US Elections

Topic on the impact of US Elections on the markets before, during and after.

I won't be trading while waiting for the results, just like I didn't when I was waiting for the Brexit results, that's for sure.

I'll continue trading with caution, at the moment I'm concentrating on getting my margin level up. Neither of the candidates are appealing, in the sense that 1. They mostly have attacked one another, instead of saying what makes themselves capable 2. Both have ideologies without any concrete plan (Trump is very ambitious, Clinton just basically regurgitating what the last 3 presidents have 'promised'). So I'll be looking at actual action and implementation for market movers and remain hesitant on media splurge.

I will also be careful (if I will find a good broker till that time), but I will be particularly closely watching the dollar movement. I offer to make some suggestions on how the dollar will behave depending on winning of each candidate. Besides we will have almost 3 months from the time of the decision made and the introduction of a new president in the post

I think we'll all be watching the dollar movement. Even if one's not trading dollar-related pairs, all the currencies are so interconnected with the dollar that whatever happens to it affects the rest of the market too.

mlawson71 absolutely agree with you, you just duplicate my thoughts. Eventually a lot of traders say that the dollar is rising the last few years, and then the dollar will collapse. And therefore I do not abandon the idea that the Amero is preparing to come and replace it, and all that awaits us in the near future. By the way, is there a topic which is discussed Amero on this forum? Could you please share link. Thank you in advance

Hero76 posted:
mlawson71 absolutely agree with you, you just duplicate my thoughts. Eventually a lot of traders say that the dollar is rising the last few years, and then the dollar will collapse. And therefore I do not abandon the idea that the Amero is preparing to come and replace it, and all that awaits us in the near future. By the way, is there a topic which is discussed Amero on this forum? Could you please share link. Thank you in advance

Frankly, up until you mentioned the Amero I hadn't even heard of it.
Now that I read up a little on it, I think I should say that in order for something like this to happen people would need to want such a change. Considering how everyone wants to close themselves within their own borders for various reasons I don't think that will happen anytime soon.

mlawson71 well, I have totally opposite point of view. I think that if Trump will win, he will pursue a policy of isolationism and largely focus on the internal problems of the country and will actively pursue a policy with its neighbors, so then Amero will be introduced. The US has a huge national debt that they simply cannot handle, and the emission no longer conducts. So Amero is a quite a way out of this situation. For me this picture become more obvious so that’s why I am so intently watching this US election

Hero76 posted:
mlawson71 well, I have totally opposite point of view. I think that if Trump will win, he will pursue a policy of isolationism and largely focus on the internal problems of the country and will actively pursue a policy with its neighbors, so then Amero will be introduced. The US has a huge national debt that they simply cannot handle, and the emission no longer conducts. So Amero is a quite a way out of this situation. For me this picture become more obvious so that’s why I am so intently watching this US election

Perhaps he will pursue such agreements with Canada - that is, if he gets elected. Considering his attitude towards Mexico - and how much he has already alienated Mexico, I can't see such a deal happening there. We'll have to wait and see.

It is quote possible for the US dollar to collapse, given the fact that during last couple of years it has being rising. Another interesting thing is that in US oil gets very cheap near president elections, and after that it's price goes back to normal. I know because friends of mine shared this information with them and I do tend to believe them

That sort of information is easy to check if one looks at the history of Oil charts and compares the time period around the elections to the Oil price at that time.

During this period, I won't trade for sure. There will be a lot of loopholes for market makers as always.

I don't plan on trading then either. I always try to avoid trading during big fundamental events.

will scale down the risk at its minimum

From what I read and see in the news, I don't expect a major shift in the political orientation of the country. I think that if the status quo is kept after the elections, there won't be much impact of this event on the price patterns of all dollar-related pairs.
Minimising the risk, though, is a rule of thumb in such cases. I will keep trading around the elections.

Brokers are certainly expecting an impact though. Many of them have already hiked their USD pair-related margins as well as the margins of some indices. (https://www.forexbrokerz.com/news/octafx-us-elections-margin) Others will likely do the same soon.

if Trumps wins USD will drop for like 10 % , thats what a hear

DrVodka posted:
if Trumps wins USD will drop for like 10 % , thats what a hear

And HRC a drop of 20%?

Let's be honest, anyone believing anything from HRC needs a reality check. Disregarding votes, ask who you would trust more to invest your money for you. I would not trust HRC with a dime of my money, but I would trust DT with no more than a Dollar.

As Clinton is a candidate standing up for democrats (same party as of Obama’s). Clinton gets a better probability of winning over Trump. On the other hand, Trump is very aggressive in nature and has a lot of followers which indicates that trump hasn’t lost yet. In my view, Trump has more likability factors than Clinton. But Clinton is giving all those promises as made earlier by Obama in previous two terms.