EURUSD - All I want is to be able to compete in a fair market and this market isn't fair to small traders like myself. All I'm doing is what these massive Algorithms are doing day in day out!!! There are literally billions of trend lines. I could draw tram lines day in day out as broker websites tell us to do, but look at how often they break them. Not only that the market is moving sideways!!! Can't win, no matter what you do or you can but it's holding onto your money. I spent hours yesterday morning trying to buy USDCHF up, being guided by trend lines and every time they were being broken. I used stop losses, and I must have lost a dozen or more trades!!!
Greggy posted: Call me a sore loser, but I can't help but feel I was deliberately stopped out the night of the US Election. Nothing about these charts makes any sense to me, nothing about the Fibonacci retracements - nothing!!! Furthermore, as soon as they stopped me out I started closing my positions and then hey presto US$ starts to rise!!!
Firstly, the market is not interested in your demo account positions. The notion that the market is out to game your positions is unfortunately blame shifting. The golden rule is that the market is always right and so our job as trader is to understand how to position ourselves for the trade. Frankly the market doesn't care about your many lines and Fibonacci levels. The market will do what it wants to do.
Your comments of confusion would suggest to me that you have no idea what just happened. If you don't understand how the market works, how are you going to be consistently successful if that is your objective? As I said before, TA and trading are two different but integral components. Unfortunately you have a myopic view that TA is the solution. It is not because that are other elements involved.
This leads to my second point. What just happened with the market? When you trade you want to have an edge so that the outcome is more favourable to you than not. For weeks and leading to polling day, the market was generally of the view that Clinton will win. The odds quoted were from 75 % to 89 %. We can see that the currency market was pricing in such a result by the narrow volatility. As trader we always ask a basic question. Where does the risk and reward lie? if it turns out to be a Clinton win then the expectation would be limited reaction because the market has already priced in the anticipated result. This election is a binary event. It is either Clinton or Trump. However if it is a Trump win then the market will have a sharp reaction going the other side as it would have been caught on the wrong end. In other words, if you were to position for a trade, the risk and reward lies with a Trump win. This was an event setting up exactly like Brexit when the market was caught on the wrong side and so you would trade it like if you had traded Brexit.
Having established a possible trade scenario, the question was how do you enter the trade. An aggressive entry would be to limit in at the edges but that would be front running an event outcome that is not yet known. The less aggressive entry was a stop in and this is likely to be triggered when the initial returns started to indicate a Trump win and the key state to watch was Florida. There was a bit of volatility both ways when the Florida result see saw between who was leading but finally broke immediate key support when it appears that Trump was going to take Florida. That was the stop in scenario. The other question then becomes where do you exit your position. We know that the reaction would blow through a number of key levels but at which level would it be meaningful to take profits. Bill Mclaren always said that if you know your position is at risk when it gets to a certain level, you need to make a trade decision rather than do nothing.
There you have it. Plan your trade and trade your plan.
I don't think he wants to listen or learn from anyone
Greggy posted: EURUSD So where's my set up? No matter where I enter this market despite all my analysis the market goes against me. I think it is more a case of who you know and not what you know!!! Maybe my entries into the market are being monitored. It sucks!!!
When a farmer plants the same seed on the same field year after year and nothing grows he should re-eavaluate his farming methods, change the seed, change the field or do both because doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results is foolish.
Maybe it's time for you to re-evaluate your trading methods, take a brake, declutter your charts, look at its nakedness and see what's going on. Sometimes less is more. To try guide the market your way it's unlikely to happen. No matter how many lines you draw, the market will break it or bounce off it. The market will play with you and laugh at you each time you try and you'll go insane before you know it. The market is a Beast, he has no respect for you, he wants to see you suffering, he wants your blood. In a moment he will give you the feeling of winning and in another will rip your heart without pity.
If you wanna win, stop and observe it from a distance. Look at the big picture - Daily, Weekly and Monthly time frames. Lower than that and you are at his mercy. Do nothing for a while, just observe it. Study it without emotions. Remember emotions are your worst enemy. Don't try to understand it because there's nothing to understand. Nothing makes sense. So clear your mind from old thoughts, let it aerate and let new and clean thoughts in. He is naked now, he cannot hide behind the lines. You are seeing it's nakedness. He looks ridiculously stupid with it's moves up and down. Wait do not go in just yet. Laugh at it turn your back to it, walk outside and go enjoy life. Take your time do not rush back in. Without you he is nothing.
Go back when you master your emotions and you have a solid strategy.
Keep in mind the first 50 years are the worst, then it's easy!
@wortrader - Because the markets are manipulated fundamental also doesn't work.
I think my gains averaged out at about 30% this week, in markets that I know are heavily manipulated.
You problem @Greggy is yourself. And this stupid notion that need to be able to read markets to make money from them. The algo's you're up against are run by guys like me. We don't draw pretty lines. We crunch numbers, lots and lots of it. Over and over and over. High volumes of repetitive tasks.
I've got over 50 GIG ram going at any given time and I am short on resources. My data usage is over 100 GIG a month. What chance does your lines stand against that level of information processing ? That's why you're losing. You don't have a clue what you're doing. It's has nothing to do with the manipulation.
I don't even care if the brokers are pushing the price around, it's just another spike I can make money from. More they do it the better I do.
Think about it, 25 000 to 40 000 ticks coming in a day, I trade 28 pairs, that's a million value changes, or opportunities to make money, every day. And you're drawing lines ?
At peak times I'm sending up to 28 trades a minute PER ACCOUNT while you're staring at that stupid line you just drew.
Just got to find your edge.. i won't say those trendlines don't work, it just don't work for me after years of using all kind of indicators, S&R trendlines etc etc.. but maybe its just not for me and someone use it as an edge i don't know.. what i do know is most of your trades are in profit at one point in time regardless of direction, how you manage it will decide if your profitable or not. Don't get caught up too much on the direction your trading in.. focus on managing it..
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