Janet Yellen is guiding the Federal Reserve towards its first rate rise in a decade armed with traditional economic models that some economists worry could fail her in a world of massive money printing and near zero rates.
The 69-year-old economist argues the time is coming for a rate-lift-off even though inflation has yet to accelerate, trusting decades of studies that suggest a tight labor market eventually creates inflationary pressures.
It is a risky wager considering that global inflation is at historic lows and many central banks remain in an easing mode as their economies struggle to get any traction.
If she is right, Yellen, who has already presided over the end of the Fed's bond-buying stimulus program, will cement her reputation and that of her 'dashboard' that relies on long-established relationships between jobs, wages and prices.
If she is wrong, the Fed could join the European Central Bank and the central banks of Sweden, Israel and Canada, which have all tried, but failed, to escape the drag of zero rates in the wake of the 2007-09 financial crisis.
There are reasons to doubt conventional economic theory. Many economists predicted a spiral of falling prices when the U.S. jobless rate soared during the crisis and then thought inflation would rise when unemployment plunged. Neither happened, though Yellen has maintained this year that the Fed was on course for rate increases, which would be 'data dependent,' likely gradual, and with no pre-set path.
This shows Yellen 'is grounded in traditional modeling but she is well aware that there is uncertainty,' said Randall Kroszner, who served with Yellen as a Fed governor between 2006 and 2009.
'It is possible, though unlikely, the traditional models are just all wrong (and) we're in a whole new world. But she's not going to fly by the seat of her pants,' Kroszner said.
Yellen has made clear that models only serve as guideposts in a complicated decision-making process.
Did a long trade off the Asian bottom retest ,as I was saying earlier we might get a retest,which we did,price hit the upper BB,closed trade with points in the bag,Some times this is to easy and other times your view is wrong.
It's time to relax,put your feet up and have a beer,it's been a good year considering the shaky markets,hope you all have a prosperous New Year.No positions open over the Christmas period,I think there will be some bargains New Year.New project to get started with chasingreturns.com
We got a push to the downside,I placed a long position on eur/usd @ 910 ,I have a stop loss at 900,the reason im going long ,1 stocks are to open higher,2 gold is going up,Oil is up,Wall street is under pressure to deliver a year end rally.Lower BB was broke ,this might be the start of an up trend,we shall see if the open has any effect.
On the 4 hour chart there is support at 870,no major change on European close which suggest to me more weakness if we get a lower level than the 4pm spike down depending on how many points its breached by,we could see a reversal,seeing a bit of an up trend at the moment,wise move at 4pm ,lets see how many point we can grab this time.
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