UK ELECTIONS 2017

Hello all respected traders and visitors of this topic.

I think everyone wonder about the results of the upcoming UK elections, who wins and what would be the market reaction. I want to show you one method that was tested by me on several previous elections to predict the outcome. It is as simple as it may be. I analysed google trends statistics to check on the results tagged by Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn. As you can see on the image, Theresa May has slightly more public interest, than Jeremy Corbyn.

So the question of the day is what does this mean for the market in general, and, particularly, for us?
To my mind this data shows us very well the balance of force in UK parliament wont change so all that play was just sucking money from Britain's pocket.
As a result, GBP, after a very high volatility, shooting down buy stops, should return to the pre-election mid April levels.

In case you opinion is different, please feel free to express it.

P.S.: All pm's would be answered after this weekend.

Thanks a lot for your contrition! I am agreeing with your opinion, same strategy I’m setting here for this election session! Let’s see what market offers us!

Very good approach to have some initial expectations. I personally would prefer to enter on 'cable' after the reaction coming out of the elections.

ha ha ha google trends statistics - please , its got nothing to do with forex ...waist of time


your results r set for 5 years . change it to 7 days

BaldoN posted:
Very good approach to have some initial expectations. I personally would prefer to enter on 'cable' after the reaction coming out of the elections.

'Cable' entering is indeed lowers some pressure, but may be much more risky overall.
First of all, it might be intentional movement to kick out the majority originated from the market itself, or from a smart-@ss broker. Also, due to low liquidity, most brokers decrease leverage and widen spreads immensely. Taking all that into account I think, that opening positions not prior, but during such important events is very inconvenient and may have heavy consequences.

maxulr posted:

BaldoN posted:
Very good approach to have some initial expectations. I personally would prefer to enter on 'cable' after the reaction coming out of the elections.

'Cable' entering is indeed lowers some pressure, but may be much more risky overall.
First of all, it might be intentional movement to kick out the majority originated from the market itself, or from a smart-@ss broker. Also, due to low liquidity, most brokers decrease leverage and widen spreads immensely. Taking all that into account I think, that opening positions not prior, but during such important events is very inconvenient and may have heavy consequences.

Opening the positions prior event is more or less close to gambling. During the event may depend from market conditions, but still due to the high volatility and low liquidity the stops could be triggered quickly. After the event is much better, after the sharp market reaction :).
To be honest, I was missed last night UK election market party - being on another event :)

Kind of expected it will be a hung parliament but never knew the retracements were so weak and GBP is still under pressure.

Forex_Villa posted:
Kind of expected it will be a hung parliament but never knew the retracements were so weak and GBP is still under pressure.

Wait until they actually do start working on Brexit, the pressure will only increase, I think.

It will be a disaster if May forms any party with DUP in N.Ireland ,a through back to the dark ages, 300,000 have signed a petition against any such move in the first 12 hours.

what happen on monday opening. it is up or down ??

ANSHU870 posted:
what happen on monday opening. it is up or down ??

You already got your answer! Actually, these types of news events are too much critical! Only good skilled Forex traders are able to understand the actual movements of market! By the way, right now I am with EUR!

There was a bullish hint earlier this morning at London open.

mlawson71 posted:

Forex_Villa posted:
Kind of expected it will be a hung parliament but never knew the retracements were so weak and GBP is still under pressure.

Wait until they actually do start working on Brexit, the pressure will only increase, I think.

Brexit negotiations are going to be a nightmare. The GBP could super volatile for 2 years as every politician wants to say something positive or negative about how they are going

As per my opinion, the end decision has been taken and already calculated in the price. The movement and volatility around different point of negotiation most likely will have similar to the 'news' effect over the sterling in crosses.

ZacThePac posted:

mlawson71 posted:

Forex_Villa posted:
Kind of expected it will be a hung parliament but never knew the retracements were so weak and GBP is still under pressure.

Wait until they actually do start working on Brexit, the pressure will only increase, I think.

Brexit negotiations are going to be a nightmare. The GBP could super volatile for 2 years as every politician wants to say something positive or negative about how they are going

Those are my thoughts exactly too. I don't know how am I going to trade the GBP, I might even avoid it altogether. It depends.

BaldoN posted:
As per my opinion, the end decision has been taken and already calculated in the price. The movement and volatility around different point of negotiation most likely will have similar to the 'news' effect over the sterling in crosses.

We've never had a brexit before though, prices can be calculated for other events because they've happened before, two other things effecting the UK, inflation and wage growth .

Both of those indicators are pointing towards a recession in my view. I have a very dark out look for the UK over the next few years