Trend Reversal Algorithmic System for Maximum Risk Reward Ratio (by TJdonovan) Snabbstatistik
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Trend Reversal Algorithmic System for Maximum Risk Reward Ratio Diskussion
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TJdonovan

Medlem sedan Aug 19, 2015  77 poster Tom J. Donovan (TJdonovan) Nov 04 2015 at 16:49
USD pushes higher still after in-line US October ADP payrolls change (+182k vs. +180k exp., though with a -10k revision to the Sep.).

Interesting to see the market aggressively leaning on a break of key levels in USD pairs before we even get a peek at the ISM non-manufacturing later today and especially the Friday jobs numbers from the US.

The reaction to the ADP data suggests that it may merely require in-line data on Friday or just a minor upside beat to consensus expectations (around +180k) to keep us on track for a Fed rate hike at the December FOMC meeting, provided, of course, that we don't have any major negative surprises for the November data cycle.

For now - watching the 1.0900 area in EURUSD for a break and the 121.50 area in USDJPY for the same - both of which look to be at least tested today, though we'll require Friday for full confirmation that the USD bull can continue charging.

TJdonovan

Medlem sedan Aug 19, 2015  77 poster Tom J. Donovan (TJdonovan) Nov 06 2015 at 16:19
Strong NFPs suggest December lift-off.

The significantly strong US nonfarm payroll report which came in at 271k has the market now pricing in a Fed rate hike in December.
However, while US labour markets are robust there has been little transmission into inflation.
Without clear pressure on the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator, it’s unlikely they will launch in December.

Elsewhere, the Bank of England, Norges Bank and Bank of Thailand all delivered a dovish outlook in their policy meetings. Whatever happens in December, it’s clear that monetary policy divergence theme will entrench itself as a primary driver of asset pricing in 2016.

Finally, Swiss CPI printed in negative territory again, indicating that the overvalued CHF continues to have a damaging impact on the economy. Yet, with QE2 looming in Europe the SNB has limited options to defend the CHF from further appreciation and strong deflationary effects.

TJdonovan

Medlem sedan Aug 19, 2015  77 poster Tom J. Donovan (TJdonovan) Nov 07 2015 at 16:56
Canada released its best employment report in four months, posting a better-than-expected increase of 44,000 jobs and a 0.1% drop in the unemployment rate to 7%. Canada has gained 143,000 jobs compared to a year earlier and best of all, they were all full-time.

Unfortunately, this report was overshadowed by the US NFP report but should serve to slow Canadian dollar losses.

TJdonovan

Medlem sedan Aug 19, 2015  77 poster Tom J. Donovan (TJdonovan) Nov 07 2015 at 16:56
Europe is becoming the latest battleground for oil producers seeking to maintain market share amid a global oversupply. Russia has protested Saudi sales to northern Europe, while also expanding its own share of Asian markets that were typically dominated by Middle Eastern producers. Iran will intensify competition next year as it seeks to regain lost customers following a nuclear deal with world powers that will lift sanctions.

TJdonovan

Medlem sedan Aug 19, 2015  77 poster Tom J. Donovan (TJdonovan) Nov 07 2015 at 16:57
Investors sharply lifted bets that the central bank will raise the benchmark rate at its Dec. 15-16 meeting after news that employers added 271,000 workers to payrolls, the biggest gain this year. The challenge will be reining in any expectations of a faster pace of tightening than Fed officials themselves foresee.

TJdonovan

Medlem sedan Aug 19, 2015  77 poster Tom J. Donovan (TJdonovan) Nov 07 2015 at 22:18
The USD has gotten a boost versus major, with only commodity pairs aided by the surge in oil prices able to resist the rise of the greenback.

The FOMC statement and Chair Yellen’s testimony on Wednesday have made an interest rate hike in December a live possibility.

Economic data has been positive overall. A narrower trade deficit than expected and impressive non-manufacturing PMI results have validated the Fed’s comments even as the ADP private payrolls and unemployment claims slightly missed expectations ahead of the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report.

TJdonovan

Medlem sedan Aug 19, 2015  77 poster Tom J. Donovan (TJdonovan) Nov 07 2015 at 22:18
The NFP is the biggest indicator in forex and is forecasted to show 179,000 new jobs. The convergence of a hawkish Fed that has marked December as a possibility and a strong NFP could result in the arrival of the much-awaited interest rate hike.

TJdonovan

Medlem sedan Aug 19, 2015  77 poster Tom J. Donovan (TJdonovan) Nov 07 2015 at 22:18
UNDERSTANDING THE U.S. NONFARM PAYROLLS REPORT
 
Published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the NFP report includes the total number of workers (excluding certain industries) that are added to the U.S. economy on a monthly basis.

It is published the first Friday of every month at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Of note, it affects all major currency pairs by ratcheting up FX market volatility.

TJdonovan

Medlem sedan Aug 19, 2015  77 poster Tom J. Donovan (TJdonovan) Nov 13 2015 at 04:39
A day ahead of the release of the U.S. retail sales figures six Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members delivered speeches that were seen as hawkish, dovish and something in between. The market expectation as measured by the CME FedWatch tool puts the rate hike at 69.8 percent probability but as usual Fed members comments confused markets more than reassured them on the final outcome on December 16.

U.S. retail sales and the core data excluding automobiles have underperformed since coming in flat in August. Consumer demand is needed for sustained growth and outside of car sales the other sectors are struggling. The forecast calls for a 0.4 percent core retail sales change and a 0.3 percent of retail sales in October.

Lower prices in food and energy have affected the overall positive demand, but a turnaround is expected in the coming holiday season. Strong core retail sales could put the Fed one step closer to finally raising benchmark interest rates, but a weak indicator would raise further questions about the American economy's momentum after a strong jobs report. U.S. retail sales will be published on Friday November 13 at 8:30 am EST.

DIAMONDong

Medlem sedan Nov 13, 2015  3 poster DIAMONDong Nov 13 2015 at 10:35
Hi Tom
how are you, I interested your EA
what is your system strategies ?
how much you are selling ?
thanks
ONG

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USDJPY 105.718 USDCAD 1.319

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