US & Global Economy Slowing – Tariffs to Blame?
Looks like 2025 isn’t starting strong for the US economy. Q1 growth was only 0.4% – weakest in almost 3 years. Consumers are pulling back, trade deficit is ballooning, and people are starting to talk “recession” again.
Globally it’s the same story:
- Canada’s growth may stall after elections + tariff issues.- China could lose up to 2.3% of GDP from US tariffs.- Europe barely grew at 0.2% in Q1.On the flip side, US jobs are still holding up (unemployment steady at 4.2%), and Europe’s inflation looks a bit better than the US.
Personally, I feel like tariffs are creating more uncertainty than growth. Companies don’t want to invest, consumers are saving more, and markets look shaky.
What do you guys think — are tariffs the real problem here, or just an easy scapegoat for a slowdown that was coming anyway?
Tariffs can be a headwind, but I’m watching leading data (PMIs/new orders) from my HFM MT5 economic calendar and financial conditions as the bigger drivers of risk appetite. If credit spreads widen while PMIs stay sub-50, the slowdown is more than just trade policy
