Reliability EA 2.0 (by mwscofield) Quick Stats
Gain: +200.98%
Drawdown: 33.57%
Pips: 34768.5
Trades: 303
Won:
Lost:
Type: Demo
Leverage: 1:100
Trading: Automated

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Reliability EA 2.0 Discussion
pipdetector

Member Since Oct 28, 2009  78 posts pipdetector Nov 24 2010 at 15:24 (edited Nov 24 2010 at 15:29 )
Interesting results...

samedwards

Member Since Dec 16, 2009  9 posts samedwards Nov 24 2010 at 15:45
did u take a backtest? and what the result? thanks

pipdetector

Member Since Oct 28, 2009  78 posts pipdetector Nov 24 2010 at 15:47
Unfortunately, you cannot back test the EA (this is the biggest drawdown that keeps me from considering it as a buy). I wonder when the EA will start closing the present open positions.

samedwards

Member Since Dec 16, 2009  9 posts samedwards Nov 24 2010 at 15:54
yup... it open its position from 1 Nov till now.

Currently are you doing any manual trade or automated trade?

pipdetector

Member Since Oct 28, 2009  78 posts pipdetector Nov 24 2010 at 20:46
Mostly automated using ProForexRobot, Megadroid, GT-Shadow and Pipstrider.

I am testing Probability 7.0 and maybe I will include it in my toolbox next month.

Reliability 2.0 seems a bit expensive, backtests seem a bit dubious, because you cannot test them on your own even if you bought the EA. I do not feel up to parting with $1000 to test Reliability to find out that it does not work as 'advertised'...


rayong1

Member Since Nov 26, 2010  126 posts Raymond (rayong1) Jan 12 2011 at 05:33
9300 pip open trade drawdown is shocking. Closed trade drawdown is 2.55%, looks pretty if you don't close the losers.

If you trade a 1k account with 0.01 lot you'd be wiped out if it went the wrong way first.

Too risky.

pipdetector

Member Since Oct 28, 2009  78 posts pipdetector Jan 12 2011 at 08:15
Indeed, it seems that starting it with anything then 10000$ seems quite risky. Unless the System takes into account the equity size and opens new positions at much lower rates.

rayong1

Member Since Nov 26, 2010  126 posts Raymond (rayong1) Jan 12 2011 at 08:27
On a 1K account 0.01 lot is already the smallest lot size unless you get down to a micro account.

mwscofield

Member Since May 10, 2010  9 posts Michael W. Scofield (mwscofield) Jan 13 2011 at 14:10
Let me provide some insight into this, and I’ll do it by providing a simple example:

Let’s say you have two open trades, one is +120 pips, and the second is -100 pips. Overall your net equity increases by +20 pips. Then let’s say you close the positive trade, locking in that profit, leaving an open trade of -100 pips still active. The natural reaction when looking at this scenario is to say, ‘Wow look at the drawdown of -100 pips, that is terrible’. But looking at the big picture, what has actually happened is that your equity has increased by +20 pips.

This is what happens with Reliability EA. It is normal to look at the results and say, ‘Wow look at the drawdown of -9000 pips’, but in reality that is only because the larger more profitable trades were closed locking in that profit, and these have been left open. Overall a net gain has actually been achieved. It is important to look at the current equity (NOT the open trades NOR the account balance) as the determining factor of the profitability of the EA. In this test, the equity has increased +82% in just over 2 months.

Does that make sense? I hope it helps shed some light on what is happening. Again, this reaction is normal and to be expected, but based on incorrect factors. Keep the comments coming! I am happy to answer any questions.

And yes, the EA has money management coded in, so the trade sizes will increase or decrease based on equity.

michael.w.scofield@
BlackCode

Member Since May 11, 2011  30 posts Amr Saleh (BlackCode) Oct 17 2011 at 13:09
Hi,
I have two questions please:
1- why the hude DD and loss in Feb 2011
2- if you trust your EA that its wok, and almost a demo test, why you didnt run in real account yet?
Thanks

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