Good support on the EURUSD around the 1.2060 level which has touched on five ocassions during the last two months. The 200 month EMA is exactly at that level and that is why the pair is having trouble breaking below it. To the downside, the 1.2000 level could also act as support.
Is the EURUSD dropping due to the impact of Covid, because the euro weakened on Thursday after the European Central Bank said that there is more stimulus fighting the coronavirus impact, but did not lower interest rates with one currency falling to the day's low as investors rushed for dollars?
The euro bounced nicely off support yesterday, a lot of euros have been sold on theweek so the next couple of sessions will be fairly instructive. Kaplan was the first Fedgovernor to vocalise support for tapering on the week yesterday, but overall US yieldsseem fairly relaxed as we head into payrolls today. If that price action is repeated todaypost US data, think we will see more of the same in terms of currency movements, abias to own commodity/growth currencies and gentle support for the euro. A verystrong payrolls print will likely see some pressure in fixed income and potentially givethe dollar a lift (1.5m+ on the headline?) especially if the equity market doesn’t like theprospect of taper chat. I retain a small long bias in the euro whilst we stay above1.1980/1.2000 and a move through and close above 1.2110 I believe will increaseinterest in the euro up move once again.