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RMC3WLP68T
Jul 18 2016 at 08:57
24 messages
stian posted:
RMC3WLP68T posted:
Hero76 posted:
Well I think in that case a lot of response to USA elections which is coming this year. Situation in States is very unstable just have a slightly look at news. But I think almost everyone understands who is going to be next president here and what kind of politic trend will be chosen


I don't know, who is going to be the next president? lol

Clinton is having a major lead in general election polls (only exception this month was Rasmussen Reports?), and 4.5 point lead in RCP 4-way average.

Don't think the result will affect the market much.


What does that mean for the markets if Clinton becomes president? I guess I don't understand the reasoning why USD would gain or lose value with Clinton.

stian
Jul 18 2016 at 09:08
324 messages
RMC3WLP68T posted:
stian posted:
RMC3WLP68T posted:
Hero76 posted:
Well I think in that case a lot of response to USA elections which is coming this year. Situation in States is very unstable just have a slightly look at news. But I think almost everyone understands who is going to be next president here and what kind of politic trend will be chosen


I don't know, who is going to be the next president? lol

Clinton is having a major lead in general election polls (only exception this month was Rasmussen Reports?), and 4.5 point lead in RCP 4-way average.

Don't think the result will affect the market much.


What does that mean for the markets if Clinton becomes president? I guess I don't understand the reasoning why USD would gain or lose value with Clinton.


As I said, I don't think the result (of Clinton winning) will affect the market much. On the off-chance that Trump would win however,
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-default-national-debt_us_572d08e3e4b096e9f0917fac
This:

“I would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal,” Trump told CNBC. If the U.S. borrowed too much and invested its fresh cash in unproductive products, Trump would tell creditors to accept less than what he’d initially agreed to.

Another way to describe this plan: “I would default on the national debt.”

That would be devastating.

RMC3WLP68T
Jul 18 2016 at 09:10
24 messages
@stian Yes, that makes sense. I've never traded on fundamentals so I was trying to figure out the thought process.

xgavinc
Jul 18 2016 at 09:42
235 messages
Looking from a third perspective (I'm not a US citizen), it seems Trump will openly spend an enormous amount of money on questionable 'non-essential' infrastructure (like a wall) though he does seem determined to fix the economy, and Clinton will spend an enormous amount of money on everything (and lie about spending it), she seems to be more focused on fixing 'working class' problems (I haven't heard her mention the poor and impoverished - Trump seems one up on this)... both seem to be a negative outlook for markets either way.

Obama claims Clinton has a plan and Trump doesn't... from where I'm sitting I still don't see any concrete plans (yes, pun intended Mr. Trump, lol!) from either, and the supposed (theoretical) plans seem to be 'presidential nomination regurgitation' that a president has yet to deliver, and none seem to accomplish the goals (promises), or will fix one thing and totally annihilate another (Obamacare? - sound idea, bad implementation and overly complicated - but he did curb job losses, eh?).

Though I think the markets will move based on policy implementation after elections, I don't think the election itself will make a profound impact (The US election process is so long and drawn out, the markets are adapting in real time as the process unfolds).


For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
xgavinc
Jul 18 2016 at 10:08
235 messages

“I would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal,” Trump told CNBC. If the U.S. borrowed too much and invested its fresh cash in unproductive products, Trump would tell creditors to accept less than what he’d initially agreed to.

Another way to describe this plan: “I would default on the national debt.”

That would be devastating.


That would be more akin to a credit review, not a default. Your creditors accepting less (less interest or just outstanding capital loan amount - no interest (thereby accepting the interest they have made as final), is not a default. If anything, the US is already defaulting (not paying certain loans) as they cannot afford it ($Trillions), Trump would renegotiate on outstanding debt and not take on more debt on unproductive products / services - that's what he's saying. He also says it right there “I would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal,” - if the US economy crashed, creditors would get nothing, by default. He would be willing to make a deal with creditors (secured government bonds? who knows.) thereby not defaulting at all.

For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
Hero76
Jul 18 2016 at 13:55
39 messages
stian posted:
RMC3WLP68T posted:
Hero76 posted:
Well I think in that case a lot of response to USA elections which is coming this year. Situation in States is very unstable just have a slightly look at news. But I think almost everyone understands who is going to be next president here and what kind of politic trend will be chosen


I don't know, who is going to be the next president? lol

Clinton is having a major lead in general election polls (only exception this month was Rasmussen Reports?), and 4.5 point lead in RCP 4-way average.

Don't think the result will affect the market much.

Well if Clinton will win we will see a lot of wars in Asia Africa and Eastern Europe because global business have to save their power and money from crash. For them it is te question of survival becausr there is a big fight in elite they are not unite anymore.
RMC3WLP68T I will not answer your question but we'll see

xgavinc
Jul 18 2016 at 14:04
235 messages
Hero76 posted:
stian posted:
RMC3WLP68T posted:
Hero76 posted:
Well I think in that case a lot of response to USA elections which is coming this year. Situation in States is very unstable just have a slightly look at news. But I think almost everyone understands who is going to be next president here and what kind of politic trend will be chosen


I don't know, who is going to be the next president? lol

Clinton is having a major lead in general election polls (only exception this month was Rasmussen Reports?), and 4.5 point lead in RCP 4-way average.

Don't think the result will affect the market much.

Well if Clinton will win we will see a lot of wars in Asia Africa and Eastern Europe because global business have to save their power and money from crash. For them it is te question of survival becausr there is a big fight in elite they are not unite anymore.
RMC3WLP68T I will not answer your question but we'll see


I'm also leaning toward a Trump win... primarily because I'm curious to see what that wall will look like :-D

For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
Magixs (Magiic)
Jul 18 2016 at 14:44
435 messages
RMC3WLP68T posted:
stian posted:
RMC3WLP68T posted:
Hero76 posted:
Well I think in that case a lot of response to USA elections which is coming this year. Situation in States is very unstable just have a slightly look at news. But I think almost everyone understands who is going to be next president here and what kind of politic trend will be chosen


I don't know, who is going to be the next president? lol

Clinton is having a major lead in general election polls (only exception this month was Rasmussen Reports?), and 4.5 point lead in RCP 4-way average.

Don't think the result will affect the market much.


What does that mean for the markets if Clinton becomes president? I guess I don't understand the reasoning why USD would gain or lose value with Clinton.



If Clinton wins, the top 1% will be much better off and not have to change a whole lot if anything at all, which will in turn put the USD in a positive position, as no immediate change would occur. If Jill stein or Bernie Sanders were to win ( which is impossible now) then there would be serious change to the way the american businesses/economy run, and the USD would tank downwards.

Reality and change for the best does not always equate to gains in the pair it is about.

Trump wins = who the F knows what will happen next and the USD would probably rally due to global concerns since he has ridiculous ideas. And has come out and said ridiculous things, so that could well be the end of the USD being the global reserve currency.

It's happened time and time again, and D Trump would be a fair reason for it to happen once again.


xgavinc
Jul 18 2016 at 15:22
235 messages
When it really comes down to it, the US president has little to no power anyway (in the grand scheme of things). He / She still has to get through the Senate and Congress. He or she can appoint people into certain positions, veto bills, grant reprieves and pardons except in the case of impeachment and is bound by the constitution. Anything beside that is done by recommendations to Congress (requiring 2/3rds majority support in almost anything). The Supreme Court can also override decisions the president makes that they deem are legally irresponsible. Each state has it's own set of rules and governing body that are untouchable by the president.

So what most candidates say and what they do or more likely CAN do, is entirely not up to them.

The only traits required by a good president is negotiation and bargaining (not bribery) to get government support.

For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
RMC3WLP68T
Jul 19 2016 at 06:53
24 messages
xgavinc posted:
When it really comes down to it, the US president has little to no power anyway (in the grand scheme of things). He / She still has to get through the Senate and Congress. He or she can appoint people into certain positions, veto bills, grant reprieves and pardons except in the case of impeachment and is bound by the constitution. Anything beside that is done by recommendations to Congress (requiring 2/3rds majority support in almost anything). The Supreme Court can also override decisions the president makes that they deem are legally irresponsible. Each state has it's own set of rules and governing body that are untouchable by the president.

So what most candidates say and what they do or more likely CAN do, is entirely not up to them.

The only traits required by a good president is negotiation and bargaining (not bribery) to get government support.


Yes, true. Thanks for that reminder. That's a downside (or upside) to having the 'check and balance.'

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