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Neptune FX EA (By BrianHarris96 )

Прибыль : +699.03%
Просадка 55.53%
Пипс: 10648.8
Сделки 2363
Выигрыш:
Потери:
Тип: Реальный
Кредитное плечо: 1:500
Трейдинг: Автоматически

Neptune FX EA Обсуждение

BrianHarris96
Jul 23 at 08:56
221 комментариев
Our European economist summed up the ECB well with the headline to his piece “More dovish on paper, less clear in practice”. They went for the more dovish level of inflation in the rates forward guidance “at 2%” but didn’t really tell us how they plan to get there. Lagarde’s passed the opportunity to clarify much in her press conference, sticking to the script. Our strategist this morning commented that the European swaps market doesn’t price them getting to those appropriate levels of inflation in the next decade. Inflation forecasts in the next staff forecasts in Sep will hopefully shed more light and we should learn more on the QE side of things at the Sep and/or Dec meetings and that will be the next focus for ECB watchers. Today we get European PMIs and we will be watching for any impact of rising COVID cases on the continent. Barring an astonishing beat or miss in PMIs today, the Euro is going to struggle for a narrative more than any other currency in the G10 world and will likely be pulled around as a lower beta version of cyclical currencies with sentiment going forwards.

BrianHarris96
Jul 23 at 12:34
221 комментариев
Sterling retained its positive tone yesterday despite some more dovish comments from Broadbent, case numbers are continuing to show signs of a plateau which is encouraging while the short term technical setup remains positive. Indeed we saw the second day of HF demand (z-score~1) after 6 straight sessions of selling while RM were buyers one more (4 on the bounce) albeit in smaller size. Retail sales beat marginally this morning but failed to stir the market as we look forward to flash PMIs later at 9.30 BST - clearly there is much that we have seen the peak in the series for now so some big number should get this recovery in risk (and yields) really kicking on. With that I bid you farewell for two weeks as I attempt to escape the UK for what feels like a very opportunistic break. Hopefully the aforementioned plateau takes hold, the gamble pays off and I come back to a very different environment or maybe hopefully I just make it back. Good Luck. JPY

BrianHarris96
Jul 26 at 08:51
221 комментариев
EURUSD:
Having been out for a week, I was hoping to return with the market having found clarity, yet there appears to be more questions than answers once again. Volatile, outsized moves which end up mean reverting seems to have chopped people to bits and leaves us with even less appetite for risk. What hasn’t changed is questions around growth and delta, the JP economics team have been chipping away at near term GDP forecasts in recent days, and leaves me with a bias to be short usdjpy despite last week’s turnaround. Equities look too high still and I don’t see much of an impetus to get yields headed markedly higher in the next few weeks. In the euro, the ECB meeting passed without any excitement and it remains glued to 1.18. pretty much where it was before I went away. Whilst the forward guidance on the margin sounded more dovish, it remains to be seen whether policy action will match going forward, and this will play out over several meetings. The overall bias is for the euro to drift lower given its lack of rally even with the market somewhat short in my opinion and the markets in risk off mode over the course of last week a little telling. But at present I don’t think it’s worth positioning for with any great conviction.

BrianHarris96
Jul 27 at 13:26
221 комментариев
GBPUSD:
Cable was higher against both the USD and EURO yesterday as once again, GBP found support from the rally in risk markets. The view over the last few weeks has been to be long and while this has proven to be a difficult exercise, we are in the mind-set of buying weakness. The original view around this trade, was to be long going into the BoE after Ramsden and Saunders delivered hawkish messages and while this has subsequently found some opposition from the likes of Ben Broadbent, I still believe they will deliver an upbeat message. Throw into the mix, my belief that we may well be further down the road in this round of Covid cases than feared, the UK reported its 6th consecutive fall and being long GBP makes sense. Yes hospitalisations are rising, but this is to be expected due to the lag effect and provided they don’t escalate at an alarming rate, GBP should continue to trade well. One argument is that there is less testing due to the school holidays, but my counter argument is that there will be less interaction and therefore less transmission. The franchise continues to see Real Money buying of GBP, with HF’s now buying with us for the last 4 days also. But as we have seen, sentiment changes very quickly, so I am leaving room to add on weakness as the week progresses. GBPUSD support will be found initially at 1.3790/1.3800 and then 1.3700/20 with resistance at 1.3900. EUR/GBP support comes in at 0.8500 recent low, with resistance at 0.8600/20.

BrianHarris96
Jul 28 at 08:58
221 комментариев
GBPUSD:
A relatively uneventful session, sprung into life on what looked like early month end rebalancing flow, which saw GBP/USD rally from1.3820 to 1.3892 and EUR/GBP fall from 0.8540 to 0.8514. The move at the end of the London session was dramatic and came even as Equities came under pressure, but has shown little sign of reversing the move at this point. EUR/GBP wasn’t trading particularly well until this flow, but the move was welcomed and I retain a core EUR/GBP short as we approach support at 0.8500. A break of this level puts key support at 0.8470/75 (July Low) firmly in view. Covid cases declined for the 7th consecutive day which is encouraging and GBP also likely found support from a report that the EU has backed off a threat of imminent legal action against the UK over the Northern Ireland protocol, suggesting that the 2 sides are trying to work through their differences. The flow dynamic is also encouraging as Real money continue to buy GBP with us (6 out of the last 7 sessions). I am short EUR/GBP, but looking to add GBP longs on a dip, which may come from Value date month end U.S. Corp demand for USD’s. GBP resistance is at 1.3900/10 with support now at 1.3800.

techwormi
Aug 20 at 20:05
2 комментариев
This is great information would love to know more about GBP/USD rally and also about EUR/GBP fall if anyone could help

Thanks in advance

techwormi
Aug 27 at 13:17
2 комментариев
techwormi posted:
This is great information would love to know more about GBP/USD rally and also about EUR/GBP fall if anyone could help
<a href='https://www.shvm.online/indfx.html'>INDFX</a>


Thanks in advance


Please help me in this

BrianHarris96
Sep 03 at 08:28
221 комментариев
Narrow ranges across the FX complex today ahead of the keenly watched August NFP print. Our Econ are expecting +850k as activity continues tonormalize; which would be enough to keep a Sept taper announcement from the Fed on the table. Very little idiosyncrasies for currencies to take directionfrom through the day, as the highlight was news that Japan’s PM Suga will not stand in the LDP election on Sept 29, ostensibly putting the reins now toKishida. A large fiscal package is still to be expected which should limit any immediate impact to fixed income – Japanese equities outperforming Asianbourses on the day.

BrianHarris96
Sep 08 at 06:59
221 комментариев
Asia overnight
Higher UST yields as well as the prospect of the Fed and ECB winding back
stimulus saw risk sentiment sour a little in the Asian session. Chinese stocks
were also weighed down by a further ratings downgrade on the bonds of a large
property developer as well as market talk of more measures being introduced by
Chinese policymakers to curb the property market. Most Asian equities were
trading modestly lower at the time of writing. S&P 500 futures were trading
slightly in the green. G10 FX moved in the opposite direction to equities with the
Antipodean currencies being modest outperformers and the USD and JPY the
underperformers during the Asian session. The GBP was also an underperformer
during the session.

BrianHarris96
Sep 08 at 08:00
221 комментариев
CAD: BoC to leave asset purchases unchanged, risk of pushing back start
date to rate hikes
While the RBA has already tapered its asset purchases this week and the ECB is
expected to undertake a ‘technical taper’ of its PEPP asset purchases later this
week, we expect the BoC to leave its asset purchases and policy rate
unchanged. The BoC one of the early G10 central banks to starting tapering its
asset purchases and did so in July. We expect a soft patch of data in Q2,
including a surprise contraction in GDP, to cause the central bank to hold off
further asset purchase tapering at this meeting. While USD/CAD remains
sensitive to global risk sentiment, US-Canadian long-end yields are also a strong
driver of the exchange rate. So, the reaction of long-end Canadian yields to the
BoC meeting will be important for the currency. The risk around the meeting is
that the BoC could push back the timing of when it expects the economy’s excess
capacity to be absorbed and therefore of when it will begin raising rates. BoC’s
current projection is late 2022, and the risk is that the central bank pushes this
date back to early 2023, according our economist.

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