to do so well, how much do you think I should price this system?
Good exercise question.
Let's judge the value of an algorithmic trading system based on some basic performance metrics:
1) Absolute gain divided by drawdown (risk-adjusted growth)
2) Duration of live forward-test (in months)
3) Pairs in profit / total currency pairs (measure of successful diversification)
(being very liberal and ignoring things like max. stagnation period / stability index / sharpe ratio etc.)
Next, let's look at the price of other decent EAs on the market.
Let's take SFE. It sells for up to $2000. Some sell upwards $4000 and beyond. It is also a breakout system, and well diversified via lots of currency pairs (another important variable to consider). It appears to be a very robust system. Again being very generous here.
1) Abs.gain/dd = 193.1/17.87 = 10.81
2) Live duration = 23 months
3) Profit pairs/total pairs = 13/15 = 0.87
Assigning a value factor to make it a fair valuation:
= $2000 / (10.81*23*0.87)
= 9.25 (the value factor)
= 9.25 * 10.81 * 23 * 0.87
So to price your EA:
1) 302.76/42.07 = 7.2
2) 0.25 (since it's only been 8 days or ~quarter of a month)
3) 6/7 = 0.86
= 9.25 * 7.2 * 0.25 * 0.86
That's also not considering that what is currently shown is a demo forward-test only (or the fact that there's no backtests for additional assessment).
Of course the duration variable could be argued as irrelevant in this case, but I thought it's worthwhile to add just to account for the potential of survivorship bias (edit: it might have been better if I had counted only the months in profit).
In time your EA could be 'worth' more.
The output looks ridiculous I know. I might personally have priced it higher without such calculations, just for the record (and just to make the point that I'm not having some kind of negative bias against what you made or anything).