Excellent Research Material For All Fundamental Traders
Участник с May 16, 2011
35 комментариев
May 16, 2011 at 06:27
The ECB’s three mistakes in the Greek crisis and how to get sovereign debt right in the future
Jeffrey Frankel
16 May 2011
Print Email
Comment Republish
It is a year since Greece was bailed out by EU and IMF and there are many who label it a failure. This column says that while there is plenty of blame to go around, there were three big mistakes made by the European Central Bank. Number one: Letting Greece join the euro in the first place
By now just about everybody agrees that the European bailout of Greece has failed (see for example Darvas et al. 2011). The debt will have to be restructured. As has been evident for well over a year, it is not possible to think of a plausible combination of Greek budget balance, sovereign risk premium, and economic growth rates that imply anything other than an explosive path for the future ratio of debt to GDP.
There is plenty of blame to go around. But three big mistakes can be attributed to the European leadership. This includes the ECB – surprisingly, in that it has otherwise been the most competent and successful of Europe-wide institutions.
•Mistake number 1: The decision in 2000 to admit Greece in the Eurozone.
Greece was an outlier, geographically and economically. It did not come close to meeting the Maastricht Criteria, particularly the 3% ceiling on the budget deficit as a share of GDP. No doubt most Greeks would agree with the judgment that they would be much better off today if they were outside the euro, free to devalue and restore their lost competitiveness.
•Mistake number 2: Allowing the interest rate spreads on sovereign bonds issued by Greece (and other periphery countries) to fall almost to zero during the period 2002-2007.
Despite budget deficits and debt levels that far exceeded the limits of the Stability and Growth Pact, Greece was able to borrow almost as easily as Germany. Part of the blame belongs to international investors who grossly underestimated risk on all sorts of assets during this period (Frankel 2007). And part of the blame belongs to the rating agencies who, as usual, have been lagging indicators of European debt troubles, rather than leading indicators. But in this case, both groups might justify their attitudes by pointing out that the ECB accepted Greek debt as collateral, on a par with German debt.
•The third mistake was the failure to send Greece to the IMF early in the crisis.
By January 2010 the need should have been clear. Rather than going into shock, leaders in Frankfurt and Brussels could have welcomed the Greek crisis as a useful opportunity to establish a precedent for the long-term life of the euro (see Frankel 2010).
The idea that such a problem would eventually arise somewhere in the Eurozone cannot have come as a surprise. After all, why had the architects written the Maastricht fiscal criteria and the No Bailout Clause (1991) and the Stability and Growth Pact (1997)? Sceptical German taxpayers believed that, before the project was done, they would be asked to bail out some profligate Mediterranean country. European elites adopted the fiscal rules precisely to combat these fears.
When the rules failed and the crisis came, the leaders should have thanked their lucky stars that the first test case had arisen in a country that met two characteristics admirably.
•First, the Greek government had broken the rules so egregiously and so frequently that Europe’s leaders could, with a clear conscience, judge a firm stand to be merited.
The only alternative was to risk establishing the precedent that all governments are ultimately to be bailed out all the time, with all the moral hazard headaches that precedent implies.
•Second, the Greek economy was small enough to make it feasible for Europe to come up with the funds necessary to insulate others, who were vulnerable to contagion but not as blameworthy, for example Ireland.
European leaders also should have thanked their stars that the IMF exists. Instead of acting as if such a crisis had never been seen before, they should have realised that imposing policy conditionality in rescue loan packages is precisely the IMF’s job. International politics is less likely to prevent the IMF from enforcing painful fiscal retrenchment and other difficult conditions than it is among regional neighbours or other political allies. Europe is no different in this respect than Latin America or Asia. Even the need to include in the package substantial funds from regional powers on top of IMF money, subject to the same IMF conditionality, should have been recognised as familiar from big emerging-market crises such as those of the 1990s.
But the reaction of leaders in both Frankfurt and Brussels was that going to the IMF was unthinkable, that this was a problem to be settled within Europe. They chose to play for time instead, to treat insolvency as illiquidity (see Darvas et al. 2011). Against all evidence – and despite a decade of Stability and Growth Pact violations – they still wish to believe that they can impose fiscal discipline on member states. Despite two decades in which citizens of Germany and other European countries have expressed clearly that they do not share their leaders’ enthusiasm for Economic and Monetary Union (O’Rourke 2011), the latter apparently still wish to believe that further progress to political and fiscal union is possible. The Economic and Monetary Union has long since become an ostrich, burying its head in the sand.
It turned out that the German taxpayers were right all along. How, in light of that democratic deficit, can anyone think that Europe is ready for a transfer union?
Solutions looking forward
The three mistakes now lie in the past. How can Europe’s fiscal regime be reformed to avoid future repeats? The reforms in train are not credible. (“We are going to make the fiscal rules more explicit and make sure to monitor them more tightly next time” – see for example Thygesen 2011). But it is not too late to apply the lesson of mistake number two – the ECB policy of accepting the assets of all member states as collateral.
My proposal:
•The Eurozone should adopt a rule that whenever a country violates the fiscal criterion of the Pact (say, a budget deficit in excess of 3% of GDP, structurally adjusted), the ECB must stop accepting that government’s debt as collateral.
This system would achieve the elusive objective of true automaticity. If a country exceeded the threshold for justifiable reasons, such as natural disaster or war, the private markets could perceive that and impose little or no default-risk premium. No judgment of the merits by bureaucrats or politicians would be required. More likely, for periphery countries, the result of such a re-classification would be the re-emergence of sovereign spreads of moderate magnitudes, in between the extremes of the 2002-2007 lows and the 2009-2011 highs. The interest rate premium would send a message far more credibly, forcefully, and promptly than any warning that any Brussels bureaucracy will ever turn out.
This is how it works among the US states and municipalities (Bayoumi et al. 1995). Despite the absence of their own currencies, the recurrence of dysfunctional local politics and excessive deficits, and even a history of state defaults in the 19th century, federal bailouts are not delivered and not expected. Without some such device, the new European Stability Mechanism is in danger of becoming a mechanism for instability.
References
Bayoumi, Tamim, Morris Goldstein and Geoffrey Woglom (1995), 'Do Credit Markets Discipline Sovereign Borrowers? Evidence from the US States', Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 27(4):1046-1059, November.
Darvas, Zsolt, Jean Pisani-Ferry, André Sapir (2011), “A comprehensive solution for the euro crisis”, VoxEU.org, 28 February.
Frankel, J (2007), “Responding to Crises”, Cato Journal 27(2), Spring/Summer.
Frankel, J (2010), “Let Greece Go to the IMF”, Jeff Frankels Weblog, 11 February.
O’Rourke, Kevin (2011), “A Tale of Two Trilemmas”, Challenge of Europe session, at the Institute for New Economic Thinking 2011 Annual Conference, Bretton Woods, 10 April.
Thygesen, Niels (2011), “Governance in the Euro Area”, INET 2011 Annual Conference, 10 April.
This article may be reproduced with appropriate attribution. See Copyright (below).
Jeffrey Frankel
16 May 2011
Print Email
Comment Republish
It is a year since Greece was bailed out by EU and IMF and there are many who label it a failure. This column says that while there is plenty of blame to go around, there were three big mistakes made by the European Central Bank. Number one: Letting Greece join the euro in the first place
By now just about everybody agrees that the European bailout of Greece has failed (see for example Darvas et al. 2011). The debt will have to be restructured. As has been evident for well over a year, it is not possible to think of a plausible combination of Greek budget balance, sovereign risk premium, and economic growth rates that imply anything other than an explosive path for the future ratio of debt to GDP.
There is plenty of blame to go around. But three big mistakes can be attributed to the European leadership. This includes the ECB – surprisingly, in that it has otherwise been the most competent and successful of Europe-wide institutions.
•Mistake number 1: The decision in 2000 to admit Greece in the Eurozone.
Greece was an outlier, geographically and economically. It did not come close to meeting the Maastricht Criteria, particularly the 3% ceiling on the budget deficit as a share of GDP. No doubt most Greeks would agree with the judgment that they would be much better off today if they were outside the euro, free to devalue and restore their lost competitiveness.
•Mistake number 2: Allowing the interest rate spreads on sovereign bonds issued by Greece (and other periphery countries) to fall almost to zero during the period 2002-2007.
Despite budget deficits and debt levels that far exceeded the limits of the Stability and Growth Pact, Greece was able to borrow almost as easily as Germany. Part of the blame belongs to international investors who grossly underestimated risk on all sorts of assets during this period (Frankel 2007). And part of the blame belongs to the rating agencies who, as usual, have been lagging indicators of European debt troubles, rather than leading indicators. But in this case, both groups might justify their attitudes by pointing out that the ECB accepted Greek debt as collateral, on a par with German debt.
•The third mistake was the failure to send Greece to the IMF early in the crisis.
By January 2010 the need should have been clear. Rather than going into shock, leaders in Frankfurt and Brussels could have welcomed the Greek crisis as a useful opportunity to establish a precedent for the long-term life of the euro (see Frankel 2010).
The idea that such a problem would eventually arise somewhere in the Eurozone cannot have come as a surprise. After all, why had the architects written the Maastricht fiscal criteria and the No Bailout Clause (1991) and the Stability and Growth Pact (1997)? Sceptical German taxpayers believed that, before the project was done, they would be asked to bail out some profligate Mediterranean country. European elites adopted the fiscal rules precisely to combat these fears.
When the rules failed and the crisis came, the leaders should have thanked their lucky stars that the first test case had arisen in a country that met two characteristics admirably.
•First, the Greek government had broken the rules so egregiously and so frequently that Europe’s leaders could, with a clear conscience, judge a firm stand to be merited.
The only alternative was to risk establishing the precedent that all governments are ultimately to be bailed out all the time, with all the moral hazard headaches that precedent implies.
•Second, the Greek economy was small enough to make it feasible for Europe to come up with the funds necessary to insulate others, who were vulnerable to contagion but not as blameworthy, for example Ireland.
European leaders also should have thanked their stars that the IMF exists. Instead of acting as if such a crisis had never been seen before, they should have realised that imposing policy conditionality in rescue loan packages is precisely the IMF’s job. International politics is less likely to prevent the IMF from enforcing painful fiscal retrenchment and other difficult conditions than it is among regional neighbours or other political allies. Europe is no different in this respect than Latin America or Asia. Even the need to include in the package substantial funds from regional powers on top of IMF money, subject to the same IMF conditionality, should have been recognised as familiar from big emerging-market crises such as those of the 1990s.
But the reaction of leaders in both Frankfurt and Brussels was that going to the IMF was unthinkable, that this was a problem to be settled within Europe. They chose to play for time instead, to treat insolvency as illiquidity (see Darvas et al. 2011). Against all evidence – and despite a decade of Stability and Growth Pact violations – they still wish to believe that they can impose fiscal discipline on member states. Despite two decades in which citizens of Germany and other European countries have expressed clearly that they do not share their leaders’ enthusiasm for Economic and Monetary Union (O’Rourke 2011), the latter apparently still wish to believe that further progress to political and fiscal union is possible. The Economic and Monetary Union has long since become an ostrich, burying its head in the sand.
It turned out that the German taxpayers were right all along. How, in light of that democratic deficit, can anyone think that Europe is ready for a transfer union?
Solutions looking forward
The three mistakes now lie in the past. How can Europe’s fiscal regime be reformed to avoid future repeats? The reforms in train are not credible. (“We are going to make the fiscal rules more explicit and make sure to monitor them more tightly next time” – see for example Thygesen 2011). But it is not too late to apply the lesson of mistake number two – the ECB policy of accepting the assets of all member states as collateral.
My proposal:
•The Eurozone should adopt a rule that whenever a country violates the fiscal criterion of the Pact (say, a budget deficit in excess of 3% of GDP, structurally adjusted), the ECB must stop accepting that government’s debt as collateral.
This system would achieve the elusive objective of true automaticity. If a country exceeded the threshold for justifiable reasons, such as natural disaster or war, the private markets could perceive that and impose little or no default-risk premium. No judgment of the merits by bureaucrats or politicians would be required. More likely, for periphery countries, the result of such a re-classification would be the re-emergence of sovereign spreads of moderate magnitudes, in between the extremes of the 2002-2007 lows and the 2009-2011 highs. The interest rate premium would send a message far more credibly, forcefully, and promptly than any warning that any Brussels bureaucracy will ever turn out.
This is how it works among the US states and municipalities (Bayoumi et al. 1995). Despite the absence of their own currencies, the recurrence of dysfunctional local politics and excessive deficits, and even a history of state defaults in the 19th century, federal bailouts are not delivered and not expected. Without some such device, the new European Stability Mechanism is in danger of becoming a mechanism for instability.
References
Bayoumi, Tamim, Morris Goldstein and Geoffrey Woglom (1995), 'Do Credit Markets Discipline Sovereign Borrowers? Evidence from the US States', Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 27(4):1046-1059, November.
Darvas, Zsolt, Jean Pisani-Ferry, André Sapir (2011), “A comprehensive solution for the euro crisis”, VoxEU.org, 28 February.
Frankel, J (2007), “Responding to Crises”, Cato Journal 27(2), Spring/Summer.
Frankel, J (2010), “Let Greece Go to the IMF”, Jeff Frankels Weblog, 11 February.
O’Rourke, Kevin (2011), “A Tale of Two Trilemmas”, Challenge of Europe session, at the Institute for New Economic Thinking 2011 Annual Conference, Bretton Woods, 10 April.
Thygesen, Niels (2011), “Governance in the Euro Area”, INET 2011 Annual Conference, 10 April.
This article may be reproduced with appropriate attribution. See Copyright (below).
Участник с May 16, 2011
35 комментариев
May 16, 2011 at 06:38
Участник с Jan 14, 2010
2299 комментариев
May 16, 2011 at 06:50
sniff, sniff ... Bruce ?
Участник с May 16, 2011
35 комментариев
May 16, 2011 at 12:34
Chikot posted:
sniff, sniff ... Bruce ?
Good Day
Thanks for posting the link on Oanda. I am not posting there for the moment. Have a good day and try to do the right thing in your life and your life will move forward.
Участник с May 16, 2011
35 комментариев
May 16, 2011 at 13:08
Here is some good research to understand.
Monday, 16 May 2011Chinese Growth on a Mountain of US Debt
Americans must be the most gullible simpletons in the world. They will believe anything. No fantasy is too absurd. No lie is too ridiculous. Much of what they now take for granted an earlier generation would have taken for preposterous, outrageous, and criminal.
According to presidential candidate Donald Trump they are prepared to believe that China is to blame for their financial problems... No kidding. When asked what he'd do to fix the US economy, 'The Donald' says he'd 'get tough with China.'
What dastardly thing are the Chinese doing? What devious, underhanded act are they committing?
Ah ha! An act of commerce! They're delivering quality products to America at discount prices! Trump says he'll slap a 25% tariff on Chinese-made goods.
How exactly this would be better for Americans he didn't explain. Says our old friend Grover Norquist:
'Tariffs are not paid by the Chinese. They're paid by Americans who buy things made by the Chinese.'
Americans are barely able to keep up with their expenses already; raising prices wouldn't do them any favor that we can see.
But in the US, crackpot ideas are as common as democrats.
In the '90s, Americans thought they could get rich by buying companies that weren't earning any money. Then, they thought they could get rich by buying a house. When that went bad, they whined for bailouts and handouts. And now they think the feds are helping them by printing more money. Honestly, you can't make this stuff up!
But their delusions don't stop there. They also believe that for the last 10 years the world's only super-power has been at war with 372 Muslim extremists. And that somehow we'll be safer if we let TSA agents grope our grandmothers and pat down our toddlers.
And how about this? It is obvious to the whole world that US Commander- in-Chief Obama ordered a hit squad to disappear Osama bin Laden; but in the USA, people think the SEALs were conducting a heroic military operation.
And they dumped his body in the ocean because they didn't want to offend the Muslim brotherhood.
You have to like people who would believe something like that. They're loveable half-wits...earnest morons with the skeptical intelligence of a puppy.
Nor does it bother them that their national financial plan is a calamity. Everyone who has thought about it for more than a second realizes that the secret to gaining wealth is to make money...save it...and invest it in new and more productive business opportunities.
And yet, the government's financial strategy for 4 decades has been to encourage consumer spending and borrowing, a program that is sure to lead to poverty.
This strategy did not boost real economic growth in the US. But it did wonders for China. We are now on a plane, en route to Shanghai from Beijing. China is supposed to be a poor country. But there is no evidence of it so far.
Instead, there are automobiles, highways, skyscrapers - as far as the eye can see. Factories by the thousands. Warehouses. Docks and freight yards. Plants. Mills. Apartment blocks that New York would be proud of. Office towers that Baltimore would envy. Trains. Loading platforms. Bridges. Storage yards. Assembly units. Round buildings. Square buildings. Rectangles. Ovals. Low rise. High rise. The scale of activity is breathtaking. And we haven't reached Shanghai yet.
Is there any description of China that doesn't end in 'st'? It has the biggest, newest, most daring and innovative buildings. It has the fastest trains...the most roads and cars. The richest. The poorest. It has everything.
It has people too... Smart, hardworking people. Instead of borrowing to boost their standards of living, the Chinese save their money in order to reduce their standard of living...boost the next generation's.
The Chinese have already pulled off a miracle. It has only been 32 years since Deng Xiaoping opened up China to making money. In that time, the nation has gone from a third world dump to the world's 2nd largest economy...whose growth rate continues to be shocking.
What's their secret? China is a zombie-free zone. The 'safety net' is thin here. There is plenty of corruption and inside dealing, no doubt. But people work hard...save their money...and expect to live by their own efforts.
But the Chinese have gotten a lot of help from America. The feds encouraged Americans to buy things they didn't need with money they didn't have. The Chinese merely took the orders...and the money. Now they have the biggest stash of dollars in the world, while the US has the biggest, stinkiest pile of debt the world has ever seen.
And more thoughts...
We have just had our best airport and hotel experiences ever. Arriving at our hotel - the China World Hotel in Beijing - the staff again met us at the entrance. They greeted us by name and showed us directly to our rooms. There was no waiting to check-in. There were no lines. There were no incompetent or surly flunkeys.
Then, we drove to the huge Beijing airport - the largest in the world. There, uniformed airline employees met us at the curb...took our luggage...and whisked us through the check-in security process. The whole thing took only minutes, with almost no waiting at any step. It was a pleasure.
*** 'You haven't seen the real China,' one of our Dear Readers who has lived in China for many years explained. 'You're just looking at the top cities. It would be like going to the US and only visiting New York and San Francisco. You wouldn't have a very good idea of what the country is like.
'If you go out to some of these second and third tier cities, you get another picture all together. They're pretty grim. And poor. And there are still millions of people who earn almost nothing.
'These poor people keep coming to the cities to find work. The government knows it has to keep the economy growing so that these people don't become a problem. But so far, I've been very impressed. The people running the country may be communists, but they're not stupid. And to tell you the truth, this is a much better system than we have in America.
'I don't know why the US would want to push democracy on the whole world. And I don't know why Hillary Clinton would want to lecture China about human rights either. China isn't intentionally killing people. China doesn't have troops in other countries. China is minding its own business...and building its economy - just like America used to do.
'And not having a democracy is really a good thing. A benign dictatorship can make the kind of changes you need to make. That's what they do here. They can do things that require huge capital investments but only pay off far in the future. They can do things that are unpopular, because they don't have to stand for election every 4 years.
'That's why the US is such a mess. We're digging ourselves a deeper and deeper hole each year. But nobody can stop it. Because every member of Congress has to face the voters. And the people who vote are also the people who benefit from government spending - especially teachers and retirees. So you can't fix the problem. It just gets worse and worse until it falls apart.
'Democracy is very overrated.'
Posted by NT at 22:08
Link
https://ntopinion.blogspot.com/
Monday, 16 May 2011Chinese Growth on a Mountain of US Debt
Americans must be the most gullible simpletons in the world. They will believe anything. No fantasy is too absurd. No lie is too ridiculous. Much of what they now take for granted an earlier generation would have taken for preposterous, outrageous, and criminal.
According to presidential candidate Donald Trump they are prepared to believe that China is to blame for their financial problems... No kidding. When asked what he'd do to fix the US economy, 'The Donald' says he'd 'get tough with China.'
What dastardly thing are the Chinese doing? What devious, underhanded act are they committing?
Ah ha! An act of commerce! They're delivering quality products to America at discount prices! Trump says he'll slap a 25% tariff on Chinese-made goods.
How exactly this would be better for Americans he didn't explain. Says our old friend Grover Norquist:
'Tariffs are not paid by the Chinese. They're paid by Americans who buy things made by the Chinese.'
Americans are barely able to keep up with their expenses already; raising prices wouldn't do them any favor that we can see.
But in the US, crackpot ideas are as common as democrats.
In the '90s, Americans thought they could get rich by buying companies that weren't earning any money. Then, they thought they could get rich by buying a house. When that went bad, they whined for bailouts and handouts. And now they think the feds are helping them by printing more money. Honestly, you can't make this stuff up!
But their delusions don't stop there. They also believe that for the last 10 years the world's only super-power has been at war with 372 Muslim extremists. And that somehow we'll be safer if we let TSA agents grope our grandmothers and pat down our toddlers.
And how about this? It is obvious to the whole world that US Commander- in-Chief Obama ordered a hit squad to disappear Osama bin Laden; but in the USA, people think the SEALs were conducting a heroic military operation.
And they dumped his body in the ocean because they didn't want to offend the Muslim brotherhood.
You have to like people who would believe something like that. They're loveable half-wits...earnest morons with the skeptical intelligence of a puppy.
Nor does it bother them that their national financial plan is a calamity. Everyone who has thought about it for more than a second realizes that the secret to gaining wealth is to make money...save it...and invest it in new and more productive business opportunities.
And yet, the government's financial strategy for 4 decades has been to encourage consumer spending and borrowing, a program that is sure to lead to poverty.
This strategy did not boost real economic growth in the US. But it did wonders for China. We are now on a plane, en route to Shanghai from Beijing. China is supposed to be a poor country. But there is no evidence of it so far.
Instead, there are automobiles, highways, skyscrapers - as far as the eye can see. Factories by the thousands. Warehouses. Docks and freight yards. Plants. Mills. Apartment blocks that New York would be proud of. Office towers that Baltimore would envy. Trains. Loading platforms. Bridges. Storage yards. Assembly units. Round buildings. Square buildings. Rectangles. Ovals. Low rise. High rise. The scale of activity is breathtaking. And we haven't reached Shanghai yet.
Is there any description of China that doesn't end in 'st'? It has the biggest, newest, most daring and innovative buildings. It has the fastest trains...the most roads and cars. The richest. The poorest. It has everything.
It has people too... Smart, hardworking people. Instead of borrowing to boost their standards of living, the Chinese save their money in order to reduce their standard of living...boost the next generation's.
The Chinese have already pulled off a miracle. It has only been 32 years since Deng Xiaoping opened up China to making money. In that time, the nation has gone from a third world dump to the world's 2nd largest economy...whose growth rate continues to be shocking.
What's their secret? China is a zombie-free zone. The 'safety net' is thin here. There is plenty of corruption and inside dealing, no doubt. But people work hard...save their money...and expect to live by their own efforts.
But the Chinese have gotten a lot of help from America. The feds encouraged Americans to buy things they didn't need with money they didn't have. The Chinese merely took the orders...and the money. Now they have the biggest stash of dollars in the world, while the US has the biggest, stinkiest pile of debt the world has ever seen.
And more thoughts...
We have just had our best airport and hotel experiences ever. Arriving at our hotel - the China World Hotel in Beijing - the staff again met us at the entrance. They greeted us by name and showed us directly to our rooms. There was no waiting to check-in. There were no lines. There were no incompetent or surly flunkeys.
Then, we drove to the huge Beijing airport - the largest in the world. There, uniformed airline employees met us at the curb...took our luggage...and whisked us through the check-in security process. The whole thing took only minutes, with almost no waiting at any step. It was a pleasure.
*** 'You haven't seen the real China,' one of our Dear Readers who has lived in China for many years explained. 'You're just looking at the top cities. It would be like going to the US and only visiting New York and San Francisco. You wouldn't have a very good idea of what the country is like.
'If you go out to some of these second and third tier cities, you get another picture all together. They're pretty grim. And poor. And there are still millions of people who earn almost nothing.
'These poor people keep coming to the cities to find work. The government knows it has to keep the economy growing so that these people don't become a problem. But so far, I've been very impressed. The people running the country may be communists, but they're not stupid. And to tell you the truth, this is a much better system than we have in America.
'I don't know why the US would want to push democracy on the whole world. And I don't know why Hillary Clinton would want to lecture China about human rights either. China isn't intentionally killing people. China doesn't have troops in other countries. China is minding its own business...and building its economy - just like America used to do.
'And not having a democracy is really a good thing. A benign dictatorship can make the kind of changes you need to make. That's what they do here. They can do things that require huge capital investments but only pay off far in the future. They can do things that are unpopular, because they don't have to stand for election every 4 years.
'That's why the US is such a mess. We're digging ourselves a deeper and deeper hole each year. But nobody can stop it. Because every member of Congress has to face the voters. And the people who vote are also the people who benefit from government spending - especially teachers and retirees. So you can't fix the problem. It just gets worse and worse until it falls apart.
'Democracy is very overrated.'
Posted by NT at 22:08
Link
https://ntopinion.blogspot.com/
Участник с May 16, 2011
35 комментариев
May 16, 2011 at 13:22
Another Important Item To Read and Understand.
https://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703864204576317612323790964.html
Snippet:
By JAMES FREEMAN
'A financial crisis is surely going to happen as big or bigger than the one we had in 2008 if we continue to behave the way we're behaving,' says Stanley Druckenmiller, the legendary investor and onetime fund manager for George Soros. Is this another warning from Wall Street that Congress must immediately raise the federal debt limit to prevent the end of civilization?
No—Mr. Druckenmiller has heard enough of such 'clamor and hyperbole.' The grave danger he sees is that politicians might give the government authority to borrow beyond the current limit of $14.3 trillion without any conditions to control spending.
One of the world's most successful money managers, the lanky, sandy-haired Mr. Druckenmiller is so concerned about the government's ability to pay for its future obligations that he's willing to accept a temporary delay in the interest payments he's owed on his U.S. Treasury bonds—if the result is a Washington deal to restrain runaway entitlement costs.
'I think technical default would be horrible,' he says from the 24th floor of his midtown Manhattan office, 'but I don't think it's going to be the end of the world. It's not going to be catastrophic. What's going to be catastrophic is if we don't solve the real problem,' meaning Washington's spending addiction.
View Full Image
Terry Shoffner
.Widely credited with orchestrating Mr. Soros's successful shorting of the British pound in 1992, Mr. Druckenmiller also built his own fund, Duquesne Capital, into a $12 billion titan. He announced plans last year to close the fund and now reports, 'I have no clients.' He is still managing his own money, which Forbes magazine recently estimated at $2.5 billion.
Whatever the correct figure is, it would be significantly larger if Mr. Druckenmiller hadn't given away so much of his wealth. The online magazine Slate reported last year that Mr. Druckenmiller and his wife gave away more money in 2009—over $700 million—than anyone else in the country. Over the last two decades, he has been the largest benefactor of the Harlem Children's Zone, a community service organization featured in the movie, 'Waiting for 'Superman.''
Mary Kissel of the editorial board previews congressional action on the debt limit.
.It's hard to think of someone with more expertise in the currency and government-debt markets, but Mr. Druckenmiller's view on the debt limit bumps up against virtually the entire Wall Street-Washington financial establishment. A recent note on behalf of giant banks on the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee warned of a 'severe and long-lasting impact' if the debt limit is not raised immediately. The letter compared the resulting chaos to the failure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and warned of a run on money-market funds. This week more than 60 trade associations, representing virtually all of American big business, forecast 'a massive spike in borrowing costs.'
On Thursday Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke raised the specter of a market crisis similar to the one that followed the 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. As usual, the most aggressive predictor of doom in the absence of increased government spending has been Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. In a May 2 letter to House Speaker John Boehner, Mr. Geithner warned of 'a catastrophic economic impact' and said, 'Default would cause a financial crisis potentially more severe than the crisis from which we are only now starting to recover.'
In a Monday speech at the New York Economic Club, Mr. Boehner fired back, saying that 'It's true that allowing America to default would be irresponsible. But it would be more irresponsible to raise the debt ceiling without simultaneously taking dramatic steps to reduce spending and reform the budget process.'
So the moment couldn't be better to consult Mr. Druckenmiller, who almost never gives interviews but is willing to speak up now because he thinks that fears about using the debt-limit as a bargaining chip for spending cuts are overblown—and misunderstand the bond market. 'The Treasury borrowing committee letter speaks about catastrophic financial crises, comparing it to Fannie and Freddie. That's not what we're talking about here,' he says.
He contemplates the possibilities for bond investors if a drawn-out negotiation in Washington creates a short-term problem in servicing the debt but ultimately reduces spending:
'Here are your two options: piece of paper number one—let's just call it a 10-year Treasury. So I own this piece of paper. I get an income stream obviously over 10 years . . . and one of my interest payments is going to be delayed, I don't know, six days, eight days, 15 days, but I know I'm going to get it. There's not a doubt in my mind that it's not going to pay, but it's going to be delayed. But in exchange for that, let's suppose I know I'm going to get massive cuts in entitlements and the government is going to get their house in order so my payments seven, eight, nine, 10 years out are much more assured,' he says.
https://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703864204576317612323790964.html
Snippet:
By JAMES FREEMAN
'A financial crisis is surely going to happen as big or bigger than the one we had in 2008 if we continue to behave the way we're behaving,' says Stanley Druckenmiller, the legendary investor and onetime fund manager for George Soros. Is this another warning from Wall Street that Congress must immediately raise the federal debt limit to prevent the end of civilization?
No—Mr. Druckenmiller has heard enough of such 'clamor and hyperbole.' The grave danger he sees is that politicians might give the government authority to borrow beyond the current limit of $14.3 trillion without any conditions to control spending.
One of the world's most successful money managers, the lanky, sandy-haired Mr. Druckenmiller is so concerned about the government's ability to pay for its future obligations that he's willing to accept a temporary delay in the interest payments he's owed on his U.S. Treasury bonds—if the result is a Washington deal to restrain runaway entitlement costs.
'I think technical default would be horrible,' he says from the 24th floor of his midtown Manhattan office, 'but I don't think it's going to be the end of the world. It's not going to be catastrophic. What's going to be catastrophic is if we don't solve the real problem,' meaning Washington's spending addiction.
View Full Image
Terry Shoffner
.Widely credited with orchestrating Mr. Soros's successful shorting of the British pound in 1992, Mr. Druckenmiller also built his own fund, Duquesne Capital, into a $12 billion titan. He announced plans last year to close the fund and now reports, 'I have no clients.' He is still managing his own money, which Forbes magazine recently estimated at $2.5 billion.
Whatever the correct figure is, it would be significantly larger if Mr. Druckenmiller hadn't given away so much of his wealth. The online magazine Slate reported last year that Mr. Druckenmiller and his wife gave away more money in 2009—over $700 million—than anyone else in the country. Over the last two decades, he has been the largest benefactor of the Harlem Children's Zone, a community service organization featured in the movie, 'Waiting for 'Superman.''
Mary Kissel of the editorial board previews congressional action on the debt limit.
.It's hard to think of someone with more expertise in the currency and government-debt markets, but Mr. Druckenmiller's view on the debt limit bumps up against virtually the entire Wall Street-Washington financial establishment. A recent note on behalf of giant banks on the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee warned of a 'severe and long-lasting impact' if the debt limit is not raised immediately. The letter compared the resulting chaos to the failure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and warned of a run on money-market funds. This week more than 60 trade associations, representing virtually all of American big business, forecast 'a massive spike in borrowing costs.'
On Thursday Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke raised the specter of a market crisis similar to the one that followed the 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. As usual, the most aggressive predictor of doom in the absence of increased government spending has been Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. In a May 2 letter to House Speaker John Boehner, Mr. Geithner warned of 'a catastrophic economic impact' and said, 'Default would cause a financial crisis potentially more severe than the crisis from which we are only now starting to recover.'
In a Monday speech at the New York Economic Club, Mr. Boehner fired back, saying that 'It's true that allowing America to default would be irresponsible. But it would be more irresponsible to raise the debt ceiling without simultaneously taking dramatic steps to reduce spending and reform the budget process.'
So the moment couldn't be better to consult Mr. Druckenmiller, who almost never gives interviews but is willing to speak up now because he thinks that fears about using the debt-limit as a bargaining chip for spending cuts are overblown—and misunderstand the bond market. 'The Treasury borrowing committee letter speaks about catastrophic financial crises, comparing it to Fannie and Freddie. That's not what we're talking about here,' he says.
He contemplates the possibilities for bond investors if a drawn-out negotiation in Washington creates a short-term problem in servicing the debt but ultimately reduces spending:
'Here are your two options: piece of paper number one—let's just call it a 10-year Treasury. So I own this piece of paper. I get an income stream obviously over 10 years . . . and one of my interest payments is going to be delayed, I don't know, six days, eight days, 15 days, but I know I'm going to get it. There's not a doubt in my mind that it's not going to pay, but it's going to be delayed. But in exchange for that, let's suppose I know I'm going to get massive cuts in entitlements and the government is going to get their house in order so my payments seven, eight, nine, 10 years out are much more assured,' he says.
forex_trader_27988
Участник с Jan 26, 2011
1367 комментариев
May 17, 2011 at 03:40
forexweiner,
umm, excuse me, i mean, ummm, bruce, ummm, errr, duhhh, phknut, dink...
bruce, stop the bullshit now.
you are not a trader.
you are running some kind of a scam.
you do not trade.
oh wait, excuse me, you made two or three lucky trades on a demo money game contest.
oh my gawd whoopie.
let me collect my self, i just fell off of my chair.
I HEREBY WARN ANY PERSON READING THIS TO NEVER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES TO EVER FOR ANY REASON GIVE TO MR BRUCE WARREN MARGOLESE SO MUCH AS A SINGLE THIN PENNY.
THERE IS ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WARNING.
YOU MAY GIVE TO HIM A PENNY IF YOU COLLECT TWO PENNIES AS A SECURITY DEPOSIT.
DINK/.
https://brucecon.blogspot.com
umm, excuse me, i mean, ummm, bruce, ummm, errr, duhhh, phknut, dink...
bruce, stop the bullshit now.
you are not a trader.
you are running some kind of a scam.
you do not trade.
oh wait, excuse me, you made two or three lucky trades on a demo money game contest.
oh my gawd whoopie.
let me collect my self, i just fell off of my chair.
I HEREBY WARN ANY PERSON READING THIS TO NEVER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES TO EVER FOR ANY REASON GIVE TO MR BRUCE WARREN MARGOLESE SO MUCH AS A SINGLE THIN PENNY.
THERE IS ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WARNING.
YOU MAY GIVE TO HIM A PENNY IF YOU COLLECT TWO PENNIES AS A SECURITY DEPOSIT.
DINK/.
https://brucecon.blogspot.com
Участник с May 16, 2011
35 комментариев
May 17, 2011 at 12:30
Bruce Margolese Professional Con Artist
Friday, October 26, 2007
Everybody is getting rich thanks to me: Bruce Margolese
He showed me around his penthouse apartment. His apartment was on the top floor of this modern high rise. 'I am a commodities broker. You know what that is?' I shook my head no. 'I make millions for my investors. They love me.'
He showed me his Large Screen TV and satellite system. He then started showing me the x-rated channels which did not interest me in the least but it seemed to turn him on after all at 60 years old if you can get turned on by that then I say 'Good for you.'
He told me he is expanding his company and would love it if I would join. I needed the work so I of course agreed. If I was a smart man I would have read the information about Bruce Margolese at Rip-off Report. He has a few things about him also written here. Or even Oanda has some stuff about him and how he lies to keep his con going on. I wanted to take the word of Bruce Margolese and I had no reason to doubt who he was. But if you ask simple question Like'Bruce what were you doing before you were a commodities broker' you would realize it was one con job after another and you were next on the path.
Posted by The_Bruce_Margolese_Con at 9:01 PM 1 comments Wednesday, July 11, 2007
The Bruce Margolese Story
I met Bruce many, many years ago. At first I thought he was intelligent and very good looking. He spoke in a way that made you hang on his every word. He spoke with such confidence, every word out of his mouth was a fact and there was no way to doubt what he was saying.
Ed introduced me to Bruce at Deli Guys; a deli that Bruce seemed to have a tab with because at the end of our meal Bruce told Eddie and myself that he was covering our meal and told the waitress 'Just put the meals on my tab ask Solly about it. Tell him the BMW's tab, the name is Bruce W. Margolese. The W is for wealth' I was impressed.
During our meal Bruce kept talking about how much money he made and had. It was all so impressive, if you like that sort of thing.
'This is my 3rd business in 5 years, I sold my last business for $10 million.' He told me as he shoved a piece of his kaiser roll into his mouth. He continued talking with his mouth still chewing the bread, 'I got this $70,000 photocopier that makes great colour photographs. I didn't have to spend a dime on it. The company gave it to me to try.'
My father had always told me to believe half of what a man tells you. In Bruce's case I think it would be a lot less than that.
Friday, October 26, 2007
Everybody is getting rich thanks to me: Bruce Margolese
He showed me around his penthouse apartment. His apartment was on the top floor of this modern high rise. 'I am a commodities broker. You know what that is?' I shook my head no. 'I make millions for my investors. They love me.'
He showed me his Large Screen TV and satellite system. He then started showing me the x-rated channels which did not interest me in the least but it seemed to turn him on after all at 60 years old if you can get turned on by that then I say 'Good for you.'
He told me he is expanding his company and would love it if I would join. I needed the work so I of course agreed. If I was a smart man I would have read the information about Bruce Margolese at Rip-off Report. He has a few things about him also written here. Or even Oanda has some stuff about him and how he lies to keep his con going on. I wanted to take the word of Bruce Margolese and I had no reason to doubt who he was. But if you ask simple question Like'Bruce what were you doing before you were a commodities broker' you would realize it was one con job after another and you were next on the path.
Posted by The_Bruce_Margolese_Con at 9:01 PM 1 comments Wednesday, July 11, 2007
The Bruce Margolese Story
I met Bruce many, many years ago. At first I thought he was intelligent and very good looking. He spoke in a way that made you hang on his every word. He spoke with such confidence, every word out of his mouth was a fact and there was no way to doubt what he was saying.
Ed introduced me to Bruce at Deli Guys; a deli that Bruce seemed to have a tab with because at the end of our meal Bruce told Eddie and myself that he was covering our meal and told the waitress 'Just put the meals on my tab ask Solly about it. Tell him the BMW's tab, the name is Bruce W. Margolese. The W is for wealth' I was impressed.
During our meal Bruce kept talking about how much money he made and had. It was all so impressive, if you like that sort of thing.
'This is my 3rd business in 5 years, I sold my last business for $10 million.' He told me as he shoved a piece of his kaiser roll into his mouth. He continued talking with his mouth still chewing the bread, 'I got this $70,000 photocopier that makes great colour photographs. I didn't have to spend a dime on it. The company gave it to me to try.'
My father had always told me to believe half of what a man tells you. In Bruce's case I think it would be a lot less than that.
Участник с Jan 14, 2010
2299 комментариев
May 17, 2011 at 23:27
This is very interesting article. However I tend to disagree regarding quality of Chinese goods. The quality is horrible. Since Chinese started making stuff quality went down along with price.
I actually doubt savings on these cheaper Chinese goods. isn't it better to buy good Italian shoes and wear them for few years rather than change Chinese shoes that cannot survive even 1 year.
I am old enough to see how quality deteriorated.
I actually doubt savings on these cheaper Chinese goods. isn't it better to buy good Italian shoes and wear them for few years rather than change Chinese shoes that cannot survive even 1 year.
I am old enough to see how quality deteriorated.
Forexwinner posted:
Here is some good research to understand.
Monday, 16 May 2011Chinese Growth on a Mountain of US Debt
Americans must be the most gullible simpletons in the world. They will believe anything. No fantasy is too absurd. No lie is too ridiculous. Much of what they now take for granted an earlier generation would have taken for preposterous, outrageous, and criminal.
According to presidential candidate Donald Trump they are prepared to believe that China is to blame for their financial problems... No kidding. When asked what he'd do to fix the US economy, 'The Donald' says he'd 'get tough with China.'
What dastardly thing are the Chinese doing? What devious, underhanded act are they committing?
Ah ha! An act of commerce! They're delivering quality products to America at discount prices! Trump says he'll slap a 25% tariff on Chinese-made goods.
How exactly this would be better for Americans he didn't explain. Says our old friend Grover Norquist:
'Tariffs are not paid by the Chinese. They're paid by Americans who buy things made by the Chinese.'
Americans are barely able to keep up with their expenses already; raising prices wouldn't do them any favor that we can see.
But in the US, crackpot ideas are as common as democrats.
In the '90s, Americans thought they could get rich by buying companies that weren't earning any money. Then, they thought they could get rich by buying a house. When that went bad, they whined for bailouts and handouts. And now they think the feds are helping them by printing more money. Honestly, you can't make this stuff up!
But their delusions don't stop there. They also believe that for the last 10 years the world's only super-power has been at war with 372 Muslim extremists. And that somehow we'll be safer if we let TSA agents grope our grandmothers and pat down our toddlers.
And how about this? It is obvious to the whole world that US Commander- in-Chief Obama ordered a hit squad to disappear Osama bin Laden; but in the USA, people think the SEALs were conducting a heroic military operation.
And they dumped his body in the ocean because they didn't want to offend the Muslim brotherhood.
You have to like people who would believe something like that. They're loveable half-wits...earnest morons with the skeptical intelligence of a puppy.
Nor does it bother them that their national financial plan is a calamity. Everyone who has thought about it for more than a second realizes that the secret to gaining wealth is to make money...save it...and invest it in new and more productive business opportunities.
And yet, the government's financial strategy for 4 decades has been to encourage consumer spending and borrowing, a program that is sure to lead to poverty.
This strategy did not boost real economic growth in the US. But it did wonders for China. We are now on a plane, en route to Shanghai from Beijing. China is supposed to be a poor country. But there is no evidence of it so far.
Instead, there are automobiles, highways, skyscrapers - as far as the eye can see. Factories by the thousands. Warehouses. Docks and freight yards. Plants. Mills. Apartment blocks that New York would be proud of. Office towers that Baltimore would envy. Trains. Loading platforms. Bridges. Storage yards. Assembly units. Round buildings. Square buildings. Rectangles. Ovals. Low rise. High rise. The scale of activity is breathtaking. And we haven't reached Shanghai yet.
Is there any description of China that doesn't end in 'st'? It has the biggest, newest, most daring and innovative buildings. It has the fastest trains...the most roads and cars. The richest. The poorest. It has everything.
It has people too... Smart, hardworking people. Instead of borrowing to boost their standards of living, the Chinese save their money in order to reduce their standard of living...boost the next generation's.
The Chinese have already pulled off a miracle. It has only been 32 years since Deng Xiaoping opened up China to making money. In that time, the nation has gone from a third world dump to the world's 2nd largest economy...whose growth rate continues to be shocking.
What's their secret? China is a zombie-free zone. The 'safety net' is thin here. There is plenty of corruption and inside dealing, no doubt. But people work hard...save their money...and expect to live by their own efforts.
But the Chinese have gotten a lot of help from America. The feds encouraged Americans to buy things they didn't need with money they didn't have. The Chinese merely took the orders...and the money. Now they have the biggest stash of dollars in the world, while the US has the biggest, stinkiest pile of debt the world has ever seen.
And more thoughts...
We have just had our best airport and hotel experiences ever. Arriving at our hotel - the China World Hotel in Beijing - the staff again met us at the entrance. They greeted us by name and showed us directly to our rooms. There was no waiting to check-in. There were no lines. There were no incompetent or surly flunkeys.
Then, we drove to the huge Beijing airport - the largest in the world. There, uniformed airline employees met us at the curb...took our luggage...and whisked us through the check-in security process. The whole thing took only minutes, with almost no waiting at any step. It was a pleasure.
*** 'You haven't seen the real China,' one of our Dear Readers who has lived in China for many years explained. 'You're just looking at the top cities. It would be like going to the US and only visiting New York and San Francisco. You wouldn't have a very good idea of what the country is like.
'If you go out to some of these second and third tier cities, you get another picture all together. They're pretty grim. And poor. And there are still millions of people who earn almost nothing.
'These poor people keep coming to the cities to find work. The government knows it has to keep the economy growing so that these people don't become a problem. But so far, I've been very impressed. The people running the country may be communists, but they're not stupid. And to tell you the truth, this is a much better system than we have in America.
'I don't know why the US would want to push democracy on the whole world. And I don't know why Hillary Clinton would want to lecture China about human rights either. China isn't intentionally killing people. China doesn't have troops in other countries. China is minding its own business...and building its economy - just like America used to do.
'And not having a democracy is really a good thing. A benign dictatorship can make the kind of changes you need to make. That's what they do here. They can do things that require huge capital investments but only pay off far in the future. They can do things that are unpopular, because they don't have to stand for election every 4 years.
'That's why the US is such a mess. We're digging ourselves a deeper and deeper hole each year. But nobody can stop it. Because every member of Congress has to face the voters. And the people who vote are also the people who benefit from government spending - especially teachers and retirees. So you can't fix the problem. It just gets worse and worse until it falls apart.
'Democracy is very overrated.'
Posted by NT at 22:08
Link
https://ntopinion.blogspot.com/
forex_trader_27988
Участник с Jan 26, 2011
1367 комментариев
May 19, 2011 at 08:56
Участник с May 27, 2011
63 комментариев
Jun 15, 2011 at 01:12
zzzero posted:
Where did the zero go to...
Does anyone know...
I was just curious...
Участник с May 27, 2011
63 комментариев
Jun 15, 2011 at 01:13
Участник с May 27, 2011
63 комментариев
Jun 15, 2011 at 01:15
Wednesday, June 15th
01:00 JPY BOJ Monthly Report
03:15 CHF PPI
04:30 GBP Claimant Count Change; Average Earnings Index
05:00 EUR Industrial Production
08:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales
08:30 USD Core CPI; CPI; Empire State Manufacturing Index
09:00 USD TIC Long-Term Purchases
09:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate; Industrial Production
10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
15:45 GBP BOE Gov King Speaks
18:00 NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment
21:00 AUD MI Inflation Expectations
21:30 AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales
Thursday, June 16th
03:15 CHF Industrial Production
03:30 CHF Libor Rate; SNB Monetary Policy Assessment; SNB Press COnference; SNB Financial Stability Report
04:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
04:30 GBP Retail Sales
05:00 EUR CPI; Core CPI
Tentative GBP Inflation Report Hearings
08:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases
08:30 USD Building Permits; Unemployment Claims; Current Account; Housing Starts
10:00 USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
19:50 JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
20:00 EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
Friday, June 17th
08:30 CAD Wholesale Sales
09:55 USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
01:00 JPY BOJ Monthly Report
03:15 CHF PPI
04:30 GBP Claimant Count Change; Average Earnings Index
05:00 EUR Industrial Production
08:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales
08:30 USD Core CPI; CPI; Empire State Manufacturing Index
09:00 USD TIC Long-Term Purchases
09:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate; Industrial Production
10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
15:45 GBP BOE Gov King Speaks
18:00 NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment
21:00 AUD MI Inflation Expectations
21:30 AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales
Thursday, June 16th
03:15 CHF Industrial Production
03:30 CHF Libor Rate; SNB Monetary Policy Assessment; SNB Press COnference; SNB Financial Stability Report
04:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
04:30 GBP Retail Sales
05:00 EUR CPI; Core CPI
Tentative GBP Inflation Report Hearings
08:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases
08:30 USD Building Permits; Unemployment Claims; Current Account; Housing Starts
10:00 USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
19:50 JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
20:00 EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
Friday, June 17th
08:30 CAD Wholesale Sales
09:55 USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Участник с May 27, 2011
63 комментариев
Jun 15, 2011 at 02:54
It should be clear to anyone that we have a bit of a debt problem. The government solutions jammed down our throats since 2008 have added $7 trillion of debt to the national balance sheet. The only thing keeping this house of cards from collapsing immediately has been the extremely low interest rates put in place by the Federal Reserve. The end of QE2 potentially could result in interest rates rising. If interest rates were to rise 2%, this country’s economic system would implode. Time is not on our side. The debt cannot be repaid. The debt cannot be serviced. The debt has destroyed this country. Years from now when historians ponder what caused the great American Empire to collapse, the answer on the exam will be:
It was the debt, dummy!
https://www.financialsense.com/contributors/james-quinn/it-is-the-debt-dummy
It was the debt, dummy!
https://www.financialsense.com/contributors/james-quinn/it-is-the-debt-dummy
Участник с May 27, 2011
63 комментариев
Jun 15, 2011 at 02:56
Участник с May 27, 2011
63 комментариев
Jun 15, 2011 at 02:57
Newbeepee posted:
And Now To Europe ... Please Read Me...
https://www.acting-man.com/?p=7938
Euro Area Sovereign Debt Keeps Plunging
The to and fro in the debate over how to proceed with Greece's rescue, now that Greece has clearly missed the fiscal target conditions set by its original bailout package, continues to bedevil the bond markets of all the de facto bankrupt peripheral euro area nations. As we noted in a recent missive, the debate in Germany over involving private creditors in the next phase of the Greek rescue has introduced considerable fresh uncertainties. It looked at first as though Germany was going to climb down from this demand and adopt the ECB line. However, the latest news is that the German governing coalition is now 'debating how to involve private creditors'.
According to Reuters:
“German members of parliament are discussing on Thursday a joint motion for a resolution demanding the fair participation of private creditors in future aid to Greece, a draft of the paper obtained by Reuters said.
The deputies from all three parties in Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right coalition are demanding to have a say in agreements for new aid packages, the resolution said.
'The German parliament urges the government to only agree to new financial aid for Greece if an appropriate participation of private creditors has been introduced,' the document said. 'That way Greece's ability to carry its debt and so that a fair distribution between public and private sides can be reached.'
The document is not binding for the German government, but can be seen as a guideline for its leaders when they enter negotiations with other EU leaders.
Policymakers aim to have a deal ready for a June 20 meeting of EU finance ministers and euro zone governments have edged closer to a compromise this week. How to involve the private sector, however, has been hotly contested within the single currency bloc.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble in a letter earlier this week proposed a swap in which private debt holders would trade in their Greek government bonds for new ones, giving Greece an extra seven years to work through its debt. France on the other hand, was against any form of debt restructuring, but sources familiar with government thinking said on Thursday it could back a private-sector rollover if a voluntary formula could be found to avoid wider damage markets.
The resolution also demands for renewed IMF participation for any new rescue package and demands Greece produce reliable earnings from privatizations.”
(our emphasis)
Note the French demand that any participation of private creditors has to be 'voluntary'. How is such 'voluntary participation' going to be negotiated before the looming deadline on June 20? It is simply impossible. As we have noted before, Moody's and Fitch both have already let it be known that they will not consider such an agreement to be 'voluntary' – and that creates a considerable stumbling block, as the ECB likewise insists that any haircut to private creditors arrived at by compulsion will be deemed unacceptable. This is to say, it will then no longer accept Greek government bonds in repos. Jean-Claude Trichet has frequently stressed these points in yesterday's ECB press conference, which can be watched in its entirety here.
It should be perfectly clear that any private creditor participation – as desirable and necessary as it surely is – can not be considered 'voluntary' if it is based on 'resolutions' issued by national parliaments or governments. This is a catch-22 situation that seems intractable.
Moreover, another potential stumbling block to the EU's bailout policies is slowly but surely taking shape in Germany – the German Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe is beginning to hear arguments in the constitutional challenges to the aid package raised by several prominent economists and politicians. Although the court has proved pliable in the past and has tended to side with the German government's line in EU related questions, we would submit that there is no guarantee this will continue. Clearly, if the judges were to resort to a strict interpretation of Germany's constitution and how it relates to the Lisbon treaty's obligations and rights (which were already once modified due to an earlier court ruling – this was the first bone the court threw to euro-skeptics, see articles Mr. Gauweiler's Challenge and Gauweiler's Challenge – an update), the court would not be able to dismiss the challenges entirely. More likely it would have to issue a directive asking the government to once again renegotiate the requisite passages of the Lisbon treaty. If this were coupled with a temporary injunction against further disbursements to the EFSF, the entire bailout scheme would immediately collapse. As Germany's FAZ reports:
“Das Bundesverfassungsgericht wird am 5. Juli über die Klagen gegen den Euro-Rettungsschirm sowie gegen die Griechenland-Hilfe mündlich verhandeln. Das gab das Gericht am Donnerstag bekannt. Damit wird die Bundesregierung vor dem Gericht begründen müssen, inwiefern die Maßnahmen zur Stabilisierung der europäischen Währung mit dem Grundgesetz und womöglich mit europäischem Recht übereinstimmen. Ursprünglich war im Zweiten Senat erwogen worden, nicht öffentlich zu verhandeln. Doch diese Haltung hat sich offenbar im Zuge der Beratungen verändert. Zu rechnen ist mit einer grundlegenden Entscheidung etwa zum Budgetrecht des Parlaments.
Geklagt hat eine Gruppe um den Euro-Skeptiker Joachim Starbatty. Die Hilfen sind aus Starbattys Sicht mit den EU-Verträgen nicht vereinbar. Die Kläger befürchten, dass sich die EU langfristig zu einer Finanz- und Transferunion entwickelt. Im Rahmen des Rettungsschirms kann Deutschland Garantien für Kredite an Euro-Länder in Höhe von bis zu 148 Milliarden Euro abgeben. Insgesamt hat er ein Volumen von 750 Milliarden Euro. Er soll die Finanzmärkte von weiteren Spekulationen über Staatspleiten in der Euro-Zone abbringen.”
translation:
“The federal constitutional court will hear oral arguments in the challenges against the euro 'rescue umbrella' as well as the aid to Greece on July 5. This was announced by the court on Thursday. The federal government will have to explain to the court how the measures to stabilize the euro currency accord with the constitution and European law. Originally the second senate considered a trial in camera [a non-public trial, ed.]. However, this view appears to have changed in the course of recent deliberations. One must expect a fundamental decision, for instance regarding the budgetary rights of parliament. Plaintiff is a group around the euro-skeptic Joachim Starbatty. In Starbatty's view, the aid program is not compatible with the EU treaties [he's right, ed.]. The plaintiffs fear that the EU is going to develop into a fiscal and transfer union in the long term [right again, ed.]. In the framework of the rescue package, Germany can issue credit guarantees for euro area member nations in the amount of up to € 148 billion. Overall, the size of the rescue package amounts to € 750 billion. It is designed to dissuade financial markets for further speculation on national bankruptcies within the euro area [hasn't worked so far, ed.].”
More potential problems are lurking elsewhere. In Finland, it has proved impossible to form a government that excludes the euro-skeptic and fiercely anti-bailout 'True Finns' party (see: 'Katainen turns to Euro-skeptics amid Impasse'). Thus the negotiations over the coalition government will now have to include the True Finns. Should they become member of the new government, one should expect that Finland will at a bare minimum demand significant alterations to the current bailout arrangements. It may even cease to agree to any further bailouts. Since the euro-group can only make unanimous decisions, this would significantly upset the apple cart.
Moreover, there are not only daily demonstrations and strikes in Greece that are paralyzing the Greek economy, but there are even more bad news emerging lately that may eventually lead to a 'non-linear market dislocation' (i.e., a panic). For instance, Greece's Qu.1 GDP has come in way below expectations, shrinking by 5.5%. As Reuters reports:
“Greece's economy
Участник с May 27, 2011
63 комментариев
Jun 21, 2011 at 01:47
If Greece Defaults, What Happens to Portugal and Ireland - and Spain?
By Gonzalo Lira06/20/2011
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Font Size So it looks like Greece is about to go down the toilet.
What the Eurocrats Think of Greece
Last year, Greece got a bailout—so this year (wouldn’t you know it), they want another.
But it’s looking like France, Germany, Holland and the UK are all balking at the reality of having to save the Greek’s hide once again. Boris Johnson, the flamboyant Mayor of London,openly called for Greece to exit the euro in an op-ed in the Telegraph. Several of the participants in the negotiations are asking for Greece to make deeper austerity cuts first, before getting more bailout money—
—and of course, the Greeks won’t do that: Their population won’t stand for any more austerity measures, as they believe (correctly) that the reason Greece is in the hole it’s in is because rich people shirk their obligation to pay taxes. Also, the Greek people are getting handouts left and right from their government—paid for with deficits and debt.
So no European bailout, no money for Greece to continue funding its government.
So like I said, Greece is about to go down the toilet.
So now that we can, we have to step back, look up, and figure out what’s coming up next on the horizon, once Greece defaults.
The answer is obvious: Portugal, Ireland and Spain are coming up—and coming up fast.
Specifically, Portuguese and Irish debt: As of this writing, the 10-year Greek bond is yielding a staggering 17.34%. But the Irish 10-year bond? Safe as houses, you ask?
No! Irish 10-year debt is yielding 11.54% , while the Portuguese 10-year is at 11.15%.
So regardless of whether or not the Greek situation is somehow fixed and smoothed over with more money—“stabilized”, in that wonderfully bloodless turn of phrase—Ireland and Portugal are soon enough going to be needing another bailout of their own.
Continue Reading
https://www.financialsense.com/contributors/gonzalo-lira/2011/06/20/if-greece-defaults-what-happens-to-portugal-and-ireland-and-spain
By Gonzalo Lira06/20/2011
Share
Font Size So it looks like Greece is about to go down the toilet.
What the Eurocrats Think of Greece
Last year, Greece got a bailout—so this year (wouldn’t you know it), they want another.
But it’s looking like France, Germany, Holland and the UK are all balking at the reality of having to save the Greek’s hide once again. Boris Johnson, the flamboyant Mayor of London,openly called for Greece to exit the euro in an op-ed in the Telegraph. Several of the participants in the negotiations are asking for Greece to make deeper austerity cuts first, before getting more bailout money—
—and of course, the Greeks won’t do that: Their population won’t stand for any more austerity measures, as they believe (correctly) that the reason Greece is in the hole it’s in is because rich people shirk their obligation to pay taxes. Also, the Greek people are getting handouts left and right from their government—paid for with deficits and debt.
So no European bailout, no money for Greece to continue funding its government.
So like I said, Greece is about to go down the toilet.
So now that we can, we have to step back, look up, and figure out what’s coming up next on the horizon, once Greece defaults.
The answer is obvious: Portugal, Ireland and Spain are coming up—and coming up fast.
Specifically, Portuguese and Irish debt: As of this writing, the 10-year Greek bond is yielding a staggering 17.34%. But the Irish 10-year bond? Safe as houses, you ask?
No! Irish 10-year debt is yielding 11.54% , while the Portuguese 10-year is at 11.15%.
So regardless of whether or not the Greek situation is somehow fixed and smoothed over with more money—“stabilized”, in that wonderfully bloodless turn of phrase—Ireland and Portugal are soon enough going to be needing another bailout of their own.
Continue Reading
https://www.financialsense.com/contributors/gonzalo-lira/2011/06/20/if-greece-defaults-what-happens-to-portugal-and-ireland-and-spain
Участник с Nov 18, 2009
735 комментариев
Jun 21, 2011 at 12:41
Good article indeed, Bruce. The Boris Johnson article mentioned in there, is an interesting one too. Why keep pouring billions into a dream. Nonsense. I don't want the Yuro to crash or disappear but a little drop wouldn't do any harm. I'm short on almost everything that has an 'E' in it. Sold EUR against almost every civilised currency. I wanna see the EUR lower than my nan's tits. 😄
Surround yourself with people whose eyes light up when they see you and who have no agenda for your reform.
Участник с Jan 24, 2011
87 комментариев
Jul 18, 2011 at 00:16
speki posted:
Good article indeed, Bruce. The Boris Johnson article mentioned in there, is an interesting one too. Why keep pouring billions into a dream. Nonsense. I don't want the Yuro to crash or disappear but a little drop wouldn't do any harm. I'm short on almost everything that has an 'E' in it. Sold EUR against almost every civilised currency. I wanna see the EUR lower than my nan's tits. 😄
Good Day Friend
Do you still post on Oanda. The forum is now closed. The last new member was The Chief. I do not post there for the moment. Please let me know and thanks.
Bruce
Участник с Jan 24, 2011
87 комментариев
Jul 20, 2011 at 03:38
Hear the below economic numbers, instant analysis - live. Click for a GUEST PASS.
Wednesday, July 20th
02:00 EUR German PPI
04:30 GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
08:30 CAD Wholesale Sales
10:00 USD Existing Home Sales
10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
10:30 CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
11:15 CAD BOC Press Conference
19:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence
19:50 JPY Trade Balance
21:30 AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
22:30 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
Thursday, July 21st
02:00 CHF Trade Balance
03:00 EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI; French Flash Services PMI
03:30 EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI; German Flash Services PMI
04:00 EUR Current Account; Flash Manufacturing PMI; Flash Services PMI
04:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing; Retail Sales
05:00 CHF ZEW Economic Expectations
08:30 USD Unemployment Claims
10:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies; Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
21:30 AUD Import Prices
Friday, July 22nd
04:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate
05:00 EUR Industrial New Orders
07:00 CAD Core CPI; CPI
08:30 CAD Core Retail Sales; Retail Sales
Wednesday, July 20th
02:00 EUR German PPI
04:30 GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
08:30 CAD Wholesale Sales
10:00 USD Existing Home Sales
10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
10:30 CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
11:15 CAD BOC Press Conference
19:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence
19:50 JPY Trade Balance
21:30 AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
22:30 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
Thursday, July 21st
02:00 CHF Trade Balance
03:00 EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI; French Flash Services PMI
03:30 EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI; German Flash Services PMI
04:00 EUR Current Account; Flash Manufacturing PMI; Flash Services PMI
04:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing; Retail Sales
05:00 CHF ZEW Economic Expectations
08:30 USD Unemployment Claims
10:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies; Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
21:30 AUD Import Prices
Friday, July 22nd
04:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate
05:00 EUR Industrial New Orders
07:00 CAD Core CPI; CPI
08:30 CAD Core Retail Sales; Retail Sales
