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Global markets are watching closely the BoE’s speech and the political crisis in France. In Japan, Takaichi’s election brings expectations of a looser monetary policy, moving the USD/JPY.

Meanwhile, gold is surging to record highs amid uncertainty over the U.S. government shutdown, and copper remains firm amid tight supply.

Gold price (XAU/USD) reached a record high near $3,920, driven by uncertainty over the U.S. government shutdown and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The failure of U.S. senators to approve proposals to reopen the government prolongs the shutdown, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

The market is reacting with strong inflows into gold, supported by speculation about a possible 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting. The potential for an additional rate cut by the end of the year further reinforces gold’s appeal, as it does not yield interest but tends to perform better in a low-rate environment. However, some profit-taking may occur after eight consecutive weeks of gains.

Gold maintains an inverse correlation with the dollar and risk assets, appreciating during periods of geopolitical instability and economic fears. Central banks are increasing their reserves, strengthening confidence in the metal as protection against inflation and currency devaluation. The behavior of the dollar will continue to be a key factor for gold’s next price movements.

USD/JPY — Testing resistance at 150.92 (August 1 high) and 151.30 (March double top). Caution is recommended in breakouts above 151.00, with the possibility of selling, as the pair is above the level suggested by 2-year US–Japan bond spreads.

EUR/USD — Support at the 100-day moving average around 1.1627; next relevant support at 1.1575. Downward pressure dominates, with RSI below 50 and negative MACD indicating possible renewed decline.

GOLD (XAU/USD) — In an ascending channel from US$3,720, with solid support around US$3,940. Immediate resistances at US$3,980 and US$4,000, with the 4h RSI recovering from oversold, signaling potential upward movement.

GBP/USD — Trading below the 20-day exponential moving average at 1.3475, with key support at 1.3140 and resistance at 1.3725. The 14-day RSI indicates a sideways trend.

USD/CNH — Consolidating between 7.1340 and 7.1480 in the short term. A sustained breakout above 7.1480 is necessary for continuation of the uptrend, with support at 7.1250.

gold surpassed the all-time high again

🟡 GOLD SURPASSES US$4,000 ON STRONG ASIAN DEMANDGold (XAU/USD) hit a record of US$4,000 during the Asian session, driven by strong buying interest. The rally is supported by expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and growing economic uncertainty due to the U.S. government shutdown.

The market is reacting as investors seek safe-haven assets, while the U.S. shutdown limits key economic data releases, such as the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, complicating the Fed’s decisions. The expectation is for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the next Fed meeting, with a possible new reduction later in the year to ease borrowing costs and support gold’s attractiveness.

Additionally, political instability in France and Japan reinforces demand for the metal. Investors are also watching the upcoming FOMC minutes, which may signal the Fed’s next moves. A more hawkish tone could strengthen the dollar and temporarily pressure gold prices.

In the U.S., the trading session was challenging, with indexes closing lower: Nasdaq -0.7%, S&P 500 -0.4%, and Dow Jones -0.2%.Notably, Trilogy Metals shares rose more than 200% after the Trump administration announced a US$35.6 million investment to strengthen domestic supply of essential minerals from Alaska. Oracle shares fell after revealing weaker cloud margins due to Nvidia chips.

Investors are awaiting the minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting, where it cut interest rates in September for the first time this year. The market is betting on further cuts later this year, but policymakers remain cautious amid persistent inflation and limited data due to the U.S. government shutdown.

The minutes could offer clues about the Fed’s view on inflation and the labor market — at a crucial moment with only two meetings left in 2023 to define the direction of monetary policy.

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The market remains focused on politics in France, with Macron promising to appoint a new prime minister within 48 hours to calm the crisis and avoid early elections. In the U.S., expectations of interest rate cuts in October and December are growing stronger after the Fed minutes, while the dollar recovers against several currencies.

In Asia, the yen reacts to Sanae Takaichi’s victory and the pressure for the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates low, despite inflation being above target. Gold and silver continue to rise, driven by political instability and expectations of monetary easing.

Good trades and have an excellent day, everyone!

💯Nice 

Good morning, everyone!Markets remain focused on the escalation of tariffs between the US and China, with trade tensions still setting the global tone. In Europe, political doubts in France and uncertainties about the budget keep the euro under pressure.

Meanwhile, silver continues to show strength, driven by demand for safe-haven assets, while the Australian dollar tries to stabilize after recent volatility.

Markets breathe, but the US-China tariff game keeps a cautious mood. 🏯 ASIA & OCEANIAChina reported exports and imports above expectations, with strong growth in sectors such as semiconductors and vehicles, but a decline in exports to the US. The Australian dollar (AUD) rose 0.8% after Chinese data and a hawkish RBA speech, signaling concern with inflation and monetary policy. In Japan, the yen weakened against the dollar as political uncertainty rose following the ruling coalition’s breakup, while USD/JPY awaits a new trend definition.

 🇪🇺 EUROPEThe euro fell below 1.1600 against the dollar, pressured by uncertainty over the new French cabinet and the impact of the trade war. Macron reinstated Lecornu as prime minister, but the approval of the budget remains in doubt, weighing on sentiment. The EUR/JPY pair shows a technical rebound, testing key resistances. The political and economic outlook in Europe remains fragile, with attention turning to speeches from central bankers at the IMF.

 🇺🇸 UNITED STATESThe US threatens 100% tariffs on Chinese goods starting November 1, heightening risks in the trade dispute. Uncertainty in the American government persists, limiting fiscal stimulus while investors await speeches from Fed and IMF members. The labor market surprised positively, strengthening the US dollar and reducing bets on interest rate cuts.

 💱 CURRENCIESThe US dollar loses ground but faces resistance against the yen and the euro. The British pound oscillates between support and resistance, with potential pullback toward 1.3200. The Australian dollar is trying to consolidate between 0.6465 and 0.6530, supported by Chinese data and RBA comments.

 🪙 COMMODITIESSilver remains firm, up 3% to $51.50, driven by safe-haven demand amid trade tensions and US government paralysis. Precious metals gain further strength, with short-term targets at $51.70 and potential extension to $52.90.

The dollar slows down after dovish Fed speech, signaling rate cuts later this year.The pound reacts with gains, while the euro remains steady amid political risks in France and mixed industrial data in the eurozone.

Gold continues to hold firm, aiming to surpass US$ 4,200, supported by dollar weakness and expectations of monetary easing. In Asia, the renminbi shows gradual appreciation, while the yen strengthens amid political instability in Japan.