TFX (Od BrianHarris96 )
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Sep 29 2021 at 07:14
Asia overnight
Further rises in UST yields and concerns about inflation and even stagflation
weighed on investor sentiment in the Asian session. The approach of another
interest payment on Evergrande’s debt is also weighing on sentiment. Fed Chair
Jerome Powell indicated that only decent jobs growth is needed next week to
trigger the Fed’s tapering of its asset purchases in November. Scenes of queues
for basic necessities in the UK and newswire reports of electricity rationing in
some provinces in China, have raised concerns about stagflation. Evergrande is
selling a stake in a regional bank to free up cash flow. While most Asian bourses
were trading in the red at the time of writing, S&P 500 futures were trading in the
green. G10 FX was trading in tight ranges. Rising Covid infections in NZ led to a
short squeeze in AUD/NZD. So, the AUD was the outperformer during the Asian
session and the NZD the underperformer. In Japan, the LDP Presidential
election will go to a second round of voting between the two lead candidates,
Taro Kono and Fumio Kishida. Both candidates failed to garner a majority of
votes in the first round. The JPY has been steady during the vote.
Further rises in UST yields and concerns about inflation and even stagflation
weighed on investor sentiment in the Asian session. The approach of another
interest payment on Evergrande’s debt is also weighing on sentiment. Fed Chair
Jerome Powell indicated that only decent jobs growth is needed next week to
trigger the Fed’s tapering of its asset purchases in November. Scenes of queues
for basic necessities in the UK and newswire reports of electricity rationing in
some provinces in China, have raised concerns about stagflation. Evergrande is
selling a stake in a regional bank to free up cash flow. While most Asian bourses
were trading in the red at the time of writing, S&P 500 futures were trading in the
green. G10 FX was trading in tight ranges. Rising Covid infections in NZ led to a
short squeeze in AUD/NZD. So, the AUD was the outperformer during the Asian
session and the NZD the underperformer. In Japan, the LDP Presidential
election will go to a second round of voting between the two lead candidates,
Taro Kono and Fumio Kishida. Both candidates failed to garner a majority of
votes in the first round. The JPY has been steady during the vote.
Sep 29 2021 at 07:24
SEK: Eyes on data, but Riksbank still far from changing tone
Like the EUR, the low-yielding SEK appeared less vulnerable than other G10 currencies to the
hostile risk environment. We’ll keep an eye on some domestic factors possibly affecting SEK
today. In particular, September’s Economic Tendency Survey, which will be released along with
consumer confidence data. Like in the eurozone, it will be worth monitoring how much drag to
business confidence has been generated by the combination of supply disruption and the
spread of the Delta variant.
We’ll also have two Riksbank speakers today (Breman and Floden). Markets are awaiting any
slight shift-away from the very dovish tone at the central bank, but our suspicion is that tone
this will hardly change by end of the year. We think we’ll continue to see EUR/SEK oscillate
within a tight range (10.12/10.22) in the coming days.
Like the EUR, the low-yielding SEK appeared less vulnerable than other G10 currencies to the
hostile risk environment. We’ll keep an eye on some domestic factors possibly affecting SEK
today. In particular, September’s Economic Tendency Survey, which will be released along with
consumer confidence data. Like in the eurozone, it will be worth monitoring how much drag to
business confidence has been generated by the combination of supply disruption and the
spread of the Delta variant.
We’ll also have two Riksbank speakers today (Breman and Floden). Markets are awaiting any
slight shift-away from the very dovish tone at the central bank, but our suspicion is that tone
this will hardly change by end of the year. We think we’ll continue to see EUR/SEK oscillate
within a tight range (10.12/10.22) in the coming days.
Sep 30 2021 at 07:22
Asia overnight
Despite mixed China PMI data, it was a stable day for sentiment in Asia. While
China’s manufacturing PMI data slipped below 50 and into contraction territory on
the back of power cuts, the services PMI increased further above 50 and showed
a rebound in activity post-Covid lockdowns, according to our China economist.
There was good news from the US, with Democrat Senate Majority Leader Chuck
Schumer announcing that a deal had been made to avert a US government
shutdown at the end of this week, with government spending being extended to
3 December. Admittedly, this amounts to just kicking the can down the road. A
statement by the PBoC said that it had told financial institutions to help local
governments stabilise the housing market. Most Asian bourses and S&P 500
futures were trading higher at the time of writing. A rebound in iron ore prices as
Chinese buyers build stocks ahead of a week-long holiday as well as a dip in
UST yields helped the AUD outperform the rest of G10 FX in the Asian session.
The USD and JPY were the weakest performers during the session.
Despite mixed China PMI data, it was a stable day for sentiment in Asia. While
China’s manufacturing PMI data slipped below 50 and into contraction territory on
the back of power cuts, the services PMI increased further above 50 and showed
a rebound in activity post-Covid lockdowns, according to our China economist.
There was good news from the US, with Democrat Senate Majority Leader Chuck
Schumer announcing that a deal had been made to avert a US government
shutdown at the end of this week, with government spending being extended to
3 December. Admittedly, this amounts to just kicking the can down the road. A
statement by the PBoC said that it had told financial institutions to help local
governments stabilise the housing market. Most Asian bourses and S&P 500
futures were trading higher at the time of writing. A rebound in iron ore prices as
Chinese buyers build stocks ahead of a week-long holiday as well as a dip in
UST yields helped the AUD outperform the rest of G10 FX in the Asian session.
The USD and JPY were the weakest performers during the session.
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