optimofx posted: Check my portfolio . Are the odds with me or not ?. The most people running ea's will fail because they dont have experience or they work with bad ea's like 99% commercial ea's in the market. If there's somehing that automatic trading is much better than manual , that are the odss my friend.
I don't agree that because it's automatic, it's better. These are the words of someone who cannot manually trade and fear it. If you were put you in a room with pencil , paper, quote board and a phone, you cannot pull money from the market. You need to optimize and enhance your program as the market changes in order to survive. This is a different talent than manual trading but it can take the same amount of work in the end. In the end, it only matters if you make money. So if EA's are working for you, then that's what you stick with.
Your performance Looks good . Your live account is only 12 months not 7 years as your image shows. This looks more like a back test. I think in the long term , with your average losses being twice as big as your average gains it could turn problematic . That being said, statistically the odds actually are against you but it's been performing well the past year so cheers to that.
Of course the porftolio is an optimization (backtest), thats why the odds are with me , because i study market past , did you do that for manual trading ? I dont think so. You talk about ratio but you dont talk about percentage of winners/loosers , you can make money with more loosers if they are small than winners or viceversa. The most important is the numbers of trades u had in backtest and real that confirm the consistency of a strategy, the reliability is a system. I cant trust in a manual trader because usually the number of trades are small so who u can trust in that when i have a system with more than 5900 trades in past , with a ratio of 1.91.
What u prefer ?? Nice words and promises from a manual trader , or real proofs.
i think that in a real world with rel money i would pick an excellent trader instead of an excellent ea on a long run ,like ambush trader said there could be broker manipulations this is why the odds are against automated trading,
Of course the porftolio is an optimization (backtest), thats why the odds are with me , because i study market past , did you do that for manual trading ? I dont think so.
Yes we did, actually the methodology of our strategy goes back to the 1920's on the S&P which is why we can still trade in a room with paper, pencil , quotes(tape) and phone if we were forced to.
The most important is the numbers of trades u had in backtest and real that confirm the consistency of a strategy, the reliability is a system.
Everyone in forex is tired of optimized back tests. they don't prove anything with retail tools . You dont have the tools and real aggregated tick data to run true back tests that institutions do. I suggest you look into Deltix . AS we all know past performance is not indicative of future results, especially curve fitted backtests. A system that can make more money with more losing trades will win in the long run in a real LIVE environment.
I cant trust in a manual trader because usually the number of trades are small so who u can trust in that when i have a system with more than 5900 trades in past , with a ratio of 1.91.
None of your 5900 trade in the past are real trades, they are a backtest. Yet we have our live accounts have over 4500 trades each in the last 3 years . We trade as many trades as you do over a whole year in a couple months
rob559 posted: ambush trader said there could be broker manipulations this is why the odds are against automated trading,
its uncertain information. no proof and its not proven. even its true there is nothing you can do about it. when they loss money people likes to blame others instead of selfs.
This is true,
@rob559 i might have worded it wrong, many brokers have dealing desks, markup schemes etc, but direct manipulation is not as common anymore because there is so much FX mt4 broker competition the broker will lose the client. In regards to automated, i think the space is too crowded with people trying to automate. i think 90% of traders who find mt4 is because they hear of Automated EA's. I also think 90% of traders will put more effort into buying, building and experimenting with EA's than putting that same effort into developing the discipline and skill needed for manual trading. Lets face it, the idea of having a terminal run on a VM printing money while you travel the world beaches is a much more glorious goal than sitting down and manually placing trades.
When trading the market you are really competing with everyone. I don't see the competitive edge( at least for me) in programming an EA in mt4. Too many people doing the same thing. And when you program an EA your resources are mostly code from forexfactory, indicators( all lagging) maybe some custom ones and whatever skill you have to pull from a DLL file that can give you some unique skew. i have seen and worked with what automated is on the institutional level and its nothing like this. Institutional have the benefit of analyzing flow on all their provider feeds, they have incoming and outgoing flow that they can run statistics on and adjust their algo based clearing book to be in their favor. They can also make algos to replicate credit client toxic flow for their own benefit. By credit clients i mean for example, FXALL uses JPM as a liquidity source and vise versa via prime broker give up agreements.
Im not 100% against EA's . hey look, some of the top autotrade guys are EA's and they are higher ranked than our Ambush Capital... Our Evolution mam could probably be ranked #1 but we preserve it to be mam only.
But as far as EA's vs Manual , I think in the end its a matter of personal preference and MOST IMPORTANT is what is working for you. AS for the broker, there are good and bad ones as we know, If you are profitable you need to be ready for full STP execution and the potential slippage and delays that come with it. This is normal though. We are lucky with how easy and sugarcoated execution is on MT4 brokers vs the big stuff.
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