FX Viper Live Master Account Diskussion

There are 2 problems with this account
1. The profit is funny, you would need like million USD to trade this for living.
2. The risk is low but compared to profit it is high.
3. Trading itself. It looks like he is just pilling positions without stop loss. I know how dangerous this is.
Look at this, at the time EU is close to 1.12 he keep short aggregated position at 1.05
EURUSD Sell 3.40 1.0573
Such position should have been closed long time ago to
A. protect account
B. to open another profitable positions and make profit.

A lot of smart asses here :)
You say this and this, and facts are:

- he survived trading like this for 5 years - and during this years there were numerous of high impact events
- he made $129566.14 up to date only on this account
- his drawdown was only 13.81% for this
- he does not use leverage

wake up, this is real trading, but most of you will still be looking for 100% per month super strategy

crashev posted:
A lot of smart asses here :)
You say this and this, and facts are:

- he survived trading like this for 5 years - and during this years there were numerous of high impact events
- he made $129566.14 up to date only on this account
- his drawdown was only 13.81% for this
- he does not use leverage

wake up, this is real trading, but most of you will still be looking for 100% per month super strategy

I think you're actually quite right, many people blow up because of their bad money management, if there is something definitely good with this strategy is money management, but that is the only good point, this strategy relies SOLELY on money management to get a steady equity curve... the returns that are the most important thing are quite disappointing, this trader made in 2016 5%, in 2015 barely he made 15%, an etf based on the s&p500 would be much more profitable and less risky at this point

crashev posted:
A lot of smart asses here :)
You say this and this, and facts are:

- he survived trading like this for 5 years - and during this years there were numerous of high impact events
- he made $129566.14 up to date only on this account
- his drawdown was only 13.81% for this
- he does not use leverage

wake up, this is real trading, but most of you will still be looking for 100% per month super strategy

@crashev
Yes survive is the right term. But everyone can survive with like 1% of monthly profit.

I don't understand why he would open a short on EUR at 1.12 and close it for 10 pips when he has shorts open at 1.03, if he is keeping the 1.03 shorts he must expect them to go into profit... so why not keep the 1.12 shorts until then. He would me minted if he did.

Ketu posted:
I don't understand why he would open a short on EUR at 1.12 and close it for 10 pips when he has shorts open at 1.03, if he is keeping the 1.03 shorts he must expect them to go into profit... so why not keep the 1.12 shorts until then. He would me minted if he did.

Accepting the loss in inevitable part of trading.
3. Trading itself. It looks like he is just pilling positions without stop loss. I know how dangerous this is.
Look at this, at the time EU is close to 1.12 he keep short aggregated position at 1.05
EURUSD Sell 3.40 1.0573
Such position should have been closed long time ago to
A. protect account
B. to open another profitable positions and make profit.

There's mainly 2 types of trading, though there are more variants, styles and combinations etc. But on a simple view, let me put it this way for layman understanding, though I might be wrong.

1 - A trade based on rules and systems - A Single trade based off fundamental/technical/feel obeying the first rule of entry and exit via stop loss and take profit. So often, this type of system should see a good 30-70% win rate and often as usual not profitable, as only maybe 20% of these account or less are profitable due to market's swing and retracement from time to time.

Obviously, the first, FX viper does not belong there.

The 1st style of trading management is more like a real trader who have confidence in his system and methodology.


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2 - Money management - Money manager.

Fundementally, FX Viper has been short EUR for quite some time already. And it was mainly due to the first entry and worst entry of a breakout trade that happened at 1.03**. And sadly market failed to close below there, and it started retracing back up. We have 1.15-1.16 as key resistance for now. Last few years, 1.20 was the key support. If FX Viper tank all the way up above 1.16. He's obviously gonna tank for uncertain number of years of forever as this is an ugly swing at the bottom of price channel. And fundementally. EUR is no longer as bearish with unemployment rate etc getting better, and countries like PIGS are actually getting better. Even though, from time to time, you can some greece issues.

The sad part was FXViper while tanking EURUSD, started touching other pairs like GBPUSD and USDCAD, this worsen the draw-down he's in. The good thing is he's using lesser than 1:1 per trade. But it doesn't matter now, like what vontogr mentioned, the avg price is around 1.05 and the lot size just keep adding higher.

The good part was FXVIPER hedged during 1.09+ and made 100 + pips instead of his regular few pips take profit everytime price surged higher.

FX Viper belongs here.

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In conclusion, he has 4-5 years of track. And he can still continue to make around 8-15% balance gains over equity gains and hoping that his equity and balance curve eventually returned to some point. But because of his 95% win rates, he might never be able to scale out of this underwater valley if 1.05 is never returned, as everytime even if market retraced, he will take profit very quickly.

But it's very stressful imagining that he was managing forexsignal's 10-20m retail investment, and now claiming IFG at 100M with wholesale. The stress is much higher due to the amount. And less willingness to cut losses.

Unless his old draw-down is crossed above 15%, then investors will start panicking.

My 2 cents.

crashev posted:
A lot of smart asses here :)
You say this and this, and facts are:

- he survived trading like this for 5 years - and during this years there were numerous of high impact events
- he made $129566.14 up to date only on this account
- his drawdown was only 13.81% for this
- he does not use leverage

wake up, this is real trading, but most of you will still be looking for 100% per month super strategy

The real problem is low profit.
I have the account started at the same time as Viper. While he made 100% since inception I made 700%.
https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/1619/Caesar2.html

crashev posted:
A lot of smart asses here :)
You say this and this, and facts are:

- he survived trading like this for 5 years - and during this years there were numerous of high impact events
- he made $129566.14 up to date only on this account
- his drawdown was only 13.81% for this
- he does not use leverage

wake up, this is real trading, but most of you will still be looking for 100% per month super strategy

also how do you get he does not use leverage?
He has about 3.4 lots of EURUSD. Without leverage you would need
3.4*100000*1.12 = $380,000 just for margin.

And check this account
huge loosing position of selling EU at 1.06
not good

togr posted:

crashev posted:
A lot of smart asses here :)
You say this and this, and facts are:

- he survived trading like this for 5 years - and during this years there were numerous of high impact events
- he made $129566.14 up to date only on this account
- his drawdown was only 13.81% for this
- he does not use leverage

wake up, this is real trading, but most of you will still be looking for 100% per month super strategy

The real problem is low profit.
I have the account started at the same time as Viper. While he made 100% since inception I made 700%.
https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/1619/Caesar2.html

Viper performance is just disappointing, and that is that, there is nothing to discuss about....But why you showing us your just as horrible(Sorry) performance account? Abs Growth = 38.33% with Max Historic Drawdown of 64.58% . This is just bad😭

IreneCapital posted:

togr posted:

crashev posted:
A lot of smart asses here :)
You say this and this, and facts are:

- he survived trading like this for 5 years - and during this years there were numerous of high impact events
- he made $129566.14 up to date only on this account
- his drawdown was only 13.81% for this
- he does not use leverage

wake up, this is real trading, but most of you will still be looking for 100% per month super strategy

The real problem is low profit.
I have the account started at the same time as Viper. While he made 100% since inception I made 700%.
https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/1619/Caesar2.html

Viper performance is just disappointing, and that is that, there is nothing to discuss about....But why you showing us your just as horrible(Sorry) performance account? Abs Growth = 38.33% with Max Historic Drawdown of 64.58% . This is just bad😭

Can you elaborate how did you get growth of 38?
The growth is over 700%

Viper is an awesome scalper but it baffles me as to why he wouldn't just trade with the direction of the trend, those euro trades might get a lot worse over time.

King_Dale posted:
Viper is an awesome scalper but it baffles me as to why he wouldn't just trade with the direction of the trend, those euro trades might get a lot worse over time.

Trading in direction of a trend.... why does it make me laugh? Because it is 'golden rule' sold by 'trading teachers' to gullible wannabe traders. It is easy to see a trend in the past but it is impossible to predict them. Markets are almost 100% random (Efficient Market Hypothesis) but very few people understand it (apart from brokers and providers of any kind of trading service who make money thanks to uneducated wannabe traders).

I believe that Viper has got some very small edge but it is much much worse than his track record would suggest. Why? Because taking small profits without stop loss can give you illusion of nice profits - with a bit of luck you can get away with it even for years but sooner or later market will run away from you and only 'method' you are left with is hope. Can EUR/USD go from this point 1000 pips north? Of course it can. Does Viper know that it will never happen? Of course he doesn't know that, nobody does. So what can Viper do if is happens? He can only decide when to give up huge chunk of his profits. Having said that I believe he has some small edge but it is nowhere near 130% in 4 years. Genuine profit is probably somewhere between 20% and 50% in 4 years.

Monthly Chart, EURUSD and GBPUSD might cover even higher.

Lookout for 1.16 resistance back to 1.2 former's support on EURUSD.

For GBP anything can happen during elections, we seen how it dropped from 1.7 and flash crash twice.

The lucky part is Viper's exposure on GU is not that massive compared to EU.

1.2-1.1967 was the gap during SNB unpegged on EURCHF.

Can you fully validate your account?

togr posted:

crashev posted:
A lot of smart asses here :)
You say this and this, and facts are:

- he survived trading like this for 5 years - and during this years there were numerous of high impact events
- he made $129566.14 up to date only on this account
- his drawdown was only 13.81% for this
- he does not use leverage

wake up, this is real trading, but most of you will still be looking for 100% per month super strategy

The real problem is low profit.
I have the account started at the same time as Viper. While he made 100% since inception I made 700%.
https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/1619/Caesar2.html

You didn't really make 700% your absolute gain shows different.

I find most traders add money to cover up drawdown which is why you see discrepancies between the Gain and the Absolute Gain.

At least one thing he has in his favour his gain has remained consistent in line the the realised or Absolute gain.

Or in other words.. he hasn't made any attempts to cover up drawdown.