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KeltnerPRO - Jared (By keltnerpro)

Gain : +5645.75%
Drawdown 58.74%
Pips: 4744.8
Trades 1003
Won:
Lost:
Type: Real
Leverage: 1:100
Trading: Unknown

KeltnerPRO - Jared Discussion

btanalysis
Apr 30 2015 at 23:30
95 posts
The reason I'm asking about the next maximum/minimum prediction methodology is as follows: if we remove the January 15 USDCHF once-in-decades 'big swan' jump (which doubled this vendor's live account yet blew the other one), the chart will show that the bot's recovery is just about overdue. But then, again, the vendor manually more than doubled a trade's lot value from an average of 8.5 lots under the automatic money management before March 4 to a fixed value of 19.30 lots after March 4. So that makes me wonder how relevant the charting of lines connecting minimums/maximums on this live test's graph would be, considering this aspect.



btanalysis
Apr 30 2015 at 23:46
95 posts
For the above reasons, it would be more logical to use a live forward test's chart where the MM was not manually interfered with. One example of such a forward test of this bot is that by ForexGermany at https://www.myfxbook.com/members/forexgermany/keltnerpro/983876 where the EA has been run continuously on the recommended five currency pairs with the default settings from the very start. That live test's graph also suggests the bot's recovery is just about overdue.

Yet how reliable is the very method of connecting a forward test's chart's three upper and lower extremes to predict a retracement/recovery? Where can I read more about this method?



btanalysis
May 01 2015 at 00:15
95 posts
Lastly, here's a SNB-adjusted (excluding the January 15 USDCHF event) ForexGermany's chart with the connected minimums/maximums which shows the recovery even more overdue for a whole month:




giangian
May 04 2015 at 07:00
21 posts
BigSteve is just connecting the three last upper and lower points of a the chart with straight lines (where a line last crosses a chart at least thrice at the top and at the bottom). It's a standard technique used to determine trends on price charts: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/trend_of_the_day/2013/08/20/3_Tips_For_Trendline_Trading.html

He appears to be applying it to the bot's profits chart to determine its profit trend. Note that the points connected with the lines need to be the LAST three lower and upper ones (not the three all-time lower and upper ones). I've sketched these lines for your convenience on Forex Germany's chart. True, the reversal indeed appears to be overdue if this approach is correct.





Yet, charts cannot be seen sepatrately from the market conditions out there. What used to be relevant over a period of time (however long) might no longer be. One can't reasonably expect big breakouts on a pair of two weakening currencies traded against each other (EURUSD, that is).

giangian
May 04 2015 at 07:00
21 posts
Sorry, here's the correct graph:




btanalysis
May 05 2015 at 00:55
95 posts
The current EU losing streak started on March 25. From there on, it has been only losing days on EU. On multi-year EU backtests, 2012-2013 has been the worst period for this bot. On a backtest over that specific period, the longest single EU losing streaks lasted since September 17, 2012 till January 02, 2013 (that's three and a half months) and since April 23 till June 18 (that's almost two months). If memory serves me, it was also due to the Greek drama back then.

Difference between then and now? Back then, Greece wasn't facing a tough choice to either pay back the IMF (not doing which would constitute a spiraling default on all of its other obligations) or pay its domestic pensions and salaries. Back then, it was just a matter of defaulting or not defaulting on its debts owed to private bondholders (who were eventually forced to take a significant debt haircut during the so-called 'restructuring'). So deadlines kept shifting for months and the whole thing dragged on for nearly a year. With IMF, there's no such thing as shifting deadlines. It's either you pay on time or within 30 calendar days you have a 'credit event' served to you in cold blood. That's how that fund works - ask Argentina. Dats how dous bruhs roll, yo - as some Harlem boys would say. :) The same is the case with the domestic paychecks - regrettably, the pensioners and the government employees need to eat daily, so they need to have their paychecks on time. :) So no deadline shifting for months here, it's either up or down and soon. Watch May 6 and May 12 as deadlines (the dates of the IMF paybacks totaling 1 billion EUR). Party time!


corre71
May 05 2015 at 10:29
256 posts
Long term BT from 2004 shows on EURUSD a max stagnation period of 835 days with a max DD of 35%. Anyway stats shows that only 2006 closes with 122 pips loss and 2007 with 111 pips gain. So the longer stagnation period was from the end of 2005 till 2007. I personally think that the current DD on EU is normal and that the strategy will conrinue to work. On GBPUSD currently is working nicely, but BTs are not good as on EU

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Running only Expert advisors with good long term backtests and nice forward tests
btanalysis
May 05 2015 at 22:26
95 posts
corre71 posted:
Long term BT from 2004 shows on EURUSD a max stagnation period of 835 days with a max DD of 35%. Anyway stats shows that only 2006 closes with 122 pips loss and 2007 with 111 pips gain. So the longer stagnation period was from the end of 2005 till 2007. I personally think that the current DD on EU is normal and that the strategy will conrinue to work. On GBPUSD currently is working nicely, but BTs are not good as on EU


Unless your BT was done on tick data, the earlier years might be largely inaccurate due to compressed MetaQuotes data from back then. Also, there wasn't a divergent central banks' policy between ECB/BoE on one hand and the US Fed on the other one, like there's now. Breakouts are best not only when Europe screw it up big time yet again but when the US situation improves at the same time (and vice versa).

Run it since fall 2008 (when the global fun started) and you'll see fall 2012-fall 2013 as the longest stagnation period due to the Greek drama Act II on one hand and the US debt ceiling ordeal on the other one at the same time. With the Pound, it was some two years earlier in 2010-2011 when the UK got its first hung parliament since the 1970s while the US suddenly figured QE Round I proved a failure around the same time.

Divergent central banks' policies will bring you breakouts and profits with this bot. Or a string of economic surprises on our way to the promised recovery - as long as they don't occur in both the US and Europe at the same time.

corre71
May 06 2015 at 05:09
256 posts
I use only Tick datas for my BTs. Currently BTing other breakout strategy and i expect to see the longest stagnation period also on These from th end of 2005 up to 2006

Running only Expert advisors with good long term backtests and nice forward tests
btanalysis
May 06 2015 at 12:11
95 posts
corre71 posted:
Currently BTing other breakout strategy


Which one?

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