I am interested in seeing this research you refer to: 'WCS based on Monte Carlo analysis reached, some other statistical observation' Would you be kind enough to post it, if you have access to it? Thank you, Corre71
Usually to see If a strategy is invalidated u have simply to run a long term tick datas BTs, then run a Monte Carlo analisys (If someone don't know what it is just Google). It gives the Worse Case Scenario (after hundreds of iterations of the trades it shows the max drawdown to be expected with the % of probability to reach this. If this value is reached the strategy is invalidated.
But usually this DD value is too high and so i prefer to use another evaluation type: i run the BT with my risk level and see in the long run which DD value is reached and the longest stagnation period. If these values Are reached, i will make my considerations If to continue to run the EA or not.
Anyway these values Are far a way to be reached, so for the moment the strategy should be stil valid.
But bear in mind that all volatility based eas in the long run sufer for very long stagnation periods (2 years and more), it is normal. So these eas Are not for all. But their good risk reward ratio make them usually profitable.
But in trading nothing is sure
So keep the risk low and trade only amounts u can afford to lose
Running only Expert advisors with good long term backtests and nice forward tests