EASY 25% p. Month

Thanks Sherry,
you are very welcome to watch this

actual snapshot

my $10 Account, very Risky for this of course but worth to try

What's emotions go to do with trading?

I find this quite irritating for 2 reasons.

The first being that someone who is doing say 2% or 4% a month quite stably for the last say 5 years can't compete with this claim even though it's primarily bullshit.

And secondly the amount of regulatory changes in the last two years in fx has been substantially more than the rest of the industry for the last 15 years. In other words because of claims like this and the losses that follows for clients the industry is going to end up being so heavily regulated that most of us can't trade it.

Ask any American, they're already having trouble.

But hey, what do I know...

Hey PipGnostic,
I already know your thinkin about my system and est. monthly gain so I would say you do now what you told me before and end this.
I invite you to come back after one month. Meantime you can analyze the history for bad behaviour or other bad stuff.
I personally know too that my claim is very high and everybody else understand all your given points against it so nothin else to speak about.
btw., DD is right now at 10%. I can easily live with that one.
Just calm down, relax and watch please.....

Not going to analyze anything. No need. You'll see your posterior in due course. Don't blame it on external factors like a tsunami next time. Got nothing to do with it. That strategy is fundamentally flawed on all levels. It can't work. It's not possible for it work.

The most obvious factors are:

1. Kurtosis : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat-tailed_distribution
2. Martingale - which accelerates the kurtosis
3. Targets - which at that size right of the bat incurs a kurtosis to big for any portfolio to handle with this kind of leverage.

In terms of targets and kurtosis, about 20% of your trading days are going to be the determining factor of what the system can do. That 10% of yours is in markets that are barely moving. I been trading them to and haven't seen any significant move for months. My volumes are way down on busy times. Markets have 4 states. We been in low volatility non trending market for some time.

Pretty much when things kick back into gear you're buggered. When it fails come back here and read this. There is no if's or maybes about your system. It will fail. If you don't understand why read up on the distributions.

Read this bit very carefully and slowly:

'Many—notably Benoît Mandelbrot as well as Nassim Taleb—have noted this shortcoming of the normal distribution model and have proposed that fat tail distributions such as the stable distribution govern asset returns frequently found in finance.[2]'

Mandelbrot is the fractal guy (the math used to measure mountain ranges and coast lines) and Nicholas Taleb is the Black Swan guy. Go buy their books.

'The Black–Scholes model of option pricing is based on a normal distribution. If the distribution is actually a fat-tailed one, then the model will under-price options that are far out of the money, since a 5 or 7 sigma event is much more likely than the normal distribution would predict.'

Of course you'll remember Black and Scholes as LTC - biggest bankruptcy in US history before Enron, won a noble prize for their work. Some very, very clever people have seen their asses due to this. Figure it out mate.

You see,

I'm not 100% sure yet, but I'm starting to think all the funds run fat tail systems. They've never solved this problem to, and all of them run at < 30% per annum if they are to survive for any period of time.

Only the HFT guys managed more and as their are at least 100 of them competing on speed alone now against each they are down to a few percent per year. Only the biggest and the best are getting anywhere.

I hope that puts things into perspective for you. Barking up the wrong tree here. No cats here.

a little pic about my system. With this Martiangale style i think it is pretty safe to survive some events....
watch the short trades, times and lots........ no manually setups, just pure H/G/M System.....

this is within my $10 account, pip steps are 25..... just to show the Martiangale behaviour

so this should be it about the fat tail hopefully

No mate, what leverage you at? 50: 1

What you have is: Serious problem (grid) x 50 x martingale

Don't believe me. Just watch it fail. When it does. Come back read all of this again. I've spent the last 3 years or so trying to solve a problem you just doubled up on.

Quick technical knowledge check.

I want to sell $10 000 worth of eurusd, gbpusd and usdchf, what are my lot sizes on mini account?

If you can't answer that then your kurtosis problems are bigger than you don't realize.

100k=1Lot so 10k is 0.1 lot within the market..... for your account do the math on your own
discussion ends here for me........ good luck and hope you have enough time to watch this awaiting the account/system failure......
if anyone is interested drop me an internal mail please, getting tired

Aside from being a busy soccer mom, I attend pilates and therapy sessions, and i have learned that when something irritates me that i need to first look at myself and look less at others or maybe i just need to change the channel.

tradecopier, your work is interesting and entertaining. keep it coming. sp.

Thanks Sherry,
wish you an nice weekend and lots of goals ;-)
Dirk

tradecopier, I am enjoying following your work, aside from mr very rude knowitall that keeps sticking his unfriendly nose in here.. can you block him/her/whatever? we have another soccer mom that reminds me of this one, she knows everything about soccer and she will tell you everything about soccer, whether you want to hear it or not, but she never plays soccer. ps.. my uncle has his program spitting out orders for that inverse method, it sure is fun watching it. but i never understand anything that man says, every other word is giga or nano or sector or who knows, it might as well be in chinese. have a nice weekend. sp.

Sherry,

I went to quite a bit of trouble to explain the problem. You don't want to hear it fine. Fact is that problem needs to be understood by anyone who is going trade fx with any measure of success.

   TheCyclist posted:
   Sherry,

I went to quite a bit of trouble to explain the problem. You don't want to hear it fine. Fact is that problem needs to be understood by anyone who is going trade fx with any measure of success.

1) Hints have been dropped to you, several times, that your advices are perhaps less than solicited.
2) Perhaps start your own topic and then you can teach others at your pace.


sp.

Hmmm... 25% a month equals roughly 1,355% p.a. On my capital I could have all the money in the world in 2-3 years.

Unfortunately for the OP, if it was as easy as running a grid with some martingaling, then guys like Cyclist and me would already be owning most of the money in the world. Unfortunately for both of us, sooner or later a martingale betting method will encounter a string of losses and this can destroy an account quickly.

Unless you take a long hard look at the risk you are running, sooner or later it will catch up to you. If you have lived through 2008 with a heavily leveraged account, then you will know exactly what I am talking about.

trixifx posted:
Hmmm... 25% a month equals roughly 1,355% p.a. On my capital I could have all the money in the world in 2-3 years.
Unfortunately for the OP

if god had meant for man to fly, he would have given to us wings, but instead he gave to us two feet. Unfortunately for those wright brothers... blah blah blah..

again, tradecopier, i am thoroghly enjoying following your work and i suggest to any others that do not enjoy following it that perhaps they might refrain from following it and that they might find something productive to do with their time?

sp.