I do not forecast markets, nor do I predict trend directions. I read price-bar formations which give entry signals when they are present. There are major and minor entry signals which determine the risk to be taken on a trade (lot size) as well as how the SL is to be managed.
Monthly chart: Of the last 4 price bars, 3 consecutive bars were in the same (down) trend (open was higher than close price) The most recent finished bar (December) points in the opposite direction, therefore is a trend reversal (open low and close price is higher). the December bar is also an outside bar (lower low and higher high than the preceding (November) bar. The rule: if there are at least 3 bars in the same trend (in this case open high close low) followed by a reversal bar, the high of the reversal bar (in this scenario) is a MINOR entry signal. Place a buy-stop entry 1 pip above the high (ASK price) of the December bar. Place the SL at least 4 pips below the low of the same bar. Place the TP below the 1st reverse-hook, which on your chart is 1.1494 The current bar is Nr. 11 in consolidation which started with the March bar of last year. All following bars since March have either the open or the close (or both) INSIDE the high and low of the March bar. A consolidation can not contain more than 10 bars, meaning that Nr. 11 is the last bar that can be traded / according to the rules.
Weekly chart: The weekly chart shows a price consolidation with currently 6 bars. As I have written before, the 6th bar in consolidation is the most difficult to trade and should be avoided. There are 3 legitimate MAJOR entry signals visible. Buy-stop at the high from last week (1.0991 on our chart) plus 1 pip (ASK price) Buy-stop at the high from 3 weeks ago (1.1058 on our chart) plus 1 pip (ASK price)
The low of 5 weeks ago is also a legitimate MAJOR entry signal as it is a down-hook. (1.0515 minus 1 pip BID price)
Daily chart: The daily chart is in a trading range with the current bar being Nr. 24 The long bar that was formed on Dec. 3rd is the measuring bar (MB), because all following bars have either the open or close price (or both) inside the high and low of the MB. Trading out of a range is done by counting 3 sections, which usually start with a double/top or double bottom. In this case, there is only 1 double/top that is followed by 3 sections, which makes the low of Tuesday (1.0709 minus 1 pip BID price) a legitimate MAJOR entry signal. If prices do not break through this low, then there should be buy-stop entries formed in the next few days which I will post when they are completed. In the meantime, the entries from the weekly charts can be traded, which will be very similar to what could possibly be traded on the daily charts.
All price bar formation rules are valid in all timeframes. Take a close look at consolidations, congestions and trading ranges on intraday charts, like the 30 or 60 minute charts or even the 5 minute charts. You will find that the same formations occur on these time frames as well. Trade what you see on the charts and NOT what you (or others) think. If you strictly follow these rules you will realize that trading can be made quite easy.
The euro recovered some of the losses against the US dollar on Wednesday. The single currency broke the three-day negative series and gain some advantage over the dollar. The increase was not significant and so the pair still remains far from the level of the first resistance at 1.1003. Short-term expectations remain in favor of the euro. Wednesday session started at a price of 1.0747 and ended only with 32 pips higher. A significant increase was registered at the end of trading when was reached the peak for the day at 1.0798.
On yesterday session the EURUSD initially fell but found enough buying pressure to turn around and closed in the green near the high of the day, in addition managed to close within the previous day range, suggesting a week bullish momentum.
The pair closed for the second time below 50-day moving average that is acting as a dynamic resistance.
The key levels to watch are: the 10-day moving average at 1.0864 (resistance), the 1.0819 (resistance), the 50-day moving average at 1.0800 (resistance), a Fibonacci extension at 1.0703 (support) and a daily support at 1.0622.
The euro started the 2015 with a break below the psychological level at 1.20. The price rebounded from a 12-year low at 1.0465. In a case of breakthrough below this level, the pair should meet the support at 1.0240 and 1.0090 - low of 07.2002 If the direction of movement reverses, a strong resistance can be expected at 1.1180, 1.1490 and 1.1760.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.